Because the Center East broadly welcomes a ceasefire within the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, Iran finds itself at one in all its weakest moments since its 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Tehran has operated its self-described “Axis of Resistance”over a number of a long time, supporting militant teams and nations allied with it towards Israel and the USA. However as Israel bombed the Gaza Strip, it additionally turned its crosshairs towards high leaders overseas in militant teams like Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and even the highest echelon inside Iran’s army and nuclear program — killing many and disrupting their potential to combat again.
As President Donald Trump prepares for a Center East journey that possible will see him praised by Israel and Arab nations, Iran gained’t be on the desk because it nonetheless struggles to recuperate from June’s 12-day conflict.
How Tehran’s theocracy responds within the weeks and months forward, whether or not meaning lashing out or attempting to rebuild its hobbled financial system at house, can be essential.
“Undoubtedly this is a not a proud moment for Iran,” mentioned Ali Vaez, the Iran undertaking director on the Worldwide Disaster Group. “Its alliance system in the region is in ruins but it doesn’t mean that the ‘Axis of Resistance’ is no more.”
‘Like a bankrupt gambler’
Iranian state media has sought to explain the Gaza ceasefire as a victory for Hamas, regardless of the conflict destroying the Gaza Strip and killing over 67,000 Palestinians, in accordance with Gaza’s Well being Ministry, which doesn’t differentiate between civilians and combatants however says round half the useless are girls and youngsters.
Iran’s International Ministry welcomed “any decision … that guarantees halting the genocide of Palestinians.” Iranian International Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that on Saturday