The Solana value is down about 12% over the previous 30 days. As 2026 approaches, the chart exhibits a mixture of bullish and bearish alerts.
Some indicators counsel a bounce in January, however others point out that strain may persist if momentum fails to materialize.
Historical past Leans Bullish, However ETF Flows And Professional Views Break up
January has been a robust month for Solana. The common return sits close to 59%, with median positive aspects round 22%. The sample sharpens when December ends crimson.
Sponsored
Sponsored
In 2022, SOL fell 29.6% in December, and in January 2023, SOL rallied 140%. In December 2024, SOL dropped 20.5%, and in January 2025, it rose 22.3%. This month is down 6.94% up to now, which statistically leans towards a rebound.
Purple December- Inexperienced January Narrative: CryptoRank
ETF information backs that concept. Since launch, Solana spot ETFs haven’t posted a single week of internet outflows. The latest week added $13.14 million (incomplete week nonetheless), bringing cumulative inflows to $755.77 million.
That regular demand alerts selective confidence in SOL at a time when different majors face withdrawals.
ETF Flows: SoSo Worth
B2BinPay’s analytics staff describes what that circulate sample means for Solana and the broader market, of their dialog with BeInCrypto:
“Traders aren’t rotating wholesale out of Bitcoin and Ethereum into the altcoin market. They prioritize a small group of liquid, well-known tokens the place draw back feels controllable, and positions could be closed shortly if wanted.
That’s why just a few altcoins comparable to Solana or XRP are seeing inflows, whereas a lot of the market is quiet. Present inflows into Solana shouldn’t be learn as the beginning of the altseason. These strikes are slim and particularly selective,” they mentioned.
Sponsored
Sponsored
This helps SOL’s ETF inflows, however it additionally warns to not body the transfer as a broad altseason setup.
Chart Alerts Trace At Reversal, However EMAs And Derivatives Present Resistance
On the two-day chart, the SOL value made a decrease low between November 21 and December 17, whereas the RSI (Relative Energy Index, a momentum gauge exhibiting overbought/oversold power) made the next low. That may be a bullish divergence and may point out early development reversal if consumers comply with by way of.
Bullish Divergence: TradingView
However a bearish situation sits proper beside it.
On the identical timeframe, the 100-period EMA (Exponential Transferring Common, a trend-tracking line that reacts quicker to cost) is on the verge of crossing under the 200-period EMA.
If that bearish crossover confirms, draw back strain may proceed into late December or early January earlier than any restoration can stick. Till that crossover is prevented or reversed, the technical image stays cut up.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Solana Has Bearish Indicators In Play: TradingView
Derivatives positioning exhibits extra warning. On Hyperliquid, nearly each dealer bracket has internet quick positioning throughout the final seven days.
High 100 addresses, sensible cash, and Solana whale accounts are all internet quick. But, some teams (sensible cash, public figures, and perp winners) are slowly opening longs. That might be in anticipation of a bullish January 2026, as highlighted earlier.
SOL Derivatives: Nansen
This combine leaves the setup balanced. Momentum suggests a reversal might be forming. EMAs and derivatives positioning argue for persistence. If Solana needs to construct a January rally, it must flip that by-product sentiment away from shorts whereas avoiding the EMA cross.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Key Solana Value Ranges: $129 Is The Pivot, $116 Is The Fail-Secure
SOL trades close to $124. A two-day shut above $129 would verify power and open a path towards $150. Clearing $150 may then goal $171 if ETF inflows maintain and RSI momentum continues to construct.
Value-basis warmth map information explains why $129 issues. One of many strongest provide clusters sits between $123 and $124, and SOL is presently preventing by way of it.
An in depth above $129 clears that cluster and removes speedy overhead resistance. Above that, provide thins till $165 to $167, enhancing the percentages of continuation if quantity arrives.
A value-basis warmth map tracks the place giant teams of holders acquired their tokens, which highlights zones the place provide or demand could cluster.
Solana Heatmap: Glassnode
On the draw back, $116 stays the fail-safe. Dropping that stage breaks the historic “red December, green January” development and units up continuation of the downtrend. A confirmed bearish EMA crossover, accompanied by a break under $116, would reset expectations for the month.
Solana Value Evaluation: TradingView
For now, the commerce is outlined by two thresholds. Above $129, bullish momentum permits room to maneuver towards $150 and $171. Under $116, consumers lose management, and January’s regular power could not present up.
