Nvidia inventory will get main actuality examine on '$100B' quantity

There is no denying it: Nvidia (NVDA) is priced for perfection.

No matter your private opinion, the usual mega-cap argument is now not legitimate, with the tech large now firmly within the perpetual AI capex machine area. This implies any points with OpenAI will result in a pointy hit within the sentiment.

CEO Jensen Huang swooped in, although, saving the day with some sharp statements in Taipei.

“No, no, nothing like that,” he mentioned, when requested if the funding could be greater than $100 billion.

What does that imply for merchants? It means, very merely, Nvidia is saying it should assist pay for one of many world’s high customers of AI computing, even whether it is already guiding to $65 billion quarters.

Nvidia’s OpenAI feedback simply became a jaw-dropping inventory catalyst.

Photograph by Justin Sullivan on Getty Pictures

The Nvidia inventory angle buyers ought to anchor to

NVDA is now buying and selling at a value that requires clear affirmation that “AI demand stays hot.”

• The market valuation of NVDA was round $4.64T on the finish of the day on Jan. 31.
• Trailing P/E is at 53.81, and ahead P/E is about 29.94 (Yahoo Finance key metrics).

At that a number of, the market needs development and ecosystem financing to cease “pulling forward” development; that’s the present concern about Large Tech expenditures.

The three numbers that designate why Huang is doing PR on a weekend

$57.0B: income base (and it’s nonetheless accelerating)

Nvidia’s fiscal Q3 2026 (ended Oct. 26, 2025) was a blockbuster quarter.

• Income:$57.006 billion (up 22% QoQ, 62% YoY)
• Internet earnings:$31.910 billion (up 21% QoQ, 65% YoY)
• GAAP gross margin:73.4%
• EPS (diluted):$1.30

The income just isn’t imaginary. The truth is, it is already right here.

$65.0B: the information on which NVDA trades

• Nvidia guided fiscal This autumn income to $65.0 billion ±2%.
• It additionally guided GAAP gross margin to 74.8% ±50 bps.

The OpenAI story is critical as a result of the inventory is a working referendum on whether or not Nvidia can maintain posting statistics like this with out halting demand.

$60.6B: the liquidity that lets Nvidia write “huge” checks

Nvidia’s 10-Q signifies the next.

• Money & money equivalents:$11.486 billion (Oct. 26, 2025)
• Marketable securities:$49.122 billion
• Complete money + money equivalents + marketable securities:$60.608 billion
• Shares excellent (as of Nov. 14, 2025): 24.3 billion

Huang can declare “the largest investment we’ve ever made,” and the market pays consideration due to his monetary sheet.

The place OpenAI suits: It’s not a “friendship,” however a requirement moat

In the identical outcomes announcement, Nvidia spoke a few strategic relationship with OpenAI.

The objective is to make use of at the very least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia programs for OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure.

That’s not small.

Extra Nvidia:

• Nvidia’s China chip downside isn’t what most buyers assume
• Jim Cramer points blunt 5-word verdict on Nvidia inventory
• That is how Nvidia retains prospects from switching
• Financial institution of America makes a shock name on Nvidia-backed inventory

Nvidia’s assertion was simple: “Blackwell sales are skyrocketing, and cloud GPUs are completely sold out.”

In a single line, Nvidia needs the most important AI labs funded and scaling as a result of these labs flip into repeat consumers of Blackwell-era compute.

“Okay, but is this just circular financing?”

Now that’s the place the bear narrative hangs within the stability.

And it’s why Huang’s “not $100 billion” line issues.

Here is the backdrop.

• Nvidia’s plan to take a position as much as $100 billion in OpenAI has encountered obstacles because of inside considerations throughout the firm, The Wall Avenue Journal reported.
• Huang says it is “nonsense” that he is not glad with OpenAI and that Nvidia will nonetheless be a part of the spherical, however not for something near $100 billion.
• On the similar time, OpenAI is attempting to boost as much as $100 billion at a price of roughly $830 billion, in line with Reuters. Amazon can also be in negotiations which may result in a deal for as much as $50 billion.

The market cares as a result of the AI stack is so giant that funding rounds appear like main occasions.

NVDA’s hidden “tell” is that buybacks didn’t cease

If Nvidia feels the monetary strain, right here is the place you will note it first.

From its 10-Q:

• Nvidia repurchased 70M shares for $12.6 billion in Q3 FY26.
• Nvidia repurchased 262M shares for $36.7 billion within the first 9 months of FY26.
• It was approved to repurchase as much as $62.2 billion extra, as of Oct. 26, 2025.

So here is the true inventory angle. If Nvidia can proceed to purchase again shares on a big scale whereas concurrently supporting the ecosystem, it strengthens the “AI cash engine” story on which the a number of is predicated.

What would really transfer NVDA inventory from right here

NVDA inventory requires tangible catalysts relatively than simply constructive sentiment. This consists of three primary drivers.

• The scale and construction of the OpenAI examine, together with whether or not it’s tied to GPU purchases and whether or not it’s an fairness stake or a compute/lease dedication
• Whether or not main hyperscalers akin to Microsoft (MSFT) proceed to spend at a tempo that’s acceptable to the markets
• Whether or not, in Nvidia’s subsequent steering vary, $65 billion appears to be like like the ground or the ceiling

In the long run, NVDA is promoting at a value that displays confidence within the product.

Huang’s comment was meant to safeguard perceptions that AI demand continues to be sturdy and that Nvidia continues to be the tollbooth.

Associated: Microsoft exams Home windows 11 change that would reshape your desktop