Picture supply: Getty Pictures
I anticipated good issues from the Barclays (LSE: BARC) share worth, however I by no means anticipated this. The FTSE 100 financial institution is up a mind-boggling 242% over two years. That’s regardless of wider financial uncertainty and falling rates of interest, which ought to squeeze financial institution income by narrowing the margin between what they pay savers and cost debtors.
But that hasn’t shackled Barclays shares. The rally continued all through 2025, with the inventory now up 67% over the past 12 months because the financial institution shines undimmed. How lengthy can this stellar run proceed?
I’d count on Barclays shares to look dearer. At present’s price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 isn’t precisely low cost, nevertheless it’s under the FTSE 100 common P/E, at present round 18.
FTSE 100 sector restoration
The identical applies to its price-to-book ratio, now at 1.08, near truthful worth. Rivals Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest commerce at P/Bs of 1.3 and 1.36 respectively, making them a tad dearer. Once more, nothing alarming right here.
Again in 2023, P/Es for the large FTSE 100 banks had been as little as 5 – 6, and P/B ratios hovered round 0.5. They had been real bargains again then. Not a lot at present.
Barclays’ revenue development has been spectacular, rising 24% from £6.56bn in 2023 to £8.11bn in 2024. Earnings per share jumped 11% from 32.4p to 36p over the identical interval. Investor sentiment does look like working forward of the particular numbers.
Barclays has abroad development alternatives, notably within the US and the Center East, including each pleasure and threat in comparison with Lloyds, which is solely a UK play at present. The Barclays share worth dipped on 12 January after Donald Trump proposed a one-year 10% cap on bank card rates of interest, which is the sort of threat Lloyds doesn’t face.
Finally, Lloyds may bang its head towards a home development ceiling, whereas Barclays is free to focus on new territories. That doesn’t imply one is healthier than the opposite, nevertheless it’s one thing buyers want to think about.
Development and buybacks
The trailing Barclays yield is disappointingly low at 1.75%. That’s down to 2 issues. First, the hovering share worth. Second, the board now focuses on rewarding shareholders by means of share buybacks. Which must also assist the share worth.
Personally, I favor dividends, which is why I maintain Lloyds, however I don’t flip my nostril up at a pleasant buyback. Barclays is within the technique of returning £10bn to shareholders by the tip of 2026.
So, can Barclays proceed its rampage? The worldwide economic system isn’t precisely thriving, tariffs are a fear, and a inventory market crash can by no means be dominated out. Brokers stay cautious. Seventeen analysts present one-year share worth forecasts they usually produce a median goal of 504.1p. If appropriate, that’s up a modest 5.5% from at present’s 477.5p. Which confirms my suspicions that the thrill is drawing to a detailed. 13 out of 20 brokers nonetheless fee Barclays a Robust Purchase, although, with simply two recommending Promote.
I nonetheless suppose Barclays is value contemplating at present, however solely with a long-term perspective. Share worth development is more likely to be much less rampant, however the whole potential return stays tempting.
