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Since January 2025, two of the FTSE 100’s star performers have been Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) and Endeavour Mining (LSE:EDV), with their share costs rising exponentially.
Hovering gold and silver costs are behind this unimaginable run. However might it final all through 2026 or is the bubble about to burst? Let’s take a more in-depth look.
All that glitters
The very first thing to notice is that each corporations have totally different exposures to those two metals. Endeavour Mining produces solely gold from its 5 mines in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. In the course of the 9 months ended 30 September 2025, it mined 911koz (thousand ounces).
Fresnillo claims to be “the world’s leading silver producer” and one in all Mexico’s largest gold miners. Over the identical interval, it produced roughly half as a lot gold and 35,429koz of silver from its eight services.
However over the previous 12 months or so, this distinction hasn’t been that essential. Because the begin of 2025, each gold and silver costs have rocketed – by 75% and 210%, respectively — rising earnings for these miners with out them having to do something totally different. Certainly, Fresnillo produced 11.7% much less silver within the first six months of 2025 than it did a 12 months earlier, but its EBITDA (earnings earlier than curiosity, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) greater than doubled.
To additional illustrate the affect of those beneficial market circumstances, Fresnillo says larger metals costs accounted for 69% of the $630m of additional gross revenue within the first half of 2025, in comparison with the identical interval in 2024.
It additionally means every thing underneath the bottom is price much more than beforehand.
Can it final?
However going ahead issues is perhaps totally different.
Traditionally, though silver and gold costs have a tendency to maneuver in tandem, the previous is commonly extra unstable. And the value forecasts for the 2 recommend there’s extra optimism surrounding gold. Wanting on the predictions from analysts employed by the most important banks, none are forecasting a major worth drop from its present degree. Most market specialists expect a worth of round $5,000/oz (at 22 January, it was roughly $4,830) by the tip of 2026. And I can see why the gold worth is predicted to go larger. It retains its standing as a ‘safe haven’, which suggests present geopolitical uncertainty is pushing its worth larger.
In contrast, predictions for silver costs don’t look like as optimistic. In truth, some analysts are forecasting a drop.
After all, no one actually is aware of for certain, which makes the mining sector extra dangerous than many others. So as to add to the uncertainty, each Africa and South America have reputations for political instability, in addition to unstable currencies.
However so long as an investor is conscious of the potential dangers ought to metals costs fall or manufacturing be disrupted because of one of many many operational challenges, I believe each are price contemplating. Nevertheless, I’m leaning extra in direction of Endeavour Mining.
In idea, Fresnillo provides some diversification via its publicity to 2 valuable metals however I believe the gold worth is prone to stay larger for longer. Demand from the world’s central banks is a key driver with the greenback showing to fall out of favour.
Endeavour Mining additionally claims to have the third-lowest prices within the sector, which suggests it ought to do higher relative to most of its closest rivals.
