Bitcoin is presently experiencing early levels of a bear market, based mostly on a number of on-chain and market indicators. This pattern is predicted to proceed all through 2026, with costs more likely to transfer decrease somewhat than attain new all-time highs.
In a dialog with BeInCrypto, Julio Moreno, Head of Analysis at CryptoQuant, attributed the weakening demand as the principle purpose for this outlook.
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On-Chain Knowledge Confirms Bear Market
Whereas many traders are nonetheless debating whether or not a broader crypto bear market lies forward, Moreno stated Bitcoin had already entered one as early as November 2025.
“Basically every on-chain metric or market metric confirms that we are in a bear market in the early stages,” he stated in a BeInCrypto podcast episode.
In line with him, that is solely the start. He expects costs to proceed trending downwards within the upcoming months.
“The question is how long it lasts or how low prices go, but from where we are starting, I wouldn’t expect new all-time highs,” Moreno added.
Moreno’s bearish outlook just isn’t pushed solely by value motion, however by underlying fundamentals that he believes sign continued weak point forward.
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Bitcoin Demand Engine Begins Breaking
Bitcoin has been experiencing a structural contraction in demand over the previous a number of months. To trace this, CryptoQuant has been following the movement of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Between 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin demand was supported by a number of sturdy, identifiable tailwinds. When US spot Bitcoin ETFs had been first launched, they triggered sustained institutional inflows and a pointy acceleration in demand.
Regulatory assist in america beneath President Donald Trump additional bolstered danger urge for food.
Nevertheless, this demand is now being dismantled.
“ETFs have become net sellers of Bitcoin since at least early November,” Moreno stated, including, “They were aggressively buying, then there was a slowdown, and now they are not buying, they are selling.”
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This lack of demand has additionally change into evident in different methods.
Pressured Promoting Threat Enters Focus
Final 12 months, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a surge in firms adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
With Technique (previously MicroStrategy) main the best way, companies resembling MetaPlanet, Twenty One Capital, and MARA Holdings adopted an identical accumulation playbook.
$BTC institutional demand is now at its lowest degree in 8 months.
DATs have stopped shopping for.
ETF inflows have gone down.
With no sturdy demand, each Bitcoin upward transfer will simply be a bull entice. pic.twitter.com/xoBJFq2sai
— Ted (@TedPillows) December 7, 2025
Nevertheless, this rush to purchase has pale.
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“Other than MicroStrategy, basically all the Bitcoin treasury companies have stopped buying. If prices continue declining, there is a higher risk that we will see some companies forced to sell their holdings,” Moreno advised BeInCrypto.
It’s exactly this compelled promoting danger which will function a possible accelerator of draw back volatility.
In line with Moreno, Bitcoin might attain a backside as little as $56,000.
Regardless of the draw back dangers, Moreno harassed that Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook will in the end rely on whether or not demand can recuperate.
“The moment demand stops contracting and starts to grow again, that’s when the market structure changes,” he stated.
Till that shift turns into seen on-chain, the most efficient strategy to the market is one in every of warning.
