For many years, the usual formulation for monetary success was the identical: go to varsity, get a level, and land a prestigious white-collar job—in all probability a lawyer, marketing consultant, or funding banker.
However entrepreneur and writer Daniel Priestley is sounding the alarm on a significant job-market shift. He suggests the normal hierarchy of labor (white-collar over blue-collar) is definitely flipping.
Priestley, founder and CEO of Dent World, an entrepreneur accelerator, mentioned he’s noticed that the character of the economic system is altering so quickly that he envisions a future during which “plumbers regularly earn more than lawyers,” as blue-collar roles are elevated whereas skilled providers face unprecedented disruption from AI.
“For the last 25 years I’ve been building companies from scratch and I’ve been through the Global Financial Crisis,” Priestley mentioned throughout a latest look on the Diary of a CEO podcast. “But I have never experienced what we’re experiencing right now.”
“I’ve never seen more fear for the disruption that is coming,” he continued.
He argues we’re witnessing a “swinging pendulum” during which the excessive worth as soon as positioned on “white-collar work behind a screen” is shifting towards “blue-collar work with your hands.” Different CEOs like Ford’s Jim Farley have sounded an identical alarm, arguing there’s way more demand for blue-collar work than there are individuals who need to do it.
He’s involved about staffing AI information facilities and factories, which he calls a disaster affecting the “essential economy” of blue-collar employees who make up $12 trillion in U.S. GDP, in line with the Aspen Institute. Farley has additionally mentioned AI might wipe out half of white-collar jobs, as an alternative ushering in mass demand for expert trades and blue-collar work.
“There’s more than one way to the American Dream, but our whole education system is focused on four-year [college] education,” Farley mentioned throughout the Aspen Concepts Pageant final summer season. “Hiring an entry worker at a tech company has fallen 50% since 2019. Is that really where we want all of our kids to go? Artificial intelligence is going to replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the U.S.”
Gen Z is already testing the plumber over the lawyer thesis
Over the previous couple of years, not less than a few of Gen Z have began drifting away from the traditional desk job path and extra towards expert trades. Enrollment in vocational-focused neighborhood faculties climbed 16% in 2023 to its highest stage for the reason that Nationwide Pupil Clearinghouse began monitoring in 2018. This features a surge in college students learning building trades, HVAC, and car repairs.
“There’s still a stereotype that getting a university degree guarantees and results in a well-paid job, but I soon realized that isn’t the case,” Emily Shaw, a Gen Z apprentice at British building firm Redrow, advised Fortune’s Orianna Rosa Royle. Some have even began their very own blue-collar companies, bringing in six-figure incomes. One other Gen Z electrician interviewed by Fortune’s Nick Lichtenberg skipped school as a result of he mentioned he wasn’t pupil, and now makes six figures working a commerce as an alternative.
A Jobber evaluation of Labor Division information additionally initiatives demand for electricians, plumbers, and HVAC technicians will develop effectively above the 4% common for all occupations by way of 2033.
To make sure, a few of Gen Z’s blue-collar pivot is pushed by the identical AI nervousness Priestley described—and a realization school might probably not be value it anymore. Almost 80% of Individuals have observed an elevated curiosity in commerce careers from younger adults, in line with a Harris Ballot survey of greater than 2,000 U.S. adults for Intuit Credit score Karma.
How briskly is change coming?
Priestley—and numerous different executives—have warned that change is coming quick. And he mentioned the shift is being accelerated by the “instantaneous” AI rollout. In contrast to the Industrial Revolution, which unfolded over a long time and required huge infrastructure buildout, change will come a lot quicker within the AI period.
“The minute an AI learns how to be a lawyer in one place, it can be a lawyer in every place,” he mentioned, as a result of the digital community already exists. A Brookings Institute research revealed in February 2025 additionally suggests greater than 30% of U.S. employees might see not less than 50% of their duties disrupted by generative AI. A 2023 commentary revealed by Brookings additionally mentioned AI will “revolutionize” the apply of legislation by dramatically rising effectivity in drafting, analysis, discovery, and doc manufacturing, though it doesn’t argue the tech will utterly remove the necessity for legal professionals.
In the meantime, blue-collar employees, corresponding to electricians and bricklayers, are experiencing a “blue ocean” of alternative as a result of a extreme labor scarcity. Priestley mentioned the imbalance is because of “market distortion” from government-backed pupil loans.
“Lots of young people who should have been plumbers, electricians, and concreers, and brick layers went off and got a master’s degree in mating habits of butterflies or some random degree that doesn’t have a job attached and they end up in [$60,000; $70,000; $80,000] worth of debt to get this degree that no one was asking for,” he mentioned. “That market distortion means that we now don’t have many plumbers and electricians.”
