Bitcoin could also be approaching a decisive December as liquidity situations tighten and on-chain metrics shift. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee says the market has been “limping” for the reason that October 10 liquidation shock, however argues the setup now helps a serious transfer earlier than year-end.
Latest on-chain traits and exchange-collateral information level to related strain constructing beneath the floor.
Liquidity Harm Nonetheless Defines the Market
Lee informed CNBC that the October occasion severely broken market-maker steadiness sheets.
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He described these companies because the “central banks” of crypto, accountable for depth, spreads, and stock. When their steadiness sheets shrink, liquidity contracts for weeks.
This matches market efficiency since early October. Bitcoin has dropped virtually 30% from its $126,000 peak.
In the meantime, November has delivered one of many worst month-to-month performances for each value and ETF flows in years.
Market makers withdrew threat capital after the liquidation wave erased roughly $19 billion of leveraged positions.
Order-book depth fell sharply throughout main exchanges, creating air pockets that amplified draw back strikes. Below such situations, Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to react earlier to macro stress than equities.
Regardless of this harm, Lee expects a powerful December rally, citing a possible dovish shift from the Federal Reserve.
“Bitcoin makes its best moves in 10 days every year, I think some of those days are still gonna happen before year end,” stated Tom Lee.
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On-Chain Metrics Present Sellers Shedding Management
Bitcoin’s 90-day Spot Taker CVD has shifted from persistent promote dominance to a impartial stance. The indicator tracks aggressive market orders on spot exchanges.
Bitcoin Spot Taker CVD(Cumulative Quantity Delta, 90-day). Supply: CryptoQuant
Crimson bars dominated from early September by way of mid-November, displaying sustained taker-sell strain.
The current transfer to impartial marks a break in that sample. It suggests the aggressive promoting section has exhausted.
Nevertheless, it doesn’t present sturdy purchaser dominance. As an alternative, the market has entered a balanced section typical of late-cycle bear markets.
Worth stays properly under October ranges, however the absence of persistent taker-sell strain indicators improved stability.
The shift aligns with the broader leverage reset seen in futures markets, the place funding charges have moved close to zero.
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Borrowing Tendencies Level to Robust Arms, however Fragile Leverage
CryptoQuant information reveals Nexo customers choose borrowing towards Bitcoin fairly than promoting it. BTC accounts for 53% to 57% of all collateral on the platform. That vary has held for months regardless of the drawdown.
This habits reduces speedy promoting strain. It additionally confirms that long-term holders proceed to deal with Bitcoin as their major liquidity supply.
But it provides one other layer of vulnerability. If Bitcoin drops additional, collateralized positions face liquidation threat.
Mixed with skinny order books, any compelled promoting might produce outsized volatility. This dynamic displays late-bear fragility fairly than early-bull energy.
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A Market Caught Between Exhaustion and Low Liquidity
Present market construction displays a transition fairly than a clear reversal. ETF outflows, broken liquidity, and macro uncertainty maintain strain on costs.
Nevertheless, on-chain promoting has cooled, and structural holders proceed to defend positions.
The result’s an setting the place small catalysts can produce giant strikes.
🚨TOM LEE: YEAR-END RALLY IS COMING
Regardless of a brutal six weeks, Tom Lee says a STRONG December rally is on deck, backed by by a dovish incoming Fed pivot. pic.twitter.com/G9afNmV0RR
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) November 27, 2025
A dovish Fed pivot would probably hit skinny order books and speed up a rebound. One other macro shock might set off renewed deleveraging.
Lee’s view aligns with this setup. The market has stopped bleeding, however it stays fragile. Bitcoin has a historical past of delivering double-digit strikes in compressed durations, particularly after aggressive liquidations.
As December approaches, each liquidity situations and on-chain information recommend the following giant transfer is close to.
The route will rely on macro indicators and ETF flows fairly than sentiment alone.
