Bitcoin’s newest correction rattled merchants. BTC value dropped from above $120,800 to just about $102,000 earlier than bouncing again nearly 9% to over $111,000. Whereas altcoins like Ethereum and XRP fell over 13%, Bitcoin’s decline of seven% at press time reveals it held up significantly better — hinting at underlying energy even amid heavy liquidations.
Nonetheless, the large query stays: Can Bitcoin keep above $100,000, or will the value drop prolong decrease than this key psychological stage quickly? Three charts maintain the reply.
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Holders Rise and Veterans Keep Calm Amid The Crash
The primary signal of assist comes from on-chain holder conduct.
Regardless of the crash, the full variety of Bitcoin holders elevated from 56.92 million to 56.98 million since yesterday, displaying that buyers had been including publicity as costs dropped. That’s typical of dip-buying conviction, not panic promoting.
Bitcoin Holders Enhance: Santiment
The Spent Cash Age Bands (SCAB) again this up. This metric tracks the age of cash being moved — in brief, whether or not older or newer holders are spending their Bitcoin.
When the crash started on October 10, the general SCAB stood round 17,100 BTC, whereas the 180–365–day band (pink) was close to 9,995 BTC, and the 365–day–2–yr band (blue) was near 2,452 BTC.
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Because the sell-off unfolded, the general SCAB rose sharply to 23,086 BTC, confirming a spike in spending exercise amongst newer holders.
In distinction, the pink band eased barely to 9,646 BTC, and the blue band dropped sharply to 535 BTC — clear proof that long-term holders stayed quiet.
Which means that the panic promoting was largely led by newer or mid-term wallets, whereas the veteran holders continued holding. And veterans normally maintain on until they count on enormous value drops, like one thing beneath the $100,000 mark.
When long-term holders keep inactive and the full holder base grows, it normally indicators that robust fingers are changing the market’s weak fingers. That’s the type of reset that stabilizes a sentiment-driven drop earlier than the subsequent leg increased.
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Bitcoin Worth Setup Flips From Bearish to Bullish
Bitcoin’s value motion tells a clearer story. The latest crash wasn’t purely sentiment-driven — it adopted a technical setup that usually marks turning factors.
The important thing driver was a bearish divergence on the Relative Energy Index (RSI), which measures shopping for and promoting momentum on a scale of 0 to 100.
A divergence types when the RSI and value transfer in reverse instructions — for instance, when the value makes a better excessive however the RSI makes a decrease excessive. This sample normally indicators that momentum is weakening earlier than a reversal.
That’s precisely what occurred between mid-July and early October. Bitcoin made new highs on the chart, however RSI failed to verify them, making a decrease excessive.
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The end result was a pointy 19.1% correction (yesterday), nearly an identical to an earlier divergence-led drop this yr of over 14%. These setups present how strongly Bitcoin reacts to RSI indicators.
Now, the sample has flipped. Between September 25 and October 11, a bullish divergence appeared — value made a decrease low whereas RSI made a better low. This means that promoting strain is shedding energy, and momentum could also be quietly constructing for a rebound.
At press time, Bitcoin trades close to $111,600, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci stage ($111,400). A every day shut above this stage might affirm renewed energy towards $113,600, $116,800, and $120,800.
The invalidation level sits beneath $109,100, with draw back publicity restricted to $106,400 and $101,900, making a drop beneath $100,000 unlikely within the quick time period. Solely a every day candle shut beneath $101,900 can push the Bitcoin value beneath $100,000.
