Seize a espresso as markets brace for one more pivotal second. From Washington’s shutdown to deep-pocketed crypto whales pushing leverage, forces are converging that might propel Bitcoin (BTC) into uncharted territory. Analysts discover themselves break up on whether or not this power is strong or fragile.
Crypto Information of the Day: Geoff Kendrick Sees Bitcoin Prepared for $135,000 as Shutdown Looms
Bitcoin could also be on the point of a recent all-time excessive, in keeping with Customary Chartered’s Head of Digital Property Analysis, Geoff Kendrick.
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The catalyst, he argues, lies within the dynamics of the US authorities shutdown.
“The shutdown matters this time around. During the previous Trump shutdown (December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019), Bitcoin was in a different place than it is now, so it did little. However, this year, Bitcoin traded with US government risks, as best shown by its relationship to US treasury term premium,” Kendrick defined.
On Polymarket, merchants are pricing a 60% likelihood that the shutdown lasts between 10 and 29 days, suggesting no fast decision.
US Authorities Shutdown Timeline Possibilities. Supply: Polymarket
For Kendrick, this creates an prolonged surroundings by which Bitcoin can outperform as a hedge towards fiscal gridlock and US credit score stress.
The opposite key driver lies in ETF flows. Gold has been outperforming Bitcoin ETFs in current weeks, however Kendrick expects that pattern to reverse.
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“Net Bitcoin ETF inflows are now at USD58bn, of which USD23bn has been in 2025. I would expect at least another $20 billion by year-end, a number which would make my $200,000 year-end forecast possible,” he stated.
With Uptober underway and liquidity dynamics delivering Bitcoin’s favor, Kendrick believes the market is about to reward holders with a brand new peak within the coming days.
Perp Whales Drive Aggressive Longs, Elevating Each Hopes and Dangers
Whereas macro tailwinds dominate headlines, on-chain and derivatives information point out rising momentum for Bitcoin’s subsequent breakout. Analysts at CryptoQuant and different corporations spotlight a surge in perpetual futures exercise led by perp whales.
“Bitcoin perp whales went long heavily on OKX, Bybit, HTX. The taker buy ratio on OKX is the highest since January 2023,” wrote Ki Younger Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant.
In accordance with Ki, the present setup marks the fourth try to interrupt Bitcoin’s ATH, solely this time, perp whales are on the frontline.
4th try to interrupt Bitcoin ATH, however this time with perp whales.
— Ki Younger Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 3, 2025
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Supporting this, analyst Maartunn noticed that for the reason that month-to-month open, taker purchase quantity has exceeded promote quantity by roughly $1.8 billion.
“Futures buyers are stepping up…clear sign of aggressive long positioning,” Maartunn acknowledged.
This exercise has fueled hypothesis {that a} leveraged rally could also be within the works. In a current evaluation, Maartunn defined that rallies powered primarily by borrowed capital slightly than long-term spot accumulation are inherently fragile.
“It might look impressive for a little while, but it’s incredibly unstable and just waiting for a reason to fall over,” he warned.
The danger is that heavy lengthy positioning may set off cascading liquidations if momentum falters, suppressing spot demand at the same time as costs rise.
This makes present valuations extra speculative than sustainable. Nonetheless, with whale positioning aligned with macro catalysts like the federal government shutdown and ETF flows, the situations seem ripe for Bitcoin to lastly clear its all-time excessive barrier.
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Chart of the Day
Byte-Sized Alpha
Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview
FirmOn the Shut of October 2Pre-Market OverviewTechnique (MSTR)$353.33$352.00 (-0.026%)Coinbase (COIN)$372.07$373.50 (+0.38%)Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)$36.52$36.89 (+1.01%)MARA Holdings (MARA)$18.79$18.98 (+1.01%)Riot Platforms (RIOT)$19.25$19.36 (+0.57%)Core Scientific (CORZ)$18.10$18.13 (+0.17%)Crypto equities market open race: Google Finance
