Gold is on the verge of an unprecedented eighth consecutive month-to-month acquire, a streak that might mark the longest in its historical past. Nevertheless, a number of headwinds are threatening to interrupt the rally.
Whereas traders have flocked to the safe-haven steel amid macroeconomic uncertainty, market strategists warn that the run-up could also be reaching a crucial juncture.
Gold’s Historic Rally Faces Unprecedented Dangers
Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, Mark Zandi, warns that monetary markets really feel more and more fraught, with the weather for a significant selloff coming into place.
This menace, he says, is highest for shares and company bonds, however even crypto, gold, and silver stay in danger regardless of latest pullbacks.
“Valuations are high…investors are simply investing on the faith that prices will rise quickly in the future because they have in the recent past,” Zandi acknowledged.
The economist factors to combined financial fundamentals as a supply of rigidity. US actual GDP is rising simply over 2%, under the economic system’s potential of roughly 2.5%. In the meantime, employment has flatlined, and unemployment continues creeping greater.
Inflation, measured by the Fed’s most well-liked shopper expenditure deflator, stays stubbornly and uncomfortably excessive at 3%.
BREAKING: December PCE inflation, the Fed’s most well-liked inflation measure, RISES to 2.9%, above expectations of two.8%.
Core PCE inflation RISES to three.0%, above expectations of two.9%.
Core PCE inflation is now at its highest since November 2023.
PCE inflation is again on the rise.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 20, 2026
In the meantime, renewed tariff chaos and the looming menace of battle with Iran present little upside for threat property.
The Treasury market provides one other layer of uncertainty. Zandi warns that leveraged hedge funds have stepped right into a fragile market left by a retreating Federal Reserve and world traders.
“It’s not hard to imagine them running for the proverbial door all at once, and interest rates spike,” he mentioned.
Huge finances deficits and questions in regards to the safe-haven standing of Treasuries in a de-globalizing world exacerbate the danger.
Regardless of these headwinds, gold continues to draw traders as a sturdy retailer of worth. Information from Kalshi exhibits the steel on monitor for its eighth straight inexperienced month.
JUST IN: Gold on monitor for eighth consecutive inexperienced month — longest streak in historical past
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) February 22, 2026
In the meantime, Financial institution of America strategist Michael Hartnett advises buying and selling oil for short-term geopolitical positive aspects however “owning gold” for longer-term security.
Central banks now maintain extra gold than US Treasuries in reserves for the primary time since 1996, reflecting their position as a hedge in opposition to fiat forex threat.
China’s Gold Scarcity Sparks Provide Crunch Amid Historic Rally
China’s post-Chinese language New Yr gold scarcity can be including bullish momentum, although it comes with its personal dangers.
Reviews point out that many gold retailers halted bar gross sales and refunded pre-holiday contracts resulting from extreme provide constraints.
Simply after Chinese language New Yr, many gold retailers stopped promoting gold bars. All contracts signed earlier than the vacation are been refunding. The gold scarcity is extraordinarily extreme. $10,000/oz will likely be coming. pic.twitter.com/5o9ztz7dQe
— Bai, Xiaojun (@oriental_ghost) February 22, 2026
Analysts recommend this might push gold towards $10,000 per ounce in excessive situations, although abrupt market reactions could set off short-term corrections.
“Extremely severe gold shortage to Send Gold to $10,000/oz soon!” Silver Commerce famous.
Technical analysts stay cautious as properly. Rashad Hajiyev notes resistance close to $5,160. In the meantime, FXGold Analyst highlights the crucial $5,100 hole, suggesting that opening under this stage might favor sellers and restrict shopping for momentum.
Gold (XAU) Value Efficiency. Supply: TradingView
In sum, whereas gold’s historic streak stays intact for now, traders face a fragile balancing act between hovering demand, geopolitical uncertainty, fragile markets, and key technical ranges.
The mix of those elements implies that the steel’s subsequent strikes could also be as risky as they’re historic.
