Tremendous Bowl industrial curse sends warning on six shares

There are a lot of methods to measure winners and losers within the Tremendous Bowl.

The plain from Tremendous Bowl LX is that the Seahawks gained and the Patriots misplaced. The much less apparent: yellow Gatorade (splashed on the profitable coach when orange was the pre-game favourite), heads (within the pre-game coin toss), and numerous different propositions, together with the multi-million greenback Tremendous Bowl industrial curse.

Whether or not you preferred Dunkin’s celebrity-packed advert or Budweiser’s Clydesdale-and-eagle pride-sweller or every other advert, the conversations about them immediately make these firms champs.

Traders who imagine the Tremendous Bowl Indicator – which posits {that a} victory by the NFC staff is a precursor to a superb calendar yr for the market – additionally cheered the Seahawks’ win, though the indicator, as I wrote beforehand, is generally disproven, imperfect, and topic to knowledge mining to maintain it related.

Into that blend, nevertheless, I’ve recognized a Tremendous Bowl jinx that applies to firms that purchase Tremendous Bowl promoting inside 7 years of their preliminary public providing.

Shares within the six firms becoming that definition this yr might wind up being huge Tremendous Bowl losers.

Anheuser-Busch

Tremendous Bowl industrial jinx is dangerous information for shares

Wanting again at knowledge because the late Nineteen Nineties – when Tremendous Bowl advertisements first topped the $1 million mark for a 30-second advert – some clear traits change into evident:

• The inventory value of practically all firms that purchase nationwide advertisements throughout the Tremendous Bowl sport broadcast inside seven years of their IPO falls considerably inside two years of their first commercial.

There are some logical explanation why this may be the case, together with overspending on an advert that’s extra about self-importance than return on funding, going public when the corporate and/or its business is scorching earlier than cooling off, IPOs usually backtrack after an preliminary pop, and extra.

•  This Tremendous Bowl jinx doesn’t should be a loss of life knell.

There are a lot of examples through the years of shares that got here again from even the steepest declines.

Carvana (CVNA), for instance, held its IPO in 2017 and purchased its first Tremendous Bowl advert in 2022. The inventory misplaced 97.5% of its worth earlier than 2022 was up, falling from $141 per share to $3.50; if, nevertheless, you rode by way of that unbelievable free-fall, the inventory has practically tripled in worth from the worth it had at that 2022 kickoff, topping $410 per share. (Additionally it is, now, outdoors the 7-year window from its IPO, which can assist.)

• However it may be.

Pets.com, FTX, Lifeminders and extra are on the checklist of firms that splurged on Tremendous Bowl advertisements on the best way to imploding into oblivion.

• Two associated corollaries: 1) The jinx is extra pronounced when an organization buys advertisements inside 5 years of the IPO, however applies practically as properly to firms six and 7 years previous going public. 2) The jinx tends to construct/proceed if an organization advertises yr after yr till it will get close to the top of the too-close-to-the-IPO window.

This is sensible as a result of the extra mature an organization turns into, the extra an expensive Tremendous Bowl advert would possibly make good enterprise sense.

Six shares susceptible to Tremendous Bowl industrial curse in 2026

In Tremendous Bowl LX, simply six firms met the jinx standards, however none have been first-timers shopping for advertisements after an IPO. In consequence, they may very well be turning the nook on the jinx shifting to the opposite aspect. 

Listed below are the six shares that may very well be 2026 losers of the Tremendous Bowl IPO jinx:

1. Hims & Hers Well being (HIMS) went public in January 2021 and did its first Tremendous Bowl advert a yr in the past.
   The inventory closed forward of that sport at $42.55 per share; by the point this yr’s sport rolled round, it was buying and selling at $23.02, and it’s off sharply in morning motion on the primary day after its advert appeared in Tremendous Bowl LX.
2. Draft Kings (DKNG) held its IPO in April 2020, and purchased its first Tremendous Bowl advert the next yr.
   It closed at $63.87 the Friday earlier than that kickoff; it’s at about $27 now.
3. Rocket Mortgage (RKT) is owned by Rocket Cos., which held its IPO in August 2020. Whereas Rocket marketed earlier than its IPO—a typical theme amongst Tremendous Bowl advertisers that leads many to imagine pre-IPO advertisements try to boost consciousness to assist gas a post-IPO pop—closed at $21.63 earlier than the Tremendous Bowl in 2021. The inventory stood at $12.26 by the 2022 sport, and bottomed out later that yr at $6.28.
   Proving that firms can overcome the jinx, it’s up 3%, ultimately examine, to $18.99 immediately.
4. Uber Applied sciences (UBER), the corporate, which went public in Might 2019, did its first Tremendous Bowl advert for Uber Eats in 2021. It was at roughly $58.40 on sport day, and it was right down to $21.81 lower than 18 months later.
   The inventory – now buying and selling at roughly $74 – is one other signal that rebounds are potential; it is also leaving the seven-year post-IPO interval, when shopping for Tremendous Bowl advertisements ought to make traders itchy.
5. Maplebear (CART), the proprietor of Instacart, went public in September 2023 and purchased its first Tremendous Bowl advert on Feb. 9, 2025.
   The inventory closed at $48.59 earlier than that sport; it’s early within the jinx interval and purchased one other advert that appeared throughout Sunday’s sport; the inventory is right down to roughly $35/share.
6. Flutter Leisure (FLUT), which owns FanDuel, went public on the finish of January 2024, and was promoting within the Tremendous Bowl two weeks later (FanDuel, which was acquired by Flutter in 2020, made its debut within the 2023 sport). It stood at $216.85 earlier than kickoff that yr, was truly as much as $258.04 by yr’s finish, however then the corporate marketed once more in 2025; the inventory peaked close to $300 shortly after that sport, but it surely has cratered in latest months and stood at roughly $150 getting into Sunday’s sport. (Be aware, FanDuel’s huge advert was within the pre-game present this yr, not within the sport broadcast.)

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