Chase Guo, a former enterprise improvement govt at Binance, has made a daring prediction: Bitcoin will attain a brand new all-time excessive (ATH) in 2026 —however not for the explanations most market members count on.
Talking in a current interview, the ex-Binance BD argued that the subsequent main Bitcoin breakout is not going to be pushed primarily by the halving cycle, retail euphoria, or macroeconomic tailwinds.
Liquidity Engineering — Not Hype — May Drive Bitcoin’s 2026 Breakout
As a substitute, he believes the catalyst will come from liquidity positioning and structural dynamics throughout the crypto market itself.
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“The reason will shock people,” Guo stated, suggesting that market mechanics — somewhat than narrative conviction — will play the decisive position.
In line with the previous govt, crypto asset pricing is ruled by three dominant forces:
- Liquidity
- Consideration, and
- Token holder construction (also known as “chip structure”).
These components, he argued, decide worth developments over short- to medium-term cycles starting from seven days to a few months.
On this framework, long-term fundamentals usually take a again seat. As a substitute, capital inflows and outflows, social media momentum, and the distribution of tokens amongst holders form volatility and pattern course.
Whereas Bitcoin is commonly framed as a long-term retailer of worth, the ex-Binance insider emphasised that even BTC stays closely influenced by short-term liquidity flows and leveraged positioning.
Consensus Is the Goal
A key element of his 2026 forecast facilities on how massive gamers work together with market consensus. When a majority of merchants align round a bullish or bearish narrative, liquidity usually clusters round predictable worth ranges.
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In line with the previous BD, this creates alternatives for classy market members to engineer volatility.
“When consensus forms, it becomes a target,” he implied, pointing to historic episodes the place crowded positioning led to speedy liquidations and sharp worth reversals earlier than new developments emerged.
In his view, the subsequent Bitcoin ATH might emerge from such a liquidity squeeze situation — the place positioning, derivatives publicity, and capital rotation align to pressure worth discovery past earlier highs.
Market Cap Context
Bitcoin’s market capitalization at present sits at a fraction of gold’s, leaving room for enlargement if international liquidity circumstances stay supportive.
Even modest institutional or sovereign capital rotation, he recommended, might considerably affect worth ranges given BTC’s comparatively mounted provide.
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Nonetheless, the professional cautions that the trail to new highs would seemingly be unstable and counterintuitive. Reasonably than a easy, narrative-driven rally, he anticipates sharp swings designed to shake out overleveraged merchants earlier than a sustained breakout.
A Structural, Not Emotional, Rally
Not like prior cycles fueled by retail enthusiasm, meme-driven hypothesis, or halving hype, the expected 2026 rally could stem from structural liquidity dynamics embedded in crypto’s maturing market infrastructure.
If Guo’s thesis proves appropriate, the subsequent ATH gained’t merely be a narrative of perception in digital gold. Reasonably, will probably be an illustration of how liquidity engineering and consensus positioning form fashionable crypto markets.
Chase’s remarks acquire extra weight when considered in opposition to the backdrop of formal regulatory motion and repeated public allegations.
His description of a market dominated by liquidity video games and short-term incentives carefully mirrors the US SEC’s claims in its 2023 lawsuit in opposition to Binance and founder Changpeng Zhao.
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The criticism alleged wash buying and selling, inflated volumes, and in-house market-making practices designed to form worth notion.
By framing manipulation as “open” and normalized, Chase’s feedback seem much less like remoted criticism and extra like insider affirmation of systemic vulnerabilities.
Allegations surrounding the October 10, 2025, “10/10” flash crash additional intensified scrutiny of Binance. Critics argue the trade’s construction could have amplified cascading liquidations.
In the course of the sharp selloff, which hit Bitcoin and main altcoins inside minutes, customers reported order delays, disabled capabilities, and strange worth wicks. These disruptions triggered pressured liquidations at ranges far above regular, echoing earlier accusations of engineered volatility.
Binance management, together with Richard Teng and founder Changpeng Zhao, attributed the occasion to macro shocks and industry-wide leverage, denying manipulation.
Nonetheless, the episode bolstered broader issues — beforehand raised in actions by the US SEC that opaque market-making practices and concentrated liquidity can amplify systemic threat during times of stress.
