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It’s unusual to suppose that simply final 12 months, buyers have been celebrating the FTSE 100 breaking by 8,000 factors. Now sitting above 9,500, it appears virtually inevitable that the index will smash the historic 10,000 mark.
However can it nonetheless occur in 2025, with the 12 months quickly drawing to a detailed? I made a decision to see what the specialists suppose.
Cautious optimism
The Footsie’s been on a roll this 12 months. It broke 8,800 factors in February and crossed 9,000 in July. As October started, the index surged once more, touching a brand new file above 9,400 factors. Momentum, valuation power and broad sector resilience have helped push it to contemporary highs.
Some commentators even counsel it may attain 10,000 by Christmas if present momentum holds. Nevertheless, few main analysts are that bullish. Citigroup not too long ago nudged its mid-2026 FTSE 100 goal from 9,300 to 9,700 — a optimistic sign, however nonetheless shy of 5 figures.
Development-based forecasts paint the same image. Many fashions counsel an end-of-2025 stage close to 9,638, with longer-term projections stretching in the direction of 11,800. The Financial system Forecast Company, for instance, sees potential for 11,600-13,347 by mid-2027, implying loads of progress forward even when 10,000 proves elusive this 12 months.
So whereas optimism’s constructing, the consensus stays cautious. The broader market may have one other leg of earnings progress or a robust increase from the commodities and monetary sectors to tip over that symbolic milestone.
Driving the optimism
One FTSE 100 inventory that’s doing its half to carry the index is Fresnillo (LSE: FRES). The Mexican-based treasured metals miner has been one among 2025’s standout performers, hovering an astonishing 280% since January.
In its newest H1 2025 earnings outcomes, introduced on 30 June, it posted a 34.84% 12 months on 12 months income increase to £3.05bn. Earnings did even higher, up 78.48% to £351.92m, giving it a internet margin of 11.54%.
Rising gold and silver costs have been a key catalyst. With gold not too long ago topping $4,000 per ounce, the corporate’s revenue margins have expanded sharply. Now, its ahead price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits round 23.7 – properly above the FTSE common. But its price-to-earnings progress (PEG) ratio of 0.61 hints that earnings are maintaining tempo with valuation.
Nonetheless, there are dangers. Gold and silver are basic safe-haven property that are likely to rise when buyers fear about inflation, debt or geopolitical instability. Ought to confidence return to world markets or rates of interest rise quicker than anticipated, demand may cool shortly – pulling treasured metals, and Fresnillo’s share value, down with it.
Regardless of this, I believe it stays a inventory value contemplating. It’s a robust enterprise with environment friendly operations, low manufacturing prices and a sturdy stability sheet. Even when commodity costs ease, its long-term fundamentals look strong.
My take
The FTSE 100’s march towards 10,000 won’t occur in 2025 – however it feels nearer than ever. With heavyweight shares like Fresnillo serving to to gas momentum and earnings progress returning throughout the board, the index seems well-positioned for regular progress.
I believe affected person buyers may see 10,000 in sight earlier than lengthy, even when they’ve to attend just a little previous New 12 months’s Eve.
