Coinbase, the biggest cryptocurrency trade in america, is making ready to launch prediction markets and tokenized equities, whereas Gemini has secured regulatory approval.
Kalshi and Crypto.com have fashioned an trade coalition. Changpeng Zhao is focusing on 220 million customers via BNB Chain. The warfare amongst giants for the throne of the $15 billion prediction market has formally begun.
Coinbase Reveals Key Card in “Everything App” Technique
Coinbase reportedly plans to formally announce prediction markets and tokenized fairness providers at a showcase on December 17. The tokenized shares will probably be launched in-house, not via companions.
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Coinbase executives have beforehand expressed curiosity in coming into these companies however had not made official bulletins. Nonetheless, expectations have been constructing as screenshots hinting at associated performance have circulated on social community X in current weeks. A Coinbase spokesperson declined to touch upon particular plans, stating solely: “Tune in to the livestream on Dec. 17 to find out what new products Coinbase is shipping.”
This transfer is a part of Coinbase’s ongoing “everything app” technique, designed to supply merchants with entry to a broad vary of belongings and markets whereas protecting tempo with rivals who’re diversifying their choices. Robinhood launched Kalshi’s prediction market merchandise earlier this yr, and each Robinhood and Kraken supply tokenized US shares and ETFs outdoors america.
Buying and selling in tokenized equities is rising quickly. In keeping with rwa.xyz, month-to-month switch quantity elevated 32% during the last 30 days to $1.45 billion.
Trade Coalition CPM Launches: “A Unified Voice Is Necessary”
On the identical day, Kalshi and Crypto.com introduced the launch of the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), a nationwide alliance of prediction market operators. Coinbase, Robinhood, and sports activities gaming platform Underdog joined as founding members.
Matt David, govt board member of CPM, emphasised: “The US is the biggest frontier for prediction markets, and the momentum we’re seeing makes a unified industry voice not just important, but necessary.”
The coalition will deal with strengthening the federal framework for prediction markets, establishing nationwide integrity requirements to curb insider buying and selling, and pushing again towards state-level regulatory overreach.
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Sara Slane, head of company improvement at Kalshi and an govt member of the coalition, acknowledged: “We spent years working with the CFTC because prediction markets must operate with strong federal safeguards that prevent insider trading, protect consumers, and ensure these markets remain transparent and corruption-free.” The coalition mentioned extra firms are in talks to affix.
Gemini Secures CFTC Approval, Shares Surge 28%
Winklevoss twins-founded trade, Gemini, has additionally entered the prediction market battlefield. Gemini Area Station Inc. obtained approval from the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC) for a derivatives trade.
The approval permits Gemini to supply occasion contract buying and selling providers to present US clients via its web site and cell app. In regulatory filings associated to its IPO, Gemini had included prediction markets on “economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts” amongst its record of merchandise of curiosity.
The approval is among the many newest company actions underneath Appearing Chairman Caroline Pham, who has positioned herself as a champion of the digital belongings trade and has taken quite a few steps to advance crypto buying and selling on CFTC-regulated platforms. Pham additionally introduced that Tyler Winklevoss would take part within the company’s CEO Innovation Council, which is able to embrace Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy, and Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour.
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CZ Marches to the Middle Stage of Prediction Markets
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) can be increasing his prediction market territory. On December 4, CZ posted on X a couple of new prediction market launching on BNB Chain. A key function of the platform is that person funds generate yield whereas awaiting outcomes. The platform is backed by YZiLabs (previously Binance Labs), which manages over $10 billion in belongings and has invested in additional than 300 initiatives globally.
At some point earlier, Belief Pockets, owned by CZ, launched its Predictions function. Web3 prediction market protocol Myriad joined as the primary integration accomplice, enabling customers to wager on politics, sports activities, and market traits throughout the app. Belief Pockets’s person base stands at 220 million.
BNB Chain accomplished its integration with Polymarket in October, and Opinion Labs, a prediction market supplier backed by YZiLabs, launched its mainnet. Opinion Labs secured a multi-million greenback funding at Binance Blockchain Week. They accomplished a $5 million seed funding spherical in Q1 2025, led by YZiLabs with participation from Animoca Ventures and Amber Group.
Trump Media & Know-how Group, the social media firm of former President Donald Trump, can be leaping into the prediction market enterprise. The corporate plans to launch “Truth Predict” on its Reality Social community, permitting customers to wager on occasions starting from political elections to modifications within the inflation fee.
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Reality Predict will use Crypto.com Derivatives North America to course of bets and can supply wagers on commodity costs and occasions throughout all main sports activities leagues. Preliminary testing will start “in the near future,” adopted by a full US launch and eventual international enlargement.
Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and a former Republican congressman, acknowledged: “For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets. With Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd.”
The Race for the $15 Billion Throne
Prediction markets have exploded since a federal courtroom dismissed the prohibition on election betting final yr. Weekly notional buying and selling quantity on Polymarket and Kalshi has surpassed the height set throughout final yr’s US presidential election, reaching new data.
Investor curiosity is hovering. Kalshi’s valuation has greater than doubled following its current funding spherical, reaching $11 billion. Polymarket is reportedly searching for to boost funds at a valuation of as much as $15 billion.
Conventional monetary exchanges, together with CME Group and Intercontinental Alternate, are additionally exploring methods to enter this market. Month-to-month switch quantity for tokenized equities elevated 32% during the last 30 days to $1.45 billion.
Nonetheless, regulatory uncertainty stays a problem. Kalshi filed a lawsuit in October towards New York’s gaming fee, alleging that the state company is overstepping its authority by making an attempt to manage sports activities betting operations that fall completely underneath federal jurisdiction. Sports activities betting stays unlawful in almost a dozen US states, and lawsuits over the legality of prediction markets are mounting.
Coinbase, Gemini, CZ’s BNB Chain, and the newly fashioned trade coalition — the sport of giants for the $15 billion throne has solely simply begun.
