Louis Navellier has witnessed greater than his share of fine and unhealthy economies over his lengthy Wall Road profession. Navellier, a veteran cash supervisor who has been navigating the inventory market for the reason that Eighties, is the founding father of Navellier & Associates, a agency with about $1 billion in belongings beneath administration.
His lengthy profession, which started with the extremely profitable analysis service MPT Evaluation, means he has managed cash by means of the financial savings and mortgage disaster of the Eighties and early Nineties, the web growth and bust, the Nice Recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, and 2022’s bear market.
Over the course of his a few years, he has gained beneficial insights into the economic system and its influence on inventory costs—a information that led him to be bullish in 2025, regardless of causes for concern on account of President Donald Trump’s tariff coverage.
Additionally learn: CPI inflation report sparks knowledge backlash
This spring, tariff proposals sparked widespread fear over stagflation, a interval of sluggish progress and rising costs, or worse, recession. It additionally pushed the Fed to the sidelines, trapped by its twin mandate to set charges at ranges that promote employment with out fanning inflation.
These issues appeared well-founded when the U.S. economic system contracted 0.6% within the first quarter. And so they strengthened as inflation rose, climbing by means of the summer time into September, whilst unemployment elevated, inflicting many households to battle.
But, Navellier remained unfazed, accurately betting shares would look past tariff-driven inflation towards revenue progress related to AI funding, value cuts, and a rebound in GDP.
Navellier’s financial outlook for 2026 suggests he stays unconcerned by any potential drags on the economic system. This week, he provided a blunt prediction of what buyers can anticipate subsequent 12 months, saying in an e mail to TheStreet, “I believe U.S. GDP growth will exceed 5% in 2026.”
A dealer on the New York Inventory Alternate Flooring. The U.S. economic system may develop by 5% in 2026, in keeping with Wall Road veteran Louis Navellier.
REUTERS
Longtime fund supervisor affords bullish forecast for US economic system
Navellier is not shy about sharing his opinion on the economic system and markets, writing in July that Fed Chairman Powell was “delusional” for refusing to chop charges within the face of labor market dangers.
He was confirmed right, given the Fed lastly acquiesced, lowering its Fed Funds Fee, or FFR, by 1 / 4 share level at every of the previous three conferences (September, October, and December) to shore up the roles market.
Now, these cuts, and doubtlessly, extra cuts in 2026, are placing the U.S. economic system ready to speed up quickly subsequent 12 months.
Navellier believes three issues will drive U.S. GDP to mid-single-digit progress in 2026:
- Continued onshoring.
- A shrinking commerce deficit.
- The truth that the Fed is predicted to chop key rates of interest additional.
President Trump’s commerce insurance policies embody securing commitments from corporations to extend investments in U.S. provide chains, together with manufacturing. The One Large Stunning Invoice Act (OBBBA), which was signed into legislation in July, contains beneficiant incentives for capital spending, similar to accelerated depreciation.
Bonus depreciation permits companies to deduct 100% of the complete value of belongings, similar to equipment, gear, and software program, somewhat than spreading the deductions over time, thereby boosting tax financial savings and company income. It additionally contains particular properties used for manufacturing.
These strikes ought to encourage extra home than abroad manufacturing coming on-line subsequent 12 months.
“As we bring these trillions of dollars of investment into the U.S., they’re all starting to break ground now,” stated Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a Fox interview in November. “We got the tax bill passed on July 4, which gives huge incentives to come to the U.S., build your factory, expense it immediately, and create new jobs.”
Navellier additionally factors to the probability {that a} shrinking commerce deficit will assist GDP progress.
Imports are a drag on GDP, which is why we had a destructive GDP within the first quarter of 2025 as corporations rushed to import items forward of tariffs going into impact. As extra manufacturing is introduced in to keep away from tariffs, it ought to present a GDP tailwind in 2026.
In September, the commerce deficit improved to -$52.8 billion, its lowest month-to-month stage since early 2020, in keeping with Buying and selling Economics.
