Bitcoin’s “four-year law” could also be breaking for the primary time. Regardless of report inflows into spot ETFs and swelling company treasuries, the market is not transferring in lockstep with the halving cycle.
- Has the cycle lastly snapped?
- ETF inflows: recent demand or reshuffling?
- Alternate flows: sign or noise?
- Do miners nonetheless transfer the market?
- From cycles to liquidity regimes
- Realized Worth and new bear-market flooring
- MVRV and the bounds of metrics
- Sovereign flows and custody danger
- Choices, ETFs, and U.S. dominance
- Closing ideas
As an alternative, liquidity shocks, sovereign wealth allocations, and derivatives development are rising as the brand new anchors of worth discovery. This shift raises a crucial query for 2026: can establishments nonetheless depend on cycle playbooks, or should they rewrite the principles solely?
Has the cycle lastly snapped?
With these forces now setting the tempo, the query shouldn’t be whether or not the previous cycle nonetheless issues however whether or not it has already been changed. BeInCrypto spoke with James Examine, Co-Founder and on-chain analyst at Checkonchain Analytics and former Lead On-Chain Analyst at Glassnode, to check this thesis.
For years, Bitcoin traders handled the four-year halving cycle as gospel. That rhythm now faces its hardest check. In September 2025, CoinShares tracked $1.9 billion in ETF inflows—practically half of it into Bitcoin—whereas Glassnode flagged $108,000–$114,000 as a make-or-break zone. On the similar time, CryptoQuant recorded alternate inflows collapsing to historic lows, whilst Bitcoin pushed into recent all-time highs.
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ETF inflows: recent demand or reshuffling?
September’s ETF inflows highlighted strong demand, however traders have to know whether or not that is genuinely new capital or just present holders rotating from automobiles like GBTC. That distinction impacts how a lot structural assist the rally has.
Supply: Checkonchain
“There is absolutely going to be some holders who are migrating from holding on-chain into the ETFs. This is definitely happening. However, it is not the majority… the demand has actually been incredible and massive. We’re talking about tens of billions of dollars, really serious capital coming on board. The difference is that we have a lot of sell side.”
James famous that ETFs have already absorbed round $60 billion in whole inflows. Market information reveals this determine is overshadowed by month-to-month realized profit-taking of $30–100 billion from long-term holders, underscoring why costs haven’t climbed as rapidly as ETF demand alone may recommend.
Alternate flows: sign or noise?
CryptoQuant reveals that alternate inflows reached report lows at Bitcoin’s 2025 highs. At face worth, this might imply structural shortage. Nonetheless, James cautioned in opposition to over-reliance on these metrics.
“You won’t see me actually use exchange data very often because I think it’s just not a highly useful tool. The exchanges have I think it’s like 3.4 million bitcoin. A lot of these data providers simply don’t have all the wallet addresses because it’s a really, really hard job to find them all.”
Evaluation confirms this limitation, noting that long-term holder provide—at the moment 15.68 million BTC, or about 78.5% of circulating provide, and all in revenue—is a extra dependable gauge of shortage than alternate balances.
Do miners nonetheless transfer the market?
For years, mining was shorthand for draw back danger. But with ETF and treasury flows now dominating, their affect could also be much more negligible than many assume.
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“For the Bitcoin network, that sell side I mentioned before, I’ve got some charts… you just got to keep zooming in to see it because it looks like the zero line. It’s so small compared to old hand selling, ETF flows. So I would say that the halving doesn’t matter. And it hasn’t mattered, I would say for a couple of cycles. That’s one of those narratives that I think is dead.”
The roughly 450 BTC issued every day by miners is negligible in contrast with the revived provide from long-term holders, which might attain 10,000–40,000 BTC per day in peak rallies. This imbalance illustrates why miner flows not outline market construction.
From cycles to liquidity regimes
Requested whether or not Bitcoin nonetheless respects its four-year cycle or has shifted right into a liquidity-driven regime, James pointed to structural pivots in adoption.
