Farmer says ‘we’re in a really dire scenario’ forward of harvest—with zero soybean orders from China, traditionally the biggest purchaser | Fortune

American soybean farmers are heading into harvest season and not using a single order from China, traditionally their largest buyer, elevating alarm bells concerning the agricultural sector’s stability and broader implications for the U.S. financial system.

Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Affiliation and a ninth-generation farmer from Kentucky, issued a stark warning concerning the disaster going through the nation’s 500,000 soybean growers. “Right now, we’re in a very dire situation,” Ragland stated in a TikTok video that has drawn nationwide consideration to farmers’ plight.

In a separate CNN interview, Ragland emphasised the size of China’s significance to American agriculture: “China takes more of our soybeans than all other foreign customers combined,” he stated, noting that fifty% of U.S. soybeans are exported and China represents 1 / 4 of whole demand.

The absence of Chinese language orders represents a dramatic departure from regular buying and selling patterns. China usually accounted for over 25% of whole U.S. soybean purchases, with roughly one-third of annual gross sales to the nation usually booked by this level within the season. This interprets to roughly 8%-9% of your complete U.S. crop that will usually be bought to China by now presently sitting at zero.

The commerce dispute has pushed already-struggling farmers to the brink. Ragland informed CNN that soybean costs have fallen 40% from their ranges three years in the past, whereas manufacturing prices and rates of interest have risen. “We’re looking at basically losses for the upcoming year if commodity prices don’t improve,” he stated.

Present soybean futures costs mirror the uncertainty, buying and selling round $10.10 per bushel for September contracts—nicely beneath estimated manufacturing prices of roughly $11.03 per bushel. Ragland’s personal farm is presently producing $750,000 in losses, forcing him to depend on loans to bridge the monetary hole.

“Right now we’re planting a crop that looks like it will be produced at a loss,” he informed CNN. “By fall, when the soybeans are harvested and ready to sell, we’re gonna need a drastic improvement in our markets or it’s gonna get even tougher for farm families all across this country.”

The monetary strain extends past particular person operations. “There’s not much room for error right now in the budgets,” Ragland stated, emphasizing that every one 500,000 soybean farmers nationwide face related challenges.

Financial stakes attain past farming

The implications lengthen far past particular person farms. Agriculture contributes $9.5 trillion to the U.S. financial system yearly, representing 18.7% of whole nationwide financial output. The agricultural sector instantly and not directly helps over 1,000,000 American jobs, with soybean exports alone producing greater than 231,000 jobs throughout farming, manufacturing, transportation, and associated industries.

Ragland highlighted these broader financial connections in his CNN interview: “That trickles down to our rural communities. Our rural communities are a lot of folks across this country. And that impacts small business. That impacts just the whole infrastructure within our communities.”

In 2023, each $1 billion in U.S. agricultural exports supported roughly 5,997 jobs. Soybeans and corn bulk exports alone supported over 212,520 jobs. The financial multiplier impact means disruptions to soybean commerce ripple by manufacturing, logistics, and rural communities nationwide.

Commerce tensions reshape world markets

The standoff stems from ongoing U.S.-China commerce tensions, which have essentially altered world soybean commerce patterns. U.S. soybeans presently face a 20% retaliatory tariff drawback in comparison with South American rivals, pushing the overall obligation charge on American soybeans to 34% when mixed with different taxes.

China has responded by dramatically rising purchases from Brazil. Chinese language soybean imports hit report highs in July, pushed largely by Brazilian exports. Brazil exported roughly 15.7 million tons of soybeans in March 2025, with three-quarters destined for China—the best month-to-month quantity ever exported to China. In 2024, China sourced 71% of its whole soybean imports from Brazil, up from earlier years.

The American Soybean Affiliation warned in an August 19 letter to President Trump that “China has contracted with Brazil to meet future months’ needs to avoid purchasing any soybeans from the United States.”

Appeals for swift authorities motion

Regardless of his help for Trump, Ragland has turn into more and more vocal concerning the want for fast commerce decision. “We desperately need to get something rectified quickly with China, our biggest export customer,” he informed CNN. “We wanna encourage the administration to get a proactive trade deal done.”

When requested concerning the administration’s requires persistence, Ragland emphasised the time-sensitive nature of the disaster. Farmers are “planning a crop that looks like it will be produced at a loss,” and with out market enhancements earlier than harvest, the scenario will deteriorate additional.

The broader agricultural sector is experiencing what trade teams describe as an financial disaster. The Nationwide Corn Growers Affiliation stories corn costs have fallen greater than 50% from their 2022 highs, with manufacturing prices declining solely 3% over the identical interval. This agricultural downturn comes because the 2025 U.S. soybean crop is forecast at almost 4.3 billion bushels, the nation’s sixth-largest harvest in historical past. Nevertheless, with out Chinese language demand, this plentiful provide threatens to additional depress costs and worsen farmers’ monetary misery.

The scenario echoes the 2018-2020 commerce conflict, throughout which U.S. agriculture misplaced $26 billion, with almost $20 billion in soybean losses alone. Soybeans accounted for 71% of agricultural losses skilled by American farmers throughout that earlier battle.

Time operating out for decision

The urgency displays the seasonal nature of agricultural markets. As harvest approaches and storage amenities fill with unsold grain, costs usually face further downward strain. With out decision quickly, farmers could also be compelled to promote their crops at deeply discounted costs or face costly storage prices by the winter months.

Present commerce dynamics present restricted progress towards decision. Whereas President Trump signed an govt order in August extending the present tariff truce with China by 90 days by November 10, the extension primarily addresses broader commerce points somewhat than agricultural-specific issues.

Ragland framed the disaster when it comes to nationwide energy: “We want to keep this nation strong. We’re the backbone of America,” he stated.

Regardless of acknowledging that he believes Trump “loves farmers” and is “trying to do what’s right for this country,” he emphasised the necessity for fast motion: “We gotta make sure that we survive through these tough times.”

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to assist with an preliminary draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the data earlier than publishing.

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