Prediction markets on Polymarket now worth the percentages of a shutdown by January 31 at roughly 78%, a dramatic improve from simply 10% three days earlier.
Amid rising dangers of one other US authorities shutdown, buyers are flocking to safe-haven belongings amid mounting uncertainty. The Crypto Concern and Greed Index now reveals ‘Extreme Fear’. Sentiment had recovered to impartial lower than every week in the past.
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US Policymaker Impasse Pushes Shutdown Odds on Polymarket Larger
There may be mounting partisan impasse over funding for the Division of Homeland Safety (DHS). The surge in chance has coincided with sharp beneficial properties in gold and silver, mirroring patterns noticed throughout the report 43-day shutdown that led to November 2025.
The Home of Representatives handed a stopgap funding invoice by a vote of 341 to 81. But, Senate Democrats, led by Majority Chief Chuck Schumer, have refused to advance the invoice. Notably, DHS funding, significantly for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), stays hooked up.
“Democrats sought common-sense reforms in the Department of Homeland Security spending bill, but because of Republicans’ refusal to stand up to President Trump, the DHS bill is woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE. I will vote no,” Schumer stated in a publish.
The impasse has created a “data blackout.” Delayed financial indicators akin to CPI and jobs stories complicate the Federal Reserve’s coverage and threat fashions. This might push market volatility increased.
“The government will shut down in 6 days. The last time they shut down, gold and silver jumped to new all-time highs. But if you’re holding other assets like stocks, you need to be extremely careful… Because we’re heading into a total data blackout,” wrote NoLimit, a macro analyst and well-liked account on X.
Certainly, Polymarket bettors see an analogous end result, wagering a 76% chance that there will probably be one other US authorities shutdown by January 31.
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Comparable bets embrace a 77% probability of a US Authorities funding lapse on January 31. On the off probability that it does occur, analysts anticipate 4 key threats:
- Delayed financial information
- Potential credit score downgrades
- Liquidity freezes, and
- A GDP contraction of roughly 0.2% per week if the deadlock persists.
“Most people are ignoring this, but the shutdown risk is getting real. The deadline is closing, and funding talks are stuck. When the government slows, everything else slows with it. Paychecks get delayed, contracts stop moving, decisions get pushed. Markets always brush it off at first, and then suddenly they don’t,” added DeFi researcher Justin Wu.
Treasured metals have been the clearest beneficiaries. Gold recorded a brand new all-time excessive above $5,000 per ounce, buying and selling for $5,041 as of this writing. In the meantime, the silver worth broke the $100 barrier for the primary time, buying and selling at $103.07 per ounce as of this writing.
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Past safe-haven demand, structural provide constraints, industrial demand for silver in electronics and photo voltaic sectors, and broader geopolitical considerations additionally gas the rally.
Silver didn’t go parabolic as a result of it’s a valuable metallic.
It went parabolic as a result of it’s an AI enter.
Information facilities, energy grids, chips, robotics, EVs, drones all want silver.
When shortage meets exponential demand, worth doesn’t matter.
New video on how silver revealed the… pic.twitter.com/bo6zWs6joB
— Jordi Visser (@jvisserlabs) January 25, 2026
Historic precedent reinforces this development as a result of throughout the prior shutdown in late 2025, gold climbed from roughly $3,858 to over $4,100 per ounce. Silver, alternatively, examined $54, reflecting a mixture of risk-off shopping for and uncertainty premiums.
Crypto markets, against this, have proven volatility amid the uncertainty. Bitcoin, which fell by roughly 20% throughout the 43-day 2025 shutdown, stays delicate to liquidity shocks and delayed financial information, prompting warning amongst buyers.
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A protracted shutdown may exacerbate stress throughout repo markets and cash funds, with a number of bettors predicting the possible authorities shutdown lasting as much as two months.
Whereas the chance is excessive, a shutdown isn’t inevitable. Congress may stop it by passing the remaining appropriations payments or extending funding by way of one other persevering with decision.
“…we had the longest shutdown in history just a couple of months ago…clearly there is not an appetite to do this again,” stated Rachel bade, co-host at The Huddle.
Current bipartisan offers have lowered the percentages, however with the Senate deadlocked and fewer than every week earlier than the January 30 deadline, market individuals are pricing in a major chance of disruption.
Towards this backdrop, Polymarket merchants proceed to put bets, and gold and silver costs are climbing. That is primarily based on the notion that in intervals of political gridlock and monetary uncertainty, safe-haven belongings traditionally present a buffer.
Nonetheless, it is usually value noting that markets can swing violently in both path relying on the decision of the standoff. Subsequently, buyers ought to conduct their very own analysis.
