Bitcoin (BTC) merchants anticipate a neighborhood backside forming in mid-November, because the 50-day easy shifting common (SMA) is about to cross under the 200-day SMA close to $100,000, a sample that has usually marked native bottoms.
As well as, some analysts are overlaying lunar phases on value charts, noting that First Quarter moons usually precede rallies extending into Full or Third Quarter moons. These contrasting methods, traditional technical evaluation and the usage of lunar section timing, are capturing consideration as Bitcoin exams important helps.
Dying Cross and Key Help Ranges Point out November Backside
The anticipated intersection of Bitcoin’s 50-day and 200-day SMAs, usually known as a loss of life cross, might happen in mid-November close to $100,000. Traditionally, this occasion alerts native bottoms and doesn’t often mark long-term downturns.
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In response to Binance’s evaluation, the typical value change one month after a loss of life cross is simply -3.2%, difficult the concept it reliably triggers lasting bear markets.
Analyst Colin suggests the bottom cheap stage for Bitcoin on this bull market cycle is round $98,000, a area with a number of assist alignments. This matches with the 50-week SMA, which has offered assist since Q1 2023.
It seems to be like a $BTC backside could possibly be reached mid-November.
That is primarily based on when the 50 day SMA (blue line) and 200 day SMA (white line) are roughly projected to intersect, which has marked most previous native bottoms.
Moreover, the bottom I can see BTC moderately going (and… pic.twitter.com/9WWvEFIxLH
— Colin Talks Crypto 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) October 30, 2025
Binance knowledge from October 2025 signifies that the 50-week SMA is roughly $101,700, a key stage in the course of the ongoing bull market.
Since Q1 2023, Bitcoin has not closed a weekly candle beneath the 50-week SMA, some extent highlighted by analyst Ted Pillows in his October publish. This stage, now round $102,800, serves as the brink Bitcoin should maintain to keep up the bull run.
A weekly shut under this assist stage might point out a possible downturn in market construction.
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Rising Wedge Formation May Result in 15-35% Dip
Regardless of optimistic long-term alerts, Bitcoin’s weekly chart now shows a rising wedge, a bearish sample characterised by converging trendlines that point out waning momentum.
Bitcoin (BTC) Value Efficiency. Supply: TradingView
In earlier cycles, this setup has resulted in declines starting from 15% to 35%, as noticed in each 2018 and 2021. The sample suggests weaker shopping for strain at more and more increased costs inside a narrowing vary.
Nonetheless, the general bull market construction holds. Bitcoin continues to file increased lows and better highs inside an ascending channel since 2022.
Traditionally, bounces from the channel’s decrease vary have rebounded 60% to 170%. Some analysts preserve a value goal of $170,000 or increased, crediting this sturdy uptrend and the absence of overbought cycle alerts historically seen at macro tops.
The present sideways buying and selling between $105,000 and $110,000 is considered as a consolidation, moderately than a market breakdown.
Colin’s evaluation suggests the market is testing holders’ persistence, particularly for altcoin traders, because the cycle stretches past a regular This autumn peak. He notes Bitcoin bucked precedent within the final bear market when its low of $15,000 fell under the previous cycle’s high of $20,000, a primary for the digital asset.
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Lunar Cycle Observations Add to Bullish Case
Some merchants additionally match Bitcoin’s value patterns with lunar phases. Analyst LP_NXT shared an evaluation illustrating that when Bitcoin is mapped alongside moon cycles, a transparent rhythm emerges for 2025.
First Quarter moons, together with the current October 29 occasion, have usually corresponded with the start of upward strikes extending into the Full or Third Quarter moon intervals.
$BTC — Lunar Cycle Concept 🌕
In the event you overlay Bitcoin’s value motion with the moon phases, there’s a transparent rhythm that’s repeated all 12 months.
Every First Quarter Moon usually marks the beginning of a brand new cycle — traditionally adopted by a rally that extends into the Full Moon or Third… pic.twitter.com/KTAD99Jzh7
— LP (@LP_NXT) October 30, 2025
The First Quarter moon on October 29, 2025, might thus align with a bullish pattern based on this idea. This timing aligns with the technical view that mid-November might mark the native backside.
Supporters attribute these cycles to recurring market psychology moderately than superstitious reasoning. Though lunar section evaluation lacks the rigor of established technical instruments, its recurrence amongst merchants highlights the varied vary of methods employed in crypto markets.
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The alignment of lunar timing, established assist ranges, and shifting common crossovers makes November 2025 a focus for merchants.
Bullish Construction Holds as Market Consolidates
Present market circumstances steadiness short-term bearish technicals with long-term bullish momentum. Colin’s evaluation highlights the significance of persistence, suggesting that market shakeouts could happen for these looking for a conventional This autumn peak.
He recommends holding Bitcoin till a brand new all-time excessive is reached, then probably rotating into altcoins utilizing Bitcoin-denominated beneficial properties just a few weeks later.
The so-called loss of life cross, whereas typically seen as adverse, acts extra as a lagging affirmation in Bitcoin’s historical past.
In the meantime, Ledger’s academic supplies level out that it usually alerts capitulation (exhausted promoting and reversal) moderately than forecasting main strikes upfront.
As October 2025 concludes, Bitcoin’s skill to stay above the 50-week SMA will decide the bull market’s path.
The mid-November window, advised by each shifting common evaluation and lunar timing, offers merchants with a timeframe for potential accumulation. Whether or not conventional or unconventional strategies show correct, November 2025 is shaping as much as be a decisive interval for Bitcoin value motion.
