The prediction market house is without doubt one of the quickest rising in finance. Two years in the past, Polymarket reportedly raised funds at a $350 million valuation. At the moment, the platform is in talks to lift funds at a valuation of $15 billion, The Info reported. However the windfall could also be made rather less candy by the success of Polymarket’s bitter rival, Kalshi, which was most lately valued at $22 billion.
The practically one-third valuation low cost for Polymarket may very well be defined by Kalshi’s stronger foothold within the U.S., the place it at the moment holds roughly 90% market share, or by its stronger income figures, since Polymarket only in the near past began charging buying and selling charges. However the motive for traders’ discounting of Polymarket might lie with a extra idiosyncratic issue—the cryptocurrency token the corporate plans to launch, which makes it harder to gauge the stickiness of Polymarket’s present buying and selling quantity.
The latest divergence in how traders worth Polymarket and Kalshi is noteworthy provided that the 2 corporations’ valuations have moved in lockstep for the previous yr. Polymarket and Kalshi supply practically the identical product, and if prediction markets flip right into a winner-take-most sector, then the horse race between the 2 startups might have main stakes for traders.
One key distinction between the companies, although, is that Polymarket’s non-U.S. arm is constructed on blockchain rails, and the mission has deep roots within the crypto house: Its 2020 seed spherical was backed by crypto enterprise capital companies Polychain, ParaFi, and 1Confirmation. That is in distinction to Kalshi, which runs on conventional monetary rails and is usually much less ingrained within the crypto world.
What’s a token value?
Polymarket has teased the thought of releasing a crypto token for years. The corporate’s chief advertising officer mentioned in an October 2025 podcast look: “There will be a token, there will be an airdrop,” referring to a apply the place crypto tasks will distribute free tokens to energy customers in a bid to drive exercise and reward loyal followers. Since crypto platforms usually dole out token airdrops based mostly on consumer exercise, it’s frequent for patrons to make use of stunts to overstate their engagement on the platform, a apply generally known as “airdrop farming.” In some instances, that may embody so-called wash buying and selling, the place customers commerce with themselves.
“Polymarket’s volume is being read as pure product demand. Airdrop farming is why that read is misleading,” Eric Chen, cofounder of the blockchain Injective, informed Fortune. “Polymarket has real demand, and the honest question is what share of the reported number actually represents it.”
Polymarket has surpassed $2 billion in weekly buying and selling quantity for eight consecutive weeks, based on information from Artemis, approaching however sometimes lagging simply behind Kalshi’s weekly quantity. Polymarket didn’t return a request for remark.
For some trade watchers, it is going to be tough to separate Polymarket’s natural utilization from customers jockeying for an airdrop till after it releases its token.
“None of this takes away from the platform’s innovation or long-term potential, but it does mean that volume and user growth should be viewed with context,” Digital Wealth Companions CEO Max Kahn mentioned. “The key question over time will be whether engagement remains strong once incentives fade, as that’s a better indicator of durable usage and product-market fit.”
Nonetheless, speculative exercise surrounding a crypto token doesn’t essentially result in a falloff in consumer exercise. Hyperliquid was as soon as standard amongst airdrop farmers, however the crypto derivatives platform has solely grown extra standard within the time since its HYPE token debuted. In the meantime, the launch of a Polymarket token might present a monetary windfall and enhance the corporate’s valuation in the long term.
“Looking back at HYPE, they were very [successful] and continued to be so afterwards,” Nansen analysis analyst Nicolai Søndergaard mentioned. “So even if a lot of volume is happening due to airdrop farming, it is not cause for concern if the underlying ‘product’ is good enough and will keep people around.”
