Surprisingly, world markets didn’t react with common pleasure. Indexes had been combined in Europe and down in Asia. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.18% in early buying and selling. The U.Ok.’s FTSE 100 was flat earlier than lunch. China’s CSI 300 declined 0.17%. South Korea’s KOSPI was down 0.55%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 1.75%. The one exception within the East was India’s Nifty 50, up 0.46%.
- United + American? The merger that simply may fly
- Trump says he has a deal to finish the struggle
- Reed Hastings exits Netflix — and Sarandos swats down palace-intrigue idea
- Dimon’s newest private-credit warning: fear, however do not panic
- The roles quantity economists cannot fairly consider
- $8,000
- New ‘Misery Index’ ranks the worst international locations to reside in
- Merchants could have already taken their beneficial properties and are promoting on the information. In spite of everything, “European equities [are] up just over 10% from the March 23rd low,” Financial institution of America’s Sebastian Raedler advised purchasers in a word this morning.
- “Markets have been unwilling to price in [Trump’s] assertion in the absence of confirmation from alternative sources,” UBS’s Paul Donovan warned.
- “There has been a little bit of derisking globally over the last 24 hours, but markets remain broadly optimistic about the direction of travel,” Jim Reid and the oldsters at Deutsche Financial institution stated of their morning e-mail.
ONE BIG THING
United + American? The merger that simply may fly
American Airways already ranks because the world’s largest service by passengers flown, and United stands fourth; at their present sizes, the combo could be twice the scale of each second-place Delta and number-three Ryanair on the worldwide stage. The brand new behemoth could be by far probably the most dominant within the annals of U.S. air journey. Though that may current a seemingly easy antitrust problem, trade insiders who talked to Fortune’s Shawn Tully say the tie-up is on no account unimaginable. The explanation: The Trump Administration’s attraction to grand gestures that remake large swaths of the economic system.
IRAN
Trump says he has a deal to finish the struggle
President Trump stated Iran has agreed at hand over its uranium and cease its nuclear enrichment program, presaging an finish to the struggle if a peace deal will be reached, the BBC says. Iran didn’t remark. The struggle was going “swimmingly” and “should be ending pretty soon,” Trump stated. A brand new spherical of U.S.-Iran talks is anticipated this weekend.
The unanswered query proper now’s how a lot of that is Trump’s wishful pondering and the way a lot is actual. Pakistani diplomats are actively shuttling messages between Washington and Tehran, Al Jazeera stories: “The signs are all there.”
- Bonus peace deal: Lebanon and Israel reached a 10-day ceasefire beginning immediately. This “may have been a historic day for Lebanon. Good things are happening!!!” Trump stated on Fact Social.
- Strait discuss: The U.Ok. and France will host a gathering of 40 international locations to debate methods to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately.
- Iran has demanded stablecoins to permit ships to exit the Gulf, based on Chainalysis.
- The Wealthy Starry—a sanctioned oil tanker Fortune has been monitoring within the Strait that was turned again by the U.S. Navy—is in the identical spot it was yesterday, off the coast of Iran. Comply with its progress right here.
AAAAND … SCENE!
Reed Hastings exits Netflix — and Sarandos swats down palace-intrigue idea
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“I DON’T THINK IT’S SYSTEMIC”
Dimon’s newest private-credit warning: fear, however do not panic
J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon issued one other one in every of his warnings about personal credit score. On his Q1 2026 earnings name he stated, “I think there’s been some weakening in underwriting, and not just by private credit, elsewhere. There will be a credit cycle one day. I think when there’s a credit cycle, losses will be worse than people expect relative to the scenario.” However, “I don’t think it’s systemic,” he stated as a result of the scale of the market is “like $1.7 trillion” and subsequently not large enough to be threatening in the best way the collapse of mortgage lending was in 2008.
PIKs not displaying ache: Over at Goldman Sachs, analyst Amanda Lynam and her workforce say PIK charges — “payment-in-kind” made by debtors in monetary misery — are basically the identical immediately as they’ve been for the previous couple of years. “We find a largely range-bound picture,” she advised purchasers in a current word. “PIK activity has represented, on average, 7.4% of total income since 3Q2021. And as of December 31, 2025, this metric was below the 8%+ levels seen at various points over the past few years.”
CHART OF THE DAY
The roles quantity economists cannot fairly consider
About 207,000 filed for unemployment within the U.S. in the latest week, beneath expectations. The speed stays low. Virtually mysteriously low, based on Jefferies analysts Thomas Simons and Michael Bacolas. “It is somewhat hard to believe given the ongoing war in Iran, the rise in gasoline prices, the low level of hiring for the last 18 months, and the general decline in consumer sentiment, but the data suggest that the payroll data is going to be solid once again this month,” they advised purchasers in a current word. Whereas the worldwide provide chain dangers stay, “for better or worse, the U.S. economy is likely going to be the most insulated in the world.”
NUMBER OF THE DAY
$8,000
The “bull case” goal value for gold per troy ounce on the finish of 2027, as forecast by Wells Fargo’s Ohsung Kwon and his workforce, in a word seen by Fortune. His bear case is $4,000.
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY
OnlyFans tops $3bn valuation in stake sale after demise of proprietor – FT
Spain touts power resilience to Iran struggle as Trump tensions solid shadow over commerce – CNBC
Trump officers negotiating entry to Anthropic’s Mythos regardless of blacklist – Axios
Trump Bets Financial Ache Will Lastly Drive Iran to Reopen Strait – WSJ
How One Soccer Workforce Embraced Moneyball to Problem Huge Cash Rivals – Bloomberg
European Airways Face Gasoline Shortages Inside Weeks – NYT
ONE MORE THING
New ‘Misery Index’ ranks the worst international locations to reside in
Steve Hanke, a professor of utilized economics at Johns Hopkins College, has printed his annual “misery index,” which ranks international locations by “the sum of the year-end unemployment (multiplied by two), inflation, and bank-lending rates, minus the annual percentage change in real GDP per capita,” to create a single-figure rating of the worst economies on Earth. Search for your nation on the listing right here. Listed below are the highest 5 locations you don’t need to be:
- Venezuela
- Sudan
- Turkey
- Iran
- Argentina
The U.Ok. ranked 103rd and was crushed by the U.S. at No.119. The underside (and subsequently greatest) slot goes to … Taiwan.
