Bitcoin has dropped beneath $100,000 for the second time in per week, shedding 12% in a month. The general crypto market has misplaced over $700 billion previously month, because the Concern and Greed Index has fallen to ‘extreme fear’.
So, do all of those market indicators sign a bear market? Let’s analyze the technical and historic information.
Sentiment Alerts Are at Bear-Market Ranges
The Concern & Greed Index at 10 displays excessive worry similar to early 2022 and June 2022, each confirmed bear-market phases.
- Yesterday: 16
- Final week: 20
- Final month: 28
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The pattern reveals accelerating worry, not stabilizing sentiment. Bear runs often start with this type of persistent worry compression.
Nonetheless, sentiment alone doesn’t verify a bear market — it solely alerts capitulation or exhaustion.
Crypto Concern & Greed Index. Supply: Various
Bitcoin Has Damaged Its Most Essential Bull-Market Help
The 365-day transferring common is the long-term structural pivot.
Present state of affairs:
- The 365-day MA is close to $102,000.
- Bitcoin is buying and selling beneath it.
- The breakdown mirrors December 2021, when worth misplaced the identical MA and the bear market began.
Traditionally:
CycleMA Misplaced?End result2018YesFull bear market2021YesFull bear market2025Yes (now)Bear-phase danger rising
Failing to reclaim this degree shortly typically confirms a cycle regime shift. This is among the strongest technical arguments for a bear-market transition.
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Bitcoin “Death Cross” Simply Flashed!
The Dying Cross (An sarcastically BULLISH indicator) has simply triggered, EXACTLY timed with BTC tagging the decrease boundary of the megaphone sample it is in.
A number of weeks in the past we predicted this may occur round mid-November. Properly, right here we’re.… https://t.co/quqAs4qhXn pic.twitter.com/xBDjoMFnrL
— 𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) November 15, 2025
On-Chain Price Foundation Exhibits Early Capitulation, Not Distribution Prime
The 6–12 month UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) realized worth now sits round $94,600. Bitcoin worth presently stands barely above this degree.
This issues as a result of:
- These holders purchased in the course of the ETF rally.
- They symbolize “bull-cycle conviction buyers.”
- When their place enters loss, market construction weakens.
In 2021, Bitcoin worth falling beneath this cohort’s price foundation was one of many closing alerts earlier than the prolonged downtrend. That is the primary time that cost-basis stress has reappeared since 2022.
This helps the thought of a mid-cycle break, not but a full macro bear pattern.
BULL MARKETS DON’T END LIKE THIS!
I’ve been round for a number of bull/bear markets,
2001 dotcom, 2008 housing, 2017 crypto , 2021 crypto and so forth and so forth.
When bull markets finish , both one thing breaks or perception within the asset/ market crumbles.
In 2001, folks actually doubted the…
— Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) November 15, 2025
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RSI Exhibits Oversold Situations, Typical of Mid-Cycle Crashes
Market-wide RSI readings:
- Common crypto RSI: 43.09
- BTC RSI is among the many lowest in giant caps
- Solely 2.5% of property are overbought
- Most are in oversold territory
This resembles Could–July 2021, August 2023, and August 2024. Every was a mid-cycle correction, not an end-of-cycle bear. When RSI stays deeply oversold for weeks, bearish momentum confirms.
Proper now, RSI reveals stress however not but pattern reversal.
MACD Exhibits Robust Divergence Throughout the Market
The common normalized MACD is presently 0.02. This means weak bullish momentum returning. Additionally, 58% of the market property have optimistic momentum.
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Bitcoin, nevertheless, sits deep within the adverse zone whereas altcoins are combined.
When BTC has adverse MACD however the market nonetheless has 50%+ optimistic momentum, the market is in a transition section quite than a full bear pattern.
In full bear markets, 90%+ of property present adverse MACD concurrently. Proper now, that’s not the case.
The crypto market is just not in a confirmed bear market — it’s in a mid-cycle breakdown with a rising likelihood of turning into a bear market if two circumstances are met.
These are the three circumstances that will verify a bear run:
- Bitcoin stays beneath the 365-day MA for 4–6 weeks. This triggered each bear market in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
- Lengthy-term holders proceed heavy distribution. If LTH (long-term holder) promoting exceeds 1M BTC over 60 days, the cycle prime is in.
- MACD flips absolutely adverse throughout the whole market. We’re not there but.
TBH that is the simplest bear market I’ve ever seen.
Looks as if most of you could have forgotten what 2022 was like. Luna collapsing, then 3AC, then FTX, then Genesis, BlockFi, Axie, NFTs–just about the whole lot felt like a home of playing cards.
After which in spite of everything that stuff collapsed, the… https://t.co/DUwOZCBG3K
— Haseeb ＞|＜ (@hosseeb) November 14, 2025
General, crypto is just not but in a bear market, however the present breakdown places the market in a high-risk zone the place a bear market may kind if Bitcoin fails to reclaim long-term help quickly.
