MP Supplies inventory jumped 8% on Nov. 19. This motion prolonged every week of features as geopolitical maneuvering round uncommon earth minerals intensifies, whereas traders brace for Nvidia’s earnings within the background.
The market continues to debate whether or not AI represents a bubble or marks the beginning of a decade-long growth. Amid the chaos, rare-earth suppliers like MP Supplies are staging their very own rally, fueled by nationwide safety pursuits and mounting issues about China’s grip on the worldwide provide chain.
The inventory, which is up 312% yr to this point, has been boosted by the corporate’s new three-party three way partnership with the usDepartment of Struggle (DoW) and Saudi Arabian mining large Maaden.
The settlement coincides with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s arrival in Washington after a seven-year hiatus and can broaden on the commerce offers President Donald Trump negotiated throughout his go to to Saudi Arabia in Might 2025, when he participated within the Riyadh Summit.
Underneath the deal, the companions will assemble a serious rare-earth refinery in Saudi Arabia, broadening Western entry to supplies important for EV motors, missile methods, and extra.
The deal indicators how uncommon earths are being strategically prioritized on the highest diplomatic ranges.
MP Materials’s inventory has risen 300% yr to this point.
Photograph Credit score: Michael Tessler/MP Supplies
Uncommon earths: the spine of AI and the clear vitality growth
Whereas AI giants proceed to dominate headlines and investor consideration, a quieter rally is unfolding within the background.
Uncommon-earth suppliers comparable to MP Supplies, together with a rising pack of underneath $10 rare-earth shares together with NioCorp, Nova Minerals, Ioneer, and Lynas Uncommon Earths, are powering greater because the world races to safe minerals that make the AI period potential.
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Uncommon earth minerals are the spine of contemporary know-how. This group of 17 components is used to supply high-strength everlasting magnets that energy EV motors, wind generators, autonomous drones, superior fighter jets, precision robotics, data-center cooling methods, and next-generation chipmaking gear like etching instruments.
China presently controls 60-70% of the worldwide uncommon earth mining market and roughly 90% of the mining capability.
Though these rare-earth minerals usually are not precisely uncommon in nature, their mining is restricted as a result of excessive monetary and environmental prices related to them.
What’s the U.S.-China uncommon earth controversy?
Final month, China prolonged its export controls on sure important uncommon earth minerals, that are important for protection and semiconductor manufacturing.
Nevertheless, following a gathering between President Trump and Chinese language chief Xi Jinping on the APEC summit in South Korea, the 2 leaders reached a negotiation.
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President Trump agreed to cut back tariffs on China, and Jinping eliminated the specter of export controls, giving the U.S. extra time to safe different provide routes.
Nevertheless, a Wall Avenue Journal report claims that whereas uncommon earths would circulate simply into the U.S., China has plans to implement a “validated end-user system” which can give it the authority to limit supplies for firms which have ties to the U.S. navy.
MP Supplies emerges because the West’s strategic wager
This new deal isn’t the primary U.S. authorities partnership for the Nevada-based uncommon earths producer. In July 2025, the Division of Protection acquired a 15% stake within the firm to make sure safe entry to important minerals.
Now with one other strategic deal, the U.S. is increasing its refining capability.
Analysts are additionally taking discover.
Goldman Sachs initiated protection of MP Supplies with a purchase ranking and a $77 worth goal, citing that the U.S. authorities will “unlock significant value” with this uncommon earth producer, in accordance with TheFly.
JP Morgan additionally upgraded it to chubby from impartial, whereas reducing its worth goal to $74 from $75 following its Q3 earnings report on November 6. Analysts additionally famous that MP’s distinctive mine-to-magnet vertical integration place makes it the surface China chief, and its function in nationwide safety is underappreciated at present share ranges, as famous by TheFly.
Final week, Deutsche Financial institution additionally upgraded MP to purchase from maintain, with a worth enhance to $71 from $68, citing that it’s the solely participant within the West to ascertain a totally built-in uncommon earth firm that the U.S. authorities additionally backs.
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