Lastly, Navellier expects the Fed to proceed to decrease rates of interest in 2026. In December, Fed Chair Powell struck a cautious tone concerning extra cuts subsequent 12 months. Nevertheless, it is broadly anticipated that Powell will likely be changed when his time period ends on Might 26 with a brand new Fed Chairman who’s extra dovish, keen to decrease charges to assist progress.
Whereas the Fed would not set financial institution lending charges, modifications to the FFR, which is the speed at which banks lend cash in a single day to one another, do affect them. It additionally influences Treasury yields that banks use to set charges. As charges fall, so do borrowing charges, liberating up extra money in family budgets for discretionary purchases and boosting company income, that are vital to driving inventory costs larger.
AI spending flurry underpins US financial progress in 2026
U.S. GDP grew 3.8% within the second quarter, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow pegs third-quarter progress at 3.5%. The New York Federal Reserve’s NowCast estimates that GDP within the fourth quarter is monitoring at a nonetheless wholesome 1.7%, regardless of the influence of the federal government shutdown.
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One massive cause behind the energy has been surging AI spending. In line with J.P. Morgan, AI spending accounted for about 1.1% of GDP within the first half of 2025.
AI spending is not anticipated to sluggish in 2026. In a analysis word shared with TheStreet, Goldman Sachs predicted that hyperscalers, the biggest cloud knowledge suppliers, together with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, will spend $533 billion in 2026, up 34% from 2025.
Financial institution of America agrees. Its analysts despatched me their analysis word for 2026, exhibiting that they anticipate spending particularly on AI knowledge facilities to rise to $415 billion from $243 billion in 2025.
I have been professionally monitoring markets since 1997, and the large spending is in contrast to something I’ve seen for the reason that daybreak of the Web.
“There is anxiety about an AI bubble, but I am doing my best to assure investors that the unscrupulous short sellers were merely trying to ruin the party,” stated Navellier earlier this month.
Inflation worries overblown in 2026
A big financial concern is that inflation pushed by tariffs will put a lid on financial progress subsequent 12 months, inflicting lackluster GDP progress.
That argument appears considerably exaggerated given the November CPI inflation knowledge. In line with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation was 2.7% year-over-year in November, down from 3% in September. Granted, a number of knowledge was lacking from the November calculation, notably lease and shelter. Nevertheless, most economists agree that the shelter parts in CPI have been lagging and will have been overstating inflation till now.
“Had rent and OER simply grown in line with the recent trend, a reasonable assumption in our view, headline and core CPI would have printed at 2.8% y/y. That’s still below consensus but likely a little closer to the truth,” wrote Financial institution of America economists this week.
Financial institution of America core PCE inflation forecast for 2026:
- Q1 2026: 3.1%
- Q2 2026: 3.1%
- Q3 2026: 3.1%
- This fall 2026: 2.8%
Supply: Financial institution of America “U.S. Economic and Equity Strategy Outlook, Dec. 2025”
The lower-than-expected inflation fee (Wall Road had been betting on 3.1% inflation) makes the Fed extra prone to speed up fee cuts if unemployment stays close to or exceeds its present 4.6% stage.
Earlier this month, Financial institution of America said that the probabilities of a fee minimize in January would enhance if unemployment have been 4.6% or larger in November. This week, the economists up to date their considering, saying a December unemployment fee of “4.6% would be a close call and 4.7% or higher will likely precipitate another cut” in January.
The December knowledge will likely be reported on Friday, January 9, in keeping with the BLS.
General, Navellier believes the backdrop is excellent information for financial progress in 2026, supporting his 5% GDP prediction.
“Most of the economic growth is currently tied to onshoring and data center growth, but it will spread as lower interest rates stimulate interest rate-sensitive parts of the U.S. economy, like the automotive and housing sectors,” concluded Navellier.
Associated: CPI inflation report sparks knowledge backlash
