The Robinhood inventory value has rebounded almost 23% since its February 5 low close to $71. On the floor, this seems to be like a powerful restoration for HOOD. The corporate additionally simply posted its finest monetary 12 months on document.
However the greater image tells a unique story. Weak crypto exercise, fading cash flows, and rising technical dangers recommend this rebound could not final. For now, draw back stress stays the dominant drive.
Earnings Energy and Crypto Drag Are Pulling in Reverse Instructions
Robinhood delivered a powerful monetary efficiency in 2025. Full-year income reached about $4.5 billion, up greater than 50% 12 months over 12 months. Web earnings hit almost $1.9 billion. This autumn income rose 27%, and earnings per share beat expectations. Choices buying and selling, curiosity earnings, and Gold subscriptions all grew sharply.
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These numbers present that the core enterprise is bettering. Robinhood is not dependent solely on meme shares and crypto buying and selling. It’s turning into extra diversified and extra steady.
The corporate additionally launched the general public testnet for Robinhood Chain. That is an Ethereum Layer 2 community constructed on Arbitrum. It goals to assist tokenized shares, 24/7 buying and selling, and DeFi instruments. This can be a long-term progress transfer, not a short-term value driver. However crypto stays an issue.
Crypto income fell 38% 12 months over 12 months to about $221 million. This drop was linked to Bitcoin’s pullback and weaker buying and selling volumes. As a result of crypto nonetheless contributes a big share of exercise, the slowdown harm complete income. This autumn gross sales missed analyst estimates by roughly $50 million.
ROBINHOOD This autumn’25 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Income: $1.28B (Est. $1.35B) 🔴; +27% YoY
🔹 EPS: $0.66 (Est. $0.63) 🟢; vs. $1.01 YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $761M (Est. $833.2M) 🔴; +24% YoY
🔹 Crypto Income: $221M (Est. $242M) 🔴; -38% YoY
🔹 Transaction-Primarily based Income: $776M (Est. $791.6M)… pic.twitter.com/9dSJBlQXoK
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) February 10, 2026
Markets targeted on that miss.
After earnings, the inventory fell round 7% in prolonged buying and selling. This confirmed that buyers nonetheless see crypto as a serious danger. Even robust earnings and new merchandise couldn’t offset that weak spot. Put up that underwhelming crypto-specific efficiency, the Robinhood inventory value appears to have rekindled the fears related to a bearish sample break.
HOOD value broke under the falling channel on February 2, triggering a close to 30% breakdown. Whereas $71 provided assist, the crypto-led weak spot might quickly try and push the costs down.
HOOD Worth Sample: TradingView
That’s the reason the rebound since February 5 seems to be fragile. It’s taking place inside a broader downtrend, not a brand new uptrend.
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Weak Cash Movement and Loss of life Cross Danger Sign Fading Confidence
Worth motion alone doesn’t clarify every thing. Cash circulation indicators present that large buyers stay cautious.
One key software is Chaikin Cash Movement, or CMF. CMF combines value and quantity to point out whether or not giant gamers are shopping for or promoting. When it stays above zero, establishments are normally accumulating. When it stays under, they’re exiting or staying away.
Proper now, Robinhood’s CMF stays unfavourable.
Even through the 23% rebound, CMF did not reclaim the zero line. It additionally stayed under its falling trendline. Because of this the rally lacked robust big-wallet backing.
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That makes rebounds unstable. Transferring averages add one other warning.
An Exponential Transferring Common, or EMA, provides extra weight to latest costs. Merchants use them to guage development power. When short-term averages fall under long-term ones, momentum weakens.
Robinhood is now going through a “death cross” danger. This occurs when the 50-day EMA drops under the 200-day EMA. It usually indicators longer-term weak spot.
Two bearish crossovers already fashioned on January 30 and February 4. After the January sign, the inventory fell almost 30%. Now, the 50-day is once more shifting towards the 200-day. If this crossover confirms, draw back stress might intensify.
There is just one delicate constructive.
On-Steadiness Quantity, or OBV, compares quantity on up days and down days. It reveals whether or not patrons or sellers dominate. Between September and February, OBV fashioned greater lows, whereas HOOD made decrease lows. This recommended that some retail buyers have been nonetheless accumulating.
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If crypto weak spot continues, even this assist could fade. With out robust demand from large wallets, retail shopping for alone is never sufficient to reverse a development.
New Falling Channel Factors to Key Robinhood Inventory Worth Ranges
The chart construction stays bearish.
Robinhood has been buying and selling inside a falling channel since October. A falling channel types when value makes decrease highs and decrease lows inside parallel trendlines. It indicators managed however persistent promoting.
Now, a brand new parallel channel is forming based mostly on latest value motion. This up to date construction factors to a possible draw back of greater than 40% if the decrease trendline breaks. The primary key HOOD value degree is $71, the final assist zone.
So long as the worth stays above it, the rebound has an opportunity to outlive regardless of the crypto drag. A clear break under $71 would deliver decrease ranges into the image. If that occurs, the following main zone sits close to $55.
On the upside, resistance stays heavy. The HOOD inventory value must reclaim $87 after which $98 to enhance short-term construction. Above that, $107 and $119 act as main boundaries.
