Polymarket recorded a single-day notional buying and selling quantity of $478 million, with the politics class alone accounting for $220 million, almost half of whole day by day exercise.
Elsewhere, rival prediction market Kalshi was on the receiving finish of consumer backlash after a controversial contract over the Khamenei market.
Polymarket Units Historic File as Geopolitical Tensions Drive Crypto Betting
Prediction markets surged to historic highs as the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran.
Polymarket Notional Quantity Smashes $478 Million. Supply: Defioasis
Polymarket reached an all-time excessive throughout the platform and its political markets. In accordance with knowledge aggregated by Defioasis, Polymarket’s spike coincided immediately with the strikes.
在美以对伊朗实施联合打击当天，Polymarket 单日交易量创下历史新高，名义交易量达到 4.78 亿美元
其中政治板块达 2.2 亿美元，同样创下历史新高，占比当日 Polymarket 名义交易量的 46.2%
此外，Polymarket Builders 在这历史节点上同样创下了单日交易量新高 pic.twitter.com/KnKmWO3vAn
— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) March 1, 2026
It alerts the platform’s capability to cost geopolitical occasions sooner than TradFi markets or polling fashions.
Sure strike-timing contracts set their very own information, with particular person trades clearing as much as $90 million, reflecting the huge liquidity flowing into the platform.
Nonetheless, the traction was additionally marred by allegations of insider buying and selling, with Bubblemaps figuring out not less than six addresses that profited roughly $1.2 million from bets tied to the Iran battle.
JUST IN: 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Six suspected insiders made $1.2M betting on a US strike on Iran
Most of those wallets:
• have been funded within the final 24h
• particularly guess for February 28
• purchased “yes” hours earlier than the strike pic.twitter.com/n3G6OIEOXt
— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) February 28, 2026
The surge in exercise exhibits how prediction markets are more and more blurring the road between monetary hypothesis and geopolitical forecasting, drawing consideration from merchants, lawmakers, and regulators.
The well timed pricing of real-world occasions demonstrates the effectivity of blockchain-based markets. Nonetheless, it additionally raises considerations about transparency and equity, notably when wallets seem to completely anticipate outcomes.
Kalshi Faces Backlash Over Khamenei Market, CEO Defends Settlement and Ethics
In the meantime, Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market, confronted its personal controversy with the contract titled “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?”
The market, which had gathered over $50 million in whole quantity, noticed roughly $20 million traded on strike day alone.
You settled Jimmy Carter to “No” on attending Trump’s inauguration after he died. You knew folks have been betting the 99 12 months previous would die earlier than the occasion. You choose demise, simply not when it makes you cash. This has nothing to do with demise, this has the whole lot to do along with your… pic.twitter.com/HD5Mr7kwph
— jellyman (@jellymanguy) March 1, 2026
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour addressed the backlash on X (Twitter), emphasizing that every one positions can be settled at pre-death last-traded costs. In the meantime, post-death positions can be absolutely reimbursed, together with all buying and selling charges.
Mansour defended the market’s design as per U.S. laws. He famous that management adjustments in Iran carry important geopolitical, financial, and nationwide safety implications. This, he mentioned, makes such markets related with out immediately incentivizing demise.
“A market on Ali Khamenei’s out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have a major impact on the world order,” Mansour wrote, outlining that merchants might nonetheless revenue or lose primarily based on official political outcomes moderately than mortality.
The settlement course of, he defined, adhered strictly to the CFTC-filed contract phrases, which referenced the last-traded value previous to Khamenei’s demise, even amid ambiguities in reporting timelines.
Reposting as a result of my different message was unclear:
We settled the market to final traded value earlier than time of demise (per our guidelines). All positions, regardless of after they have been opened, received paid out on the last-traded value earlier than his demise.
On high of that, if you happen to purchased a place…
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 1, 2026
On the one hand, Polymarket is setting new benchmarks for buying and selling quantity amid geopolitical rigidity. In the meantime, Kalshi is dealing with moral scrutiny.
Each occasions spotlight the potential and the dangers of prediction markets. These platforms provide unprecedented velocity and transparency in pricing world occasions.
Nonetheless, as February 28 demonstrated, in addition they amplify moral dilemmas and regulatory consideration throughout crypto-driven hypothesis.
