XRP (XRP) has fallen greater than 30% over the previous month, pressured by a broader market downturn that intensified amid escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff considerations.
On the identical time, realized losses have spiked, and change inflows have elevated sharply. These on-chain indicators recommend rising market stress for the altcoin. Nevertheless, with capitulation metrics rising, the query is whether or not a possible backside is forming.
XRP Struggles Amid Massive Holder Transfers and Rising Realized Losses
Massive holder exercise has heightened concern over XRP’s near-term value outlook. Analyst Darkfost famous that these holders transferred greater than 31 million XRP to Binance in sooner or later, amounting to about $45 million in potential promote stress.
On-chain information confirmed that the majority of those transfers originated from bigger holder cohorts. Whale wallets holding over 1 million XRP accounted for 14.49 million XRP of the overall influx.
Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million XRP contributed 14.236 million XRP. Smaller cohorts contributed comparatively modest quantities, together with 2.9 million XRP from wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 tokens.
XRP Influx to Binance. Supply: CryptoQuant
The focus of inflows amongst giant holders is noteworthy. Alternate flows of this dimension sometimes increase considerations about potential promoting stress, as transfers to centralized platforms might point out that tokens are being positioned for potential liquidation.
Nevertheless, it is very important observe that easy transfers to exchanges don’t verify that gross sales will happen. Tokens can stay idle on buying and selling platforms for prolonged intervals, be used as collateral, or be moved for inside rebalancing functions.
Whereas the inflows improve the danger of near-term volatility, they don’t assure speedy draw back.
“Altogether, this represents a sudden potential sell-side pressure of nearly $45 million that warrants close monitoring. Should this selling pressure persist, XRP may struggle to recover from its ongoing correction in the near term,” the analyst wrote.
In the meantime, the transfers coincide with rising stress amongst XRP holders. Information from Santiment exhibits that XRP’s realized losses have climbed to their highest degree since 2022.
Such spikes sometimes happen when buyers promote at costs under their value foundation, reflecting capitulation or panic-driven exits in periods of heightened volatility.
🚨 XRP in a vital zone
XRP is struggling to reclaim and maintain above its Realized Value.
The Realized Value is among the most essential onchain ranges, because it represents the aggregated common value paid for the circulating provide.
When an asset stays under this degree, it… pic.twitter.com/CK5YPyDlqV
— Alphractal (@Alphractal) February 22, 2026
Additional reinforcing the cautious outlook, institutional demand seems to be cooling. That is evidenced by the declining XRP ETF inflows.
Even with strategic expansions and ecosystem improvement, XRP has struggled to decouple from the broader market weak spot, suggesting that macro situations proceed to outweigh project-specific progress.
Is XRP Nearing a Backside? On-Chain Information Factors to Capitulation Part
Regardless of the spike in XRP realized losses, Santiment famous that such developments function an “important price signal.” The publish added that traditionally, these spikes typically seem close to market bottoms.
Santiment defined that excessive worry tends to peak earlier than the worth. As soon as promoting stress turns into exhausted, even modest new demand can drive a rebound. Whereas this doesn’t assure an instantaneous rally, it will increase the chance of a reduction bounce.
“When the previous weekly milestone of -1.93B in realized losses occurred 39 months ago, $XRP proceeded to jump +114% over the next 8 months,” the publish learn.
As well as, BeInCrypto just lately highlighted that the Market Worth to Realized Worth (MVRV) is mirroring a setup final noticed in July 2024. This was adopted by a value rally.
That mentioned, historic precedents ought to be interpreted cautiously. Market construction, liquidity situations, and macroeconomic elements differ throughout cycles.
