Neglect all of the recession chatter. Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon feels the financial backdrop for 2026 seems sturdy.
In a current CNBC interview, the veteran banker feels the macro setup is “quite good,” pointing to sturdy fiscal assist, unbelievable AI-driven capital funding, and a extra conducive enterprise surroundings.
Furthermore, Solomon mentioned strategic exercise is choosing up at a formidable tempo, with companies imagining massive offers once more. IPO discussions are heating up properly, whereas some choices, he suggests, may very well be unprecedented in measurement.
Clearly, that’s a giant shift in tone from the damaging chatter we’ve seen in regards to the financial system recently.
Additionally, in a current article I wrote, Financial institution of America CEO Brian Moynihan echoed that very same optimism from a shopper angle.
In response to Moynihan, BofA’s information confirmed that January exercise ran almost 5% above final 12 months, as spending continues to climb throughout numerous earnings brackets.
Taken collectively, the message from Wall Road’s high ground is that regardless of the uneven development, it’s nonetheless very a lot alive.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says the macro setup for 2026 is “quite good,” citing fiscal stimulus and AI funding.
Picture by Nicolò Campo on Getty Pictures
Goldman’s earnings present why massive banks are feeling upbeat
The massive banks are coming off a power-packed earnings stretch.
Business bellwethers equivalent to Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and friends have, for essentially the most half, proven that they proceed to maintain charges ticking up, shield margins, and effectively handle credit score danger regardless of a testy financial system.
That’s indicative of wholesome pipelines and shopper exercise which have held up lots higher than the headlines presently counsel.
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Goldman’s newest quarterly report is an ideal instance.
The financial institution posted a cushty beat on earnings energy, even with a particular drag linked to its exit from the Apple Card enterprise.
Put collectively, the core machine regarded stable, and a short lived accounting swing made the top-line determine look lots softer than it actually was.
Goldman Sachs This fall earnings snapshot
- EPS:$14.01 versus $11.65 anticipated (beat); up from $11.95 a 12 months in the past.
- Income:$13.5 billion vs $13.9 billion anticipated (miss); down versus $13.9 billion final 12 months.
- Apple Card drag: Platform Options income swung to -$1.68 billion attributable to a $2.26 billion markdown tied to the pending Apple Card portfolio sale.
- Credit score prices: Provision was a +$2.12 billion profit (reserve launch), together with a $2.48 billion reserve discount tied to the Apple Card switch.
- Engines nonetheless operating: International Banking & Markets income $10.4 billion (+22% year-over-year); funding banking charges $2.58 billion (+25% year-over-year); equities $4.31 billion (+25% year-over-year), whereas FICC jumped +12% 12 months over 12 months regardless of a quarter-over-quarter dip.
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Solomon’s financial view is upbeat, with one massive caveat
Solomon believes that the U.S. financial system has much more carry than the “doom” crowd needs to confess at this level, Solomon advised CNBC.
He backs all of it up with precise development expectations.
Solomon factors to Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius, who initiatives a formidable 2.9% actual development together with 5% nominal development, including that we might doubtlessly see higher than that.
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Furthermore, he connects his macro power argument to the habits in capital markets.
Solomon feels we’ve moved into an surroundings the place companies can as soon as once more freely discover strategic strikes, reopening that pesky IPO window.
He explicitly states that he expects “more IPOs this year” and even “some very, very large IPOs unprecedented in size.”
The smaller IPOs, although, are nonetheless going through appreciable headwinds as personal capital stays plentiful and presents founders a cleaner exit.
The optimism comes with a warning label.
He has “real concern” about deficits, arguing that the bond market has been “benign,” even with the Fed cuts totaling 1%.
Additionally, if development doesn’t rise and stay elevated with enhancements in deficits, issues might get uneven.
The deal machine is again, and 2026 may very well be even larger
The massive banks are feeling much more assured about deal-making of late.
Their respective pipelines are constructing, with sponsors searching for exits, and company CEOs turning into far more keen to tug the set off.
CEO Solomon put it bluntly at a UBS monetary companies convention in Florida, Reuters reported.
JPMorgan’s Troy Rohrbaugh, co-CEO of the Business & Funding Financial institution, struck an identical tone on the convention.
Goldman Sachs topped the checklist in world mergers and acquisitions, advising on an eye-watering $1.48 trillion price of transactions, in response to Reuters, whereas pulling in $4.6 billion in charges.
In 2025, banks noticed one other scorching 12 months on the funding facet, with Morgan Stanley saying that world merger and acquisitions quantity jumped to just about 40% in 2025, backed by a file 60 offers valued over $10 billion.
After which there’s the fiery IPO market.
U.S. IPO proceeds surged to a whopping $44 billion in 2025, up considerably from $29.6 billion in 2024 and simply $19.5 billion in 2023, per Renaissance Capital.
Backing that up, PwC mentioned that so-called “traditional IPOs” raised a large $33.6 billion in 2025, with a backlog of offers pushing into this 12 months.
The 2026 IPO class seems large
To this point, plainly 2026 may very well be one other big 12 months for IPOs.
Goldman Sachs mentioned U.S. IPO proceeds might doubtlessly quadruple to $160 billion (starting from $80 billion to $200 billion), per reporting from Reuters, with the IPO rely doubling to just about 120 choices.
Renaissance Capital, although, initiatives a extra normalized trajectory, at 200 to 230 IPOs in 2026, elevating someplace between $40 billion and $60 billion.
- SpaceX: A rumored IPO is within the playing cards for June, Reuters studies. It is doubtlessly valued at north of $1.5 trillion, with over $25.6 billion raised, setting a file.
- OpenAI: The groundwork is laid for a deal valuing it at $1 trillion (timing mentioned within the second half of 2026).
- Anthropic: IPO prep is ready to start as early as 2026, with the most recent spherical implied at a virtually $350 billion valuation, Monetary Occasions reported.
- Stripe: A young supply factors to a valuation at or above $140 billion, preserving IPO chatter alive within the course of, in response to Bloomberg.
- Databricks: Contemporary funding pegged the Large Information participant’s valuation at a whopping $134 billion after a $5 billion increase.
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