September proved to be a risky month for XRP (XRP) and the broader crypto market. Nonetheless, the altcoin rose 3.66%, a notable reversal from August’s 8.15% decline.
As October begins, seasonality skews bearish. Over the previous 12 years, XRP has closed within the crimson throughout seven Octobers. Even so, a number of potential catalysts might problem that sample in 2025.
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Seasonality vs Catalysts: XRP Units up for a Pivotal October
In line with information from CryptoRank, XRP’s common October return stands at -4.58%, making it one of many weakest months for the altcoin in addition to February and June.
This 12 months, the sample held in February, when XRP fell 29.3%. Nevertheless, the coin defied seasonality in June, rising 2.95% and breaking a seven-year crimson streak.
XRP Month-to-month Returns. Supply: CryptoRank
With ‘Uptober’ approaching, analysts see an opportunity that XRP might as soon as once more buck the development and ship positive factors. Central to this potential shift are impending selections by the US Securities and Change Fee (SEC) on a number of spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) purposes.
The SEC is scheduled to rule on ETF filings from a number of asset managers between October 18 and 25. These embody Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton.
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These deadlines comply with a wave of purposes, with many issuers vying for approval. If permitted, it might unlock important institutional inflows, probably propelling XRP’s value increased. Moreover, the latest success of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF has fueled optimism for the potential of spot ETFs.
Past ETFs, developments within the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem are accelerating adoption. In late September, Securitize built-in with XRPL to reinforce utility and entry.
Moreover, Ripple and Securitize launched a sensible contract that lets holders of BlackRock’s BUIDL and VanEck’s VBILL immediately swap their shares for Ripple USD (RLUSD) 24/7 on-chain—making a stablecoin off-ramp and deeper liquidity.
“Making RLUSD available as an exchange option for tokenized funds is a natural next step as we continue to bridge traditional finance and crypto. RLUSD is for institutional use, offering regulatory clarity, stability, and real utility. As adoption grows, partnerships with trusted platforms like Securitize are key to unlocking new liquidity and enterprise-grade use cases,” Ripple’s SVP of Stablecoins, Jack McDonald, famous.
Within the decentralized finance (DeFi) house, Flare Community’s fXRP, a DeFi-compatible one-to-one illustration of the XRP, launched on the mainnet. Notably, its week-1 minting cap of 5 million FXRP was utterly utilized earlier than the timeline, a transparent sign of early demand and utility.
Equally, Midas’ mXRP liquid staking token, issued on XRPL’s EVM sidechain through Axelar, amassed $26 million in complete worth locked (TVL) inside six days, highlighting untapped DeFi potential.
Thus, regardless of October’s traditionally weak XRP traits, 2025 brings credible upside catalysts: clustered SEC spot-ETF deadlines, rising XRPL adoption, and early DeFi traction.
If the SEC greenlights spot XRP ETFs, October might mark a pivotal transition from regulatory uncertainty to mainstream integration, probably reshaping XRP’s trajectory. Nevertheless, draw back volatility might probably return if denials or delays arrive or macro tightens.
