Does “Wicked: For Good”‘s humongous first weekend on the field workplace, regardless of criticism of its creative advantage, imply that up is down? Is it the 80s – does dangerous imply good once more?
Or, do audiences simply not care what film critics assume? However wait, would not that imply Comcast, who personal NBC and Common, truly knew what it was doing when it break up this kid-friendly mega blockbuster in two and launched it on an empty weekend throughout peak go-to-the-movies-with-your-family season in back-to-back years? Heavens, no, it could not be!
Sarcasm apart, that is precisely what occurred. Personally, I am most inquisitive about what this lesson means for NBCUniversal’s place within the streaming wars, the place Depraved’s success is a palpable problem to Disney, Paramount, Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery, and even Apple.
In a completely vital vacation season for Disney, Depraved’s success would be the measuring stick. Moreover, in a crowded panorama, blockbuster success paired with NBC’s rising sports activities choices might assist separate Peacock from the streaming pack.
It additionally would not be a streaming article with out mentioning the Warner Bros. sale implications of all of it…
This is the fact: Surprisingly, the second and last a part of the Broadway musical-inspired movie sensation even managed to outperform the primary, because the Wall Avenue Journal stories:
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“The U.S and Canada total of $150 million, one of the biggest domestic openings of the year… Last year the first “Wicked” opened to $112.5 million domestically on the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend.”
That is no small feat, on condition that the movie trade limped by means of Q3 (and This fall). I’ve damaged all of it down based mostly on my largest takeaways: 1) The remainder of the vacation slate is now beneath even larger strain, and a pair of) blockbuster success strengthens NBCU’s sports-focused pole place.
Vacation films 2025 rely on three movies
I’ve mentioned it earlier than, and I am going to say it once more – for movie studios, 2025 to this point has been a case of nice begin into banana peel-slip, fall, and possible harm.
Q1 and Q2 revenues have been up for studios and theater chains alike, as evidenced by AMC reported $2.3 billion in income (14% higher than the identical interval in 2024) per their August eleventh Securities and Change Fee 8-Ok.
Then got here October. Disney’s “Tron: Ares” flopped, leaving a light-weight cycle-sized gap of their steadiness books. Warner Bros. Paul Thomas Anderson darling “One Battle After Another” did a reverse-Depraved, garnering reward however failing to catch the zeitgeist. Common’s “Black Phone 2” was a decently worthwhile indie horror, however that wasn’t going to chop it. All informed, it was the worst October on the home field workplace since 1998, per Field Workplace Mojo.
So, the field workplace was set to depend on three blockbusters to place October within the rearview and save 2025, one from NBCUniversal and two from Disney. As Selection reported:
Welp, “Wicked: For Good” has labored its magic. Now it is time for Disney’s choices to step up.
Depraved places strain on Disney, Marvel Studios’ vacation slate
On condition that Comcast/NBCU are Disney’s direct rival in movies, streaming, and parks – and are hoping to make the ability transfer of buying Warner Bros. Discovery – one might argue that Depraved’s efficiency places even larger strain on Zootopia and Avatar. Actually, I am arguing that, proper now.
The strain on the Disney vacation slate has been exacerbated by a) Disney doubling down on its content material choices, and b) Marvel’s historic 2025 underperformance.
Disney has numerous religion within the potential of their superior mental property (IP) – assume franchises with recognizable characters – to maintain them forward of different streamers.
“With what’s happening in the industry right now, Bob and the team really built the IP portfolio that we have over the last decade, whether it was the Fox acquisition or Lucas or Pixar,” Carlos Gomez, Walt Disney Head of Investor Relations, mentioned throughout Disney’s This fall Earnings Report. “So we actually feel like we’ve got a great portfolio, and we don’t need to do anything.”
That is nice, however that portfolio hasn’t carried out as of late. Marvel Studios, Disney’s crown jewel, had such a down 12 months in 2025 that it appeared virtually purposeful, with all three of their movies (Implausible 4/$500 million, Captain America $200 million, Thunderbolts/$190 million) falling nicely in need of Marvel’s worldwide field workplace requirements, the place their finest movies usually whole previous the billion-dollar mark:
High 5 Marvel movies of all time, by international field workplace:
- “Avengers: Endgame” (2019): $2.79 billion
- “Avengers: Infinity War” (2018): $2.05 billion
- “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (2021): $1.92 billion
- “Black Panther” (2018): $1.34 billlion
- “Deadpool & Wolverine” (2024): $1.33 billion
Supply: Field Workplace Mojo
Hollywood dealmakers and tremendous followers will await Zootopia and Avatar’s opening weekend numbers (and their worldwide returns) to see if Disney can wrest again management earlier than 2025 closes out. If not, it is on to 2026 with Marvel within the highlight.
NBCUniversal sports activities bundle is their superpower
We got here into November with statements from each NBCUniversal and Disney bosses about their respective strengths. Now, their actuality is perhaps altering.
Disney CEO Bob Iger doubled down on Disney’s deal with IP-driven hits, particularly on the field workplace:
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“If you look at the slate for the rest of [2026], it’s about as strong as it’s been in a while, maybe stronger,” Iger mentioned throughout Disney’s This fall earnings on Nov. thirteenth. “[We have] ‘The Mandalorian,’ ‘Toy Story 5,’ a live-action ‘Moana,’ and we are going to finish the calendar year with ‘Avengers: Doomsday.’ We are very bullish on the slate ahead.”
His counterpart at Comcast, CEO Dave Roberts, could have compelled Iger’s hand. Roberts believes NBC’s latest mega-deal acquisition of NBA rights from Warner Bros.’ TNT has gained NBC and their streamer Peacock great floor on the sports activities entrance. Viewers must modify to new Peacock unique NBA nationwide TV video games:
2025-26 NBA Season Watch Information Graphic
NBA
“We’re constructing momentum throughout NBC and Peacock as we head into one of the vital thrilling stretches of stay sports activities in our historical past,” CEO Dave Roberts said on Comcast’s Q3 Earnings Call per the Hollywood Reporter.
“In February, we’ll have the Super Bowl, Winter Olympics and NBA All-Star Weekend, followed by the World Cup on Telemundo in June,” Comcast President Mike Cavanaugh detailed during the Q3 Earnings Report.
So, NBC put the pressure on Disney by rolling out the (return of) the NBA on NBC and flexing their formidable winter into summer sports slate. Disney shot back by emphasizing their possibly untouchable film slate. Now, NBCU has come surging back with Wicked landing a house on its critics (“Wicked: For Good” Is Very, Very Bad, wrote Justin Chang for the New Yorker – great title) with a resounding opening box office, putting the ball in Disney’s court.
“Zootopia 2” and “Avatar: Hearth and Ash”‘s returns will provide the next blows in the bout. The unpredictability of the streaming conflicts, however, is more obvious than ever. It used to seem like NBC/Peacock might win sports and lose films to Disney, but this weekend proved both players have a few more tricks up their sleeves.
For my money, Disney’s slew of valuable IP should still push it past all comers in 2026. That said, if the right rival got a hold of Warner Bros. Discovery, Disney might have a true box office rival on their hands…
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