Bitcoin worth stays below strain, down round 1.2% over the previous 24 hours and buying and selling near $66,000 at press time. Whereas short-term rebounds proceed to look, the broader construction nonetheless seems weak.
Now, even main establishments are turning cautious on their Bitcoin worth predictions. New on-chain indicators and long-term holders counsel the draw back threat will not be completed but.
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Normal Chartered’s Warning Matches Weak ETF and Institutional Flows
Normal Chartered not too long ago reiterated that Bitcoin might nonetheless fall towards $50,000 earlier than any sustained restoration. The financial institution pointed to weakening ETF demand and fading institutional participation as key dangers. When this view is in contrast with present market knowledge, it traces up completely.
STANCHART CUTS BITCOIN TARGET, WARNS OF FURTHER DROPS
Normal Chartered slashed its end-2026 Bitcoin goal to $100,000 from $150,000, its second lower in three months, and warned costs might fall to $50,000 earlier than recovering.
The financial institution cited ETF outflows, a weaker macro… pic.twitter.com/xZQTfT5bNt
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 12, 2026
On the value chart, Bitcoin has damaged down from a bear flag construction. A bear flag kinds when costs consolidate after a pointy fall after which resume the downtrend. This sample means that promoting strain stays dominant, even when short-term rebounds seem.
On the identical time, institutional circulate indicators are weakening. Chaikin Cash Circulation, or CMF, which tracks whether or not giant capital is coming into or leaving the market, has dropped sharply. CMF now seems weaker than it did through the January–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin fell round 31%.
Historic BTC Flows: TradingView
This time, the decline is steeper. Bitcoin has already dropped practically 38% from its peak, and CMF has fallen sooner than in early 2025. This confirms that institutional shopping for will not be returning but. With out sustained inflows from giant buyers, rallies battle to carry.
It’s price noting that through the April-October 2025 section, when BTC peaked, there have been just a few cases when the CMF fell below the zero line, and that too marginally. However now, the CMF dip seems manner scarier.
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This is the reason Normal Chartered’s warning is sensible. The breakdown on the chart and weak ETF-linked flows are telling the identical story. However institutional weak point will not be the one concern.
On-Chain Income and Lengthy-Time period Holders Nonetheless Level to Extra Draw back
Past ETFs, on-chain knowledge reveals that investor confidence stays fragile.
One key indicator is Internet Unrealized Revenue and Loss, or NUPL. NUPL measures how a lot revenue or loss holders are sitting on by evaluating present costs with when cash had been final moved.
Throughout the April 2024 rebound, NUPL was close to 0.42. That confirmed minimal unrealized earnings and supported a restoration. In the present day, NUPL has dropped a lot decrease. It fell to round 0.11 in early February and is now close to 0.17. This implies a lot of the leftover earnings from the bull cycle have already been worn out. However this doesn’t affirm a backside if the larger image is considered.
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Historical past reveals NUPL can nonetheless fall additional. In March 2023, NUPL dropped to close 0.02 when Bitcoin traded round $20,000. That marked deep capitulation earlier than the following main rally started. In comparison with that interval, present NUPL ranges stay comparatively elevated. This means the market will not be absolutely washed out but.
Lengthy-term holder habits helps this view. Lengthy-term BTC holders are wallets which have held Bitcoin for a couple of yr. These buyers normally accumulate throughout main bottoms and assist stabilize costs.
Proper now, they’re nonetheless internet sellers. In early February 2025, long-term holders diminished holdings by greater than 170,000 BTC. On the peak of current promoting, in February 2026, outflows reached practically 245,000 BTC. It is a heavier distribution than through the January–April 2025 correction.
Again then, demand from long-term holders had already began recovering earlier than costs bounced. In the present day, that restoration has not appeared. In easy phrases, establishments are cautious, earnings are shrinking, and long-term holders aren’t stepping in but. This mix makes a robust rebound unlikely within the close to time period.
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Why the $53,000–$48,000 Zone Nonetheless Issues on the Bitcoin Worth Chart
With fundamentals and on-chain knowledge aligned to the draw back, the Bitcoin worth ranges now change into vital.
The present bear flag projection factors towards a broad assist zone between $53,200 and $48,300. This vary aligns with key Fibonacci retracement ranges.
The midpoint of this zone sits near $50,000, which stays a serious psychological degree. Spherical numbers typically entice sturdy shopping for and promoting exercise, making them pure magnets throughout corrections. This is the reason Normal Chartered’s $50,000 view suits the technical construction. It isn’t an arbitrary goal. It sits straight inside the primary assist band.
If promoting strain continues and ETF flows stay weak, Bitcoin might take a look at this area within the coming months. In a deeper risk-off state of affairs, draw back might even prolong towards $42,400, which matches longer-term breakdown projections and historic assist.
For this bearish Bitcoin worth prediction to decelerate, BTC would wish to reclaim and maintain above the $72,100 area with sturdy quantity and renewed institutional inflows. That will sign that demand has returned and that the bear flag has failed. To date, there is no such thing as a proof of that.
