Republicans held onto a reliably conservative U.S. Home district in Tennessee’s particular election, however solely after a late burst of nationwide spending and high-profile campaigning helped them safe a margin lower than half of final 12 months’s race.
Even with that victory, the result contributed to a depressing outlook for the celebration going into the 2026 midterms that may decide management of Congress. Republicans might want to defend far more susceptible seats if they’ve any hope of preserving their Home majority, whereas Democrats are capitalizing on President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and the general public’s persistent frustration with the financial system.
“The danger signs are there, and we shouldn’t have had to spend that kind of money to hold that kind of seat,” mentioned Jason Roe, a nationwide Republican strategist engaged on battleground races subsequent 12 months.
He mentioned that “Democratic enthusiasm is dramatically higher than Republican enthusiasm.”
Republican Matt Van Epps, a navy veteran and former state normal providers commissioner, defeated Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn by 9 proportion factors on Tuesday for the seat vacated by Republican Mark Inexperienced, who retired over the summer season. Inexperienced had received reelection in 2024 by 21 proportion factors.
Particular elections present a restricted window into the temper of voters and happen below far totally different situations than common marketing campaign cycles. However some Republicans are acknowledging the warning indicators, particularly after Democrats had convincing victories in New Jersey, Virginia and elsewhere final month.
Tennessee was the fifth Home particular election this 12 months, and Democratic candidates have outperformed Kamala Harris’ margins within the 2024 presidential race by a median of 16 proportion factors in the identical districts.
Trump dismisses affordability considerations
Though inflation has dropped since Democratic President Joe Biden was in workplace, Behn centered her marketing campaign on the lingering considerations about costs.
Trump has performed down the affordability challenge, saying throughout a Cupboard assembly Tuesday that it was “a con job” by his political opponents.
“There’s this fake narrative that the Democrats talk about, affordability,” he mentioned. “They just say the word. It doesn’t mean anything to anybody, they just say it.”
Roe seen issues otherwise. He mentioned the Tennessee race had “better be a wake-up call that we’ve got to address the affordability problem, and the president denying that affordability is a political issue is not helpful.”
Sustaining Home management is essential for Trump, who fears a repeat of his first time period, when Democrats flipped the Home and launched an impeachment inquiry. The Republican president has been leaning on GOP-led states to redraw congressional maps to enhance the celebration’s possibilities.
Enjoying down the impression of Tuesday’s vote, U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., mentioned, “There’s nothing unique about the party out of power performing better in a special election.”
The Republican Nationwide Committee deployed staffers and partnered with state officers to get voters to the polls. MAGA Inc., the tremendous political motion committee that had gone darkish since supporting Trump in 2024, reemerged to again Van Epps with about $1.7 million.
U.S. Home Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., visited the Nashville-area district on Monday.
“When you’re in a deep red district, sometimes people assume that the Republican, the conservative will win,” he mentioned Tuesday. “And you cannot assume that, because anything can happen.”
Chip Saltsman, a political strategist and former Tennessee Republican Occasion chair, mentioned his celebration had introduced in its heaviest hitters just because there weren’t different competing contests, not as a result of Republicans feared a loss.
“It’s the only election going on. Why wouldn’t the speaker come?” he requested. “There was one race, and you would expect everybody to do everything they could.”
Regardless of considerations about low turnout for the post-Thanksgiving election, about 180,000 individuals voted, much like the quantity within the 2022 midterms.
Democrats see promise regardless of loss
The Home Majority PAC put $1 million behind Behn, who mentioned her marketing campaign had “inspired an entire country.”
U.S. Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, the No. 3 Home Democrat, mentioned Republicans “see the writing on the wall” and “it’s a mess over there.”
“They’re fighting amongst themselves right now,” he mentioned Wednesday.
Though Democrats have been optimistic, the outcome contributed to some murmuring inside the celebration about the perfect path ahead because it grasps for a path again to energy in Washington.
Amongst particular elections this 12 months, the shift in Behn’s route was the second smallest, offering a gap for some factions that consider extra reasonable candidates would fare higher.
“Each time we nominate a far-left candidate in a swing district who declares themselves to be radical and alienates the voters in the middle who deliver majorities, we set back that cause,” mentioned an announcement from Lanae Erickson, a senior vp at Third Manner, a centrist Democrat suppose tank.
Republicans tried to show Behn’s personal phrases in opposition to her in tv advertisements, equivalent to when she described herself as a “radical” or claimed to be “bullying” immigration brokers and state cops. Additionally cited have been feedback Behn made about Nashville years in the past, when she mentioned, “I hate this city,” and complained about bachelorette events.
A number of high-profile progressive leaders, together with U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., had rallied for Behn within the marketing campaign’s closing days.
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Related Press author Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.
