Gemini Director of Institutional, Patrick Liou, says 2026 will mark a structural break for crypto markets. He predicts that long-held narratives round Bitcoin cycles, regulation, and capital flows are giving approach to a extra institutional and macro-driven regime.
In a set of 5 trade predictions shared this week, Liou outlined why 2026 may reshape how buyers, policymakers, and even sovereign states deal with Bitcoin and crypto infrastructure.
Bitcoin’s 4-12 months Cycle is Useless
Liou argues that Bitcoin ending 2026 in damaging territory would invalidate the standard four-year cycle playbook.
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As an alternative of the 75–90% drawdowns seen in prior cycles, Bitcoin is roughly 30% under its highs, reflecting a extra mature market construction.
That view aligns with current market conduct. ETF flows, derivatives depth, and institutional custody have absorbed provide shocks that when drove excessive boom-bust cycles.
Lots of people have been asking for an replace on this chart, so I’ll simply go away this right here for anybody who must see it.
This exhibits the common BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI studying, with RSI falling under 30 at t=0.
To date, it’s been fairly bang on.
Except you… pic.twitter.com/FRLt5w7oFT
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) December 17, 2025
Choices markets additionally replicate this shift, with implied volatility holding within the 25–40% vary, effectively under historic peaks close to 80%.
Consequently, Bitcoin now trades extra like a macro asset. BTC is now tied to liquidity and positioning resets quite than a calendar-driven halving commerce.
2026 US Midterms Will See Bipartisan Crypto Assist
The Gemini government expects crypto to emerge as a bipartisan coverage focus forward of the 2026 US midterms.
Whereas Republicans moved first in courting crypto voters, Democrats are more and more participating as market construction laws features momentum.
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Within the 2024 US elections, a number of crypto corporations donated thousands and thousands to Donald Trump’s marketing campaign.
However, for the upcoming midterms, solely two crypto companies are dominantly main the Republican push.
Ripple and Coinbase have already donated greater than $56 million to Trump’s GOP.
No… pic.twitter.com/f8kp6AHzgy
— BeInCrypto (@beincrypto) October 6, 2025
That prediction matches current developments. The long-debated market construction invoice, or CLARITY Act, stays stalled however continues to advance by bipartisan negotiations.
A number of analysts count on a Senate breakthrough in early 2026, with sufficient cross-party assist to bypass filibuster danger.
Additionally, crypto coverage is changing into a marketing campaign concern in swing states reminiscent of Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan. Candidates from each events are beginning to deal with regulation, innovation, and investor safety.
Extra Crypto-Powered Prediction Markets
Liou sees crypto-powered prediction markets as a serious disruption in 2026, pushed by their skill to combination real-time info extra effectively than polls or forecasts.
This pattern is already seen. Polymarket’s development over the previous yr has drawn new entrants, together with exchange-backed and controlled platforms.
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A number of crypto companies like Coinbase have moved aggressively into prediction markets. The growth displays broader demand for market-based forecasting tied to politics, macro occasions, and financial outcomes.
Digital Asset Treasuries Will Merge to Survive
Current months have already proven stress throughout publicly listed crypto treasury automobiles, with sharp fairness underperformance, dilution danger, and balance-sheet pressure.
MSTR Inventory Worth Chart in 2025. Supply: Google FinanceSponsored
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MicroStrategy, which is the most important Bitcoin treasury agency, skilled large losses in This fall 2025. MSTR inventory ended 2025 with a staggering 60% loss.
In 2026, easy buy-and-hold methods could not be viable. It will push weaker gamers towards mergers or exits.
Nation State Sells Gold Reserve to Purchase Bitcoin
Lastly, the Gemini government forecasts that a minimum of one nation-state will promote a part of its gold reserves to purchase Bitcoin. It will formalize BTC because the ‘Digital Gold.’
The thought is not fringe. The US has already established a strategic digital asset framework by seized Bitcoin.
On the identical time, international locations reminiscent of Germany, Sweden, and the Czech Republic have brazenly debated Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
For nations searching for diversification or diminished reliance on the greenback, Bitcoin’s portability and verifiability current a compelling different.
General, Liou’s predictions level to 2026 as a yr the place crypto’s subsequent section is formed much less by hype cycles and extra by establishments, coverage, and sovereign capital.
