Bitcoin choice buyers are taking modest lengthy positions after the asset’s value broke above $120,000, signaling that whereas there may be optimism for a rise, it’s not a powerful conviction.
Glassnode shared this market sentiment on Friday by way of a submit on X, full with on-chain knowledge.
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A Wager on ‘Uptober’ in BTC Possibility Market
Based on the agency’s submit, Bitcoin choices flows are clustering between the $100,000 and $120,000 strike costs, with solely mild name curiosity noticed at $130,000.
This means two key developments within the Bitcoin choices market. First, there may be elevated exercise in name choices throughout the $100,000–$120,000 vary, suggesting that merchants are positioning for potential upside past $100,000.
A name choice provides the holder the best to purchase an asset at a selected value, so elevated curiosity on this vary usually displays bullish sentiment or hedging in opposition to a big value rally.
Nonetheless, the comparatively low quantity of name choices at $130,000 reveals that expectations for a transfer far past $120,000 stay restricted, a minimum of for now. In different phrases, whereas there may be optimism out there, it comes with measured conviction.
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The second phenomenon is a rise in very long-term name choices within the $300,000 vary. Out-of-the-Cash (OTM) choices are these with a strike value nicely above the present value. The $300,000 stage Glassnode talked about is a really excessive value vary in comparison with Bitcoin’s present value of round $120,000.
This rising investor curiosity in these ultra-high-priced name choices will be interpreted as “cheap convexity bets.” Convexity is a construction the place income improve dramatically as the value rises. In different phrases, buyers are taking a strategic place to realize large returns with a small funding within the occasion of an enormous Bitcoin value surge.
These strikes will not be a agency directional wager that Bitcoin’s value will truly rise to $300,000. As an alternative, they present {that a} robust sentiment-driven want to realize publicity to potential upside is driving the market.
In the meantime, the Ethereum choices market reveals a very completely different sample. A lot of merchants are promoting ETH places set to run out on October 10 and BTC $120,000 calls, getting ready for continued consolidation in Ethereum’s value.
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This technique permits merchants to gather premiums by betting that neither asset will see a big, short-term value improve. With Bitcoin’s dominance rising within the choices market, a lot of the exercise is shifting away from Ethereum.
A Historic Have a look at Bitcoin’s October
So, how excessive can Bitcoin’s value go? Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson addressed this query in a submit on X, the place he used historic knowledge to forecast a possible value vary for BTC in October.
“Bitcoin’s performance in October isn’t “set up” by September, its arrange all through all the yr,” the analyst mentioned.
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He defined that whereas Bitcoin has traditionally been robust in October, the energy of its rally is closely influenced by the momentum of the primary 9 months of the yr. The worth improve from January to September determines the depth of that yr’s “Uptober.”
A chart evaluating the January-to-September returns with October returns since 2015 reveals that Bitcoin has traditionally amplified its previous momentum. When year-to-date returns are excessive, October sees an even bigger rally; when they’re weak, October stays subdued.
In 2025, the January-to-September return was about 20%, marking the weakest bull market yr on file. The information suggests October could ship a weaker efficiency than in earlier years.
Timothy Peterson mentioned that from a historic perspective, the anticipated value vary for this October’s rally is +7% to +31%. This is able to translate to a value vary of $122,000 to $149,000.
