Up 165% in a yr! Is it time buyers woke as much as this eye-popping progress share?

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Generally a FTSE 100 progress share pushes all the best buttons, with out ever fairly capturing the eye of buyers. I’d say that’s the case with telecoms operator Airtel Africa (LSE: AAF). Its shares have had an exceptional run not too long ago, up 163% within the final yr and 327% over 5.

But, it nonetheless doesn’t really feel like a go-to progress title amongst buyers. I can’t preach. I haven’t paid it a lot consideration myself. Is it too late to hop on board?

Airtel Africa shares are flying

The rollercoaster retains racing, with the Airtel Africa share value up 18% within the final week alone, the quickest grower on the blue-chip index. It has an enormous market to goal at, as smartphone penetration remains to be solely across the 45% mark. With luck, it ought to develop together with connectivity.

Q1 2025 outcomes, printed on 25 July, confirmed quartely group income leaping 22.4% to $1.4bn. Information income surged 38.1% whereas cellular cash climbed 30.3%, reflecting rising smartphone adoption and elevated monetary inclusion.

Revenue after tax jumped from $31m to $156m, boosted by foreign money positive factors within the Central African franc. Airtel Africa has additionally been rewarding shareholders with share buybacks, returning $16.9m.

A buyer base of 75.6m knowledge customers and 46m cellular cash clients reveals the dimensions of the chance. Its funding in 4G/5G networks, fibre and digital platforms might make it greater than a telecoms operator, probably turning it right into a broader service supplier.

Dangerous FTSE 100 inventory

But the share value has been risky at instances, and foreign money danger stays a priority. The Nigerian naira has had a poor decade, shrinking revenues when transformed into sterling. Recently although, it’s displaying indicators of restoration. Debt is one other difficulty, it’s nearly doubled to $6.19bn in simply over a yr, because the group invests closely in networks and digital providers. That’s an issue with telecom shares, simply take a look at BT Group and Vodafone.

I see Airtel Africa as one to strategy with excessive warning at this time, regardless of the chance. The value-to-earnings ratio is nudging 60, which is much more costly than the last word FTSE 100 blockbuster inventory, Rolls-Royce. Any slip in earnings or swing in currencies might spook the market

Too late to leap in?

Consensus analyst forecasts put the one-year share value goal just below 225p, round 18% beneath at this time’s ranges. Most of these forecasts received’t replicate current speedy progress. However in addition they spotlight a hazard when the inventory races forward of expectations.

Of the 12 analysts masking Airtel Africa, eight title it a Sturdy Purchase, one says Purchase and three Maintain. None advocate promoting. That’s a fairly stable endorsement.

I feel it’s price contemplating for buyers prepared to tackle the chance. But as I mentioned, they need to be cautious. There’s an actual likelihood of a pullback when a share runs this sizzling. Possibly take into account drip-feeding cash in? Count on volatility, be affected person, steadiness this progress alternative with much less risky holdings. Airtel Africa has had a superb run, however new buyers are arriving late to the share value get together.