“There’s been two major pivot points in the world of Bitcoin. The first one was the 2017 all-time high… The end of 2022 or the start of 23, that is where Bitcoin became a much more mature asset. Nowadays, Bitcoin responds to the world, rather than the world respond to Bitcoin.”
Evaluation helps this view, noting that volatility compression and the rise of ETFs and derivatives have shifted Bitcoin right into a extra index-like position in world markets. It additionally burdened that liquidity circumstances, not halving cycles, now set the tempo.
Realized Worth and new bear-market flooring
Historically, the realized worth acted as a dependable cycle diagnostic. Constancy’s fashions recommend post-halving corrections happen 12–18 months after the occasion. James, nonetheless, argued that the metric is now outdated—and that traders ought to watch the place the marginal price bases cluster as an alternative.
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“Typically a bear market ends when the price comes down to the realized price. Now, I think the realized price is somewhere around 52,000. But I actually think that metric is outdated because it includes Satoshi and lost coins… I don’t think Bitcoin goes back down to 30K. If we would have a bear market right now, I think we would go down to something like 80,000. That to me is where bear market floors would start to form. 75–80K, something like that.”
Their information present a clustering of price bases round $74,000–$80,000—protecting ETFs, company treasuries, and precise market averages—indicating that this vary now anchors potential bear-market flooring.
MVRV and the bounds of metrics
In contrast, MVRV Z-Rating has not damaged, however its thresholds have drifted with market depth and instrument combine. James suggested flexibility.
“I think all the metrics are still reliable, but the past thresholds are not reliable. People need to think about the metrics as a source of information, not as an indicator that’s going to tell you the answer. It’s easy to spot a blow-off top when all metrics are through the roof. What’s really hard to spot is when the bull market just runs out of steam and rolls over.”
Their information reveals MVRV cooling close to +1σ after which plateauing, fairly than reaching historic extremes—reinforcing James’s view that context beats fastened cut-offs.
Sovereign flows and custody danger
As sovereign wealth funds and pensions contemplate publicity, focus danger has turn out to be a key concern. James acknowledged that Coinbase holds many of the Bitcoin, however argued that proof-of-work offsets systemic danger.
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“If there’s one area that’s probably the biggest concentration risk, it would be Coinbase, simply because they custody pretty much all of the Bitcoin from the ETFs. But because Bitcoin uses proof of work, it doesn’t actually matter where the coins are… There’s no threshold of risk that breaks the system. The market just sorts itself out.”
Information confirms that Coinbase serves as custodian for many US spot ETFs, illustrating the diploma of focus and why James frames it as a market fairly than a safety danger.
Choices, ETFs, and U.S. dominance
James pointed to derivatives because the decisive think about Vanguard’s potential entry into ETF and tokenized markets.
“The most important thing is actually got nothing to do with the ETFs themselves. It’s actually the options market being built on top of them… As of October 2024, IBIT started tearing ahead of all the others. It is now the only one seeing appreciable inflows. The US has like 90% dominance in terms of ETF holdings.”
Market evaluation reveals BlackRock’s IBIT capturing most of AUM share after launching choices in late 2024, with US ETFs commanding practically 90% of world flows—underscoring derivatives because the precise driver of market dynamics. IBIT dominance aligns with reviews of US ETFs shaping virtually all new inflows, reinforcing the nation’s outsized position.
Closing ideas
“Everybody is always looking for the perfect metric to predict the future. There is no such thing. The only thing you can control is your decisions. If it goes down to 75, make sure you have a plan for that. If it goes up to 150, make sure you have a plan for that as well.”
James argued that getting ready methods for draw back and upside eventualities is probably the most sensible strategy to navigate volatility by means of 2026 and past.
His evaluation means that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle could not outline its trajectory. ETF inflows and sovereign-scale capital have launched new structural drivers, whereas long-term holder habits stays the important thing constraint.
Metrics like Realized Worth and MVRV require reinterpretation, with $75,000–$80,000 rising because the doubtless ground in a contemporary bear market. For establishments, the main focus in 2026 ought to shift towards liquidity regimes, custody dynamics, and the derivatives markets now forming on high of ETFs.
