Bloomberg’s year-end Trumponomics podcast delivered a complete outlook for the worldwide financial system in 2026. Stephanie Flanders, head of presidency and economics at Bloomberg, hosted the episode.
It featured Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics; Mario Parker, managing editor for US politics; and Parmy Olson, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist protecting AI.
Sponsored
No Crypto Speak, However 4 Themes Matter
Over almost 48 minutes, the panel lined a broad vary of subjects, together with commerce and tariffs, safety (Ukraine), AI, the Federal Reserve, China, and the general US financial system. Notably, cryptocurrency was by no means instantly talked about.
Nonetheless, 4 themes mentioned in the course of the podcast stand out as significantly related for digital asset markets heading into 2026. Under is an evaluation of these chosen subjects and their potential implications for crypto.
1. Threats to Fed Independence
Orlik addressed the Federal Reserve’s independence as one of the consequential points for 2026. President Trump may have the authority to nominate a brand new Fed chair when Powell’s time period ends in Could 2026. Kevin Hasset is extensively thought-about a number one candidate, whereas Steven Myron has already joined the Fed board.
“An independent Federal Reserve is a fundamental underpinning of market confidence that the US will be serious about controlling inflation,” Orlik mentioned. “If that confidence is undermined, well, the status of the dollar, the status of the Treasury market, both open to question.”
Crypto implication: Erosion of Fed independence is a double-edged sword for crypto. If the greenback’s credibility weakens, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative might achieve traction. Grayscale famous in its 2026 outlook that “the outlook for fiat currencies is increasingly uncertain; in contrast, we can be highly confident that the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026.”
Sponsored
Nonetheless, coverage uncertainty might additionally set off risk-off sentiment, pressuring crypto costs within the brief time period alongside different threat property.
2. AI Bubble Threat
Olson warned of a possible correction in AI-related shares in 2026. “You’ve got 900 million people using ChatGPT every week. That’s astoundingly successful from a market dominance perspective, but it’s not really making money for OpenAI because very few of those people are paying subscriptions,” she mentioned. She in contrast the present setting to the dot-com bubble and the Nineteenth-century railroad growth.
Crypto implication: QCP Capital analysts famous that “crypto remains caught in the macro crosscurrents,” with AI shares appearing as “a key driver of broader risk sentiment.” If AI shares appropriate, the ensuing risk-off sentiment would seemingly drag crypto markets down as properly.
Sponsored
3. Tariff Go-By to the Actual Economic system
Orlik famous that one shock of 2025 was how slowly tariffs handed via to shopper costs and company earnings. Nonetheless, he expects this to vary in early 2026. “That pass-through of tariffs to the rest of the economy—higher prices at the shops, lower margins for US businesses, potentially a hit to US stocks—that’s still something that will play out in the early months of 2026,” he mentioned.
Crypto implication: If tariff-driven inflation persists, the Fed’s capability to chop charges will likely be constrained. YouHodler famous that “prolonged high interest rates could reduce risk appetite and slow capital inflows into crypto assets.” Nonetheless, in a stagflation state of affairs—the place inflation persists alongside slowing progress—Bitcoin could possibly be re-evaluated as an inflation hedge.
4. Greenback Stability and Political Dynamics
Orlik highlighted a possible paradox in post-midterm political dynamics. If Trump loses floor within the midterms and faces gridlock in Congress, he could flip to the Fed—the place he may have appointed his personal chair—in its place lever of affect.
Sponsored
“It could be that there’s some dynamic between loss of power at the midterms, greater capacity to and willingness to influence the Fed, which could potentially play out in a pretty negative way for the US bond market.”
Crypto implication: Greenback instability has traditionally correlated with Bitcoin demand. Grayscale projected that “digital money systems like Bitcoin and Ethereum that offer transparent, programmatic, and ultimately scarce supply will be in rising demand due to rising fiat currency risks.”
Q1 Will Set the Course
Institutional forecasts for Bitcoin’s 2026 value fluctuate extensively. Grayscale expects a brand new all-time excessive within the first half of the 12 months, declaring “the end of the four-year cycle theory.” JP Morgan tasks $170,000, whereas Fundstrat sees $200,000 to $250,000. Bear-case eventualities level to a possible drop beneath $75,000 if world liquidity tightens.
The large image for 2026 seems bullish, given the Trump financial mandate, the Fed’s coverage trajectory, and crypto-friendly regulation. However the unknown outcomes of the AI buildout and the precise influence of price cuts on shoppers and the financial system will seemingly decide the path markets soak up Q1 and Q2.
