SanDisk has been one of the vital extraordinary inventory tales of 2026. Up practically 295% 12 months so far, the reminiscence chip firm has ridden a NAND pricing supercycle into territory that may have appeared unimaginable a 12 months in the past.
Now Morgan Stanley has reset its forecast on SanDisk in a approach that claims the agency believes the story has additional to run, even from right here. The brand new value goal isn’t a modest nudge. It’s a assertion.
Morgan Stanley raises SanDisk value goal
Analyst Joseph Moore raised his value goal on SanDisk to $1,100 from $690 on April 27, sustaining an chubby ranking. SanDisk was buying and selling at $989.90 on the April 24 shut, making the brand new goal an 11% premium to the current market value.
Moore’s valuation makes use of 23x through-cycle earnings per share, which he raised to $48 from $30 as his ahead estimates moved dramatically greater.
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With SanDisk’s 2027 EPS now modeled at $149.68, Moore stated he’s “comfortable moving the through-cycle earnings up to $48.”
The revision to estimates is simply as putting. Morgan Stanley now fashions SanDisk incomes $127.92 per share in calendar 2026. That’s 65% above Wall Road consensus of $77.55. For 2027, Morgan Stanley’s $149.68 estimate sits 42% above the Road’s $105.03.
NAND pricing is the engine behind SanDisk’s bull case
The core thesis for SanDisk’s bull case is NAND pricing momentum. Third-party forecasts mission total NAND common promoting costs to rise roughly 90% in Q1 2026 and 70-75% in Q2 2026. SanDisk is exhibiting relative outperformance in consumer SSDs versus friends, Moore famous.
That surge is being pushed by a structural mismatch between AI-related demand and constrained provide. Hyperscalers are pulling huge volumes of NAND flash into enterprise SSDs for coaching, inference, and vector storage. Trade analysts mission 2026 NAND bit demand progress of 20-22% towards bit provide progress of simply 15-17%, in response to 24/7 Wall St. The scarcity is widening, at the same time as capital spending picks up.
Moore captured the important thing query buyers face immediately. “NAND near-term strength is discounted,” he wrote. “The debate at this point is durability, and we expect pricing to remain strong as long as we remain at maximum AI investment.” New capability isn’t anticipated on-line till after 2027, which retains provide elasticity restricted within the close to time period, in response to TradingKey.
SanDisk’s current outcomes set a really excessive bar
The Morgan Stanley goal increase comes forward of SanDisk’s fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on April 30. SanDisk’s fiscal Q2 outcomes have been distinctive. The corporate reported non-GAAP EPS of $6.20, effectively above the $3.54 consensus. Income of $3.03 billion topped the $2.67 billion Wall Road estimate, in response to SanDisk’s Q2 press launch.
SanDisk’s knowledge heart section was the standout. Knowledge heart income rose 64% sequentially and 76% 12 months over 12 months to $440 million. That section now represents roughly 15% of complete income, up from simply 1% a 12 months in the past, the Q2 press launch confirmed.
SanDisk guided Q3 income to $4.40 billion to $4.80 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $12.00 to $14.00. Morgan Stanley sits above that information. The agency fashions Q3 income of $4.742 billion and EPS of $14.72, each above Road consensus.
Key figures from Morgan Stanley’s SanDisk forecast reset:
- New value goal: $1,100, raised from $690, chubby ranking maintained, analyst Joseph Moore
- SanDisk inventory value at April 24 shut: $989.90
- SanDisk YTD efficiency as of late April: Up roughly 295%, in response to 24/7 Wall St
- Morgan Stanley CY2026 EPS estimate: $127.92, versus consensus of $77.55, 65% above Road
- Morgan Stanley CY2027 EPS estimate: $149.68, versus consensus of $105.03, 42% above Road
- Morgan Stanley CY2026 income estimate: $32.877 billion, versus consensus of $23.374 billion, 42% above Road
- NAND ASP forecast: Up 90% in Q1 2026, 70-75% in Q2 2026, in response to TrendForce knowledge cited by Morgan Stanley
- SanDisk Q2 2026 EPS: $6.20, versus consensus of $3.54, in response to SanDisk’s Q2 press launch
- SanDisk Q2 datacenter income: $440 million, up 64% sequentially and 76% 12 months over 12 months, SanDisk’s Q2 press launch confirmed
- SanDisk Q3 steerage: income $4.40 billion to $4.80 billion, EPS $12.00 to $14.00, Q2 press launch confirmed
- Morgan Stanley bull case: $1,500, based mostly on 25x through-cycle EPS of $60
The true debate isn’t whether or not SanDisk will beat earnings however one thing a lot more durable to reply about what comes subsequent.
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How lengthy will SanDisk‘s favorable pricing setting final?
Close to-term power in SanDisk’s numbers is effectively understood by the market. The more durable query is how lengthy the favorable pricing setting lasts. That reply relies upon largely on how dedicated hyperscalers stay to AI infrastructure spending.
Moore sees long-term agreements as a key proof level. SanDisk and different reminiscence corporations have mentioned multi-year hyperscaler offers involving money prepayments. Moore expects these prepayments to point out up on SanDisk’s stability sheet over the course of 2026 as negotiations are finalized. Prospects usually favor their reminiscence suppliers to not talk about offers earlier than completion, making LTA updates a delicate subject on any earnings name.
SanDisk can be locking in provide chain relationships. The corporate prolonged its three way partnership with Kioxia on the Yokkaichi plant in Japan by way of 2034, committing roughly $1.165 billion paid in installments, in response to SanDisk investor relations.
SanDisk can be investing $1 billion in Nanya Expertise, a transfer Moore flagged as a possible affect on wafer combine and ASP dynamics.
What SanDisk buyers ought to watch on April 30
Morgan Stanley sees the April 30 report as a high-bar occasion. “A high bar for this week’s earnings makes the T+1 reaction difficult to predict,” Moore wrote. “But [we] still see peak cycle FCF as underappreciated.”
Three metrics will matter most for SanDisk.
- First, whether or not income lands inside or above the $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion steerage vary
- Second, whether or not gross margin expands towards the 78% vary Morgan Stanley fashions
- Third, what administration says about hyperscaler order visibility and LTA progress
SanDisk’s inventory is now pushed extra by the length of the NAND upcycle than by any single quarter’s headline numbers. Steering language will transfer the inventory greater than the beat itself, in response to 24/7 Wall St.
For buyers in SanDisk, Morgan Stanley’s message is evident. The cycle has extra room to run. Earnings energy is being underestimated by consensus. And free money circulation from multi-year LTAs anticipated later in 2026 is a proof level the market has not but priced in.
Associated: Financial institution of America resets Sandisk inventory value for the remainder of 2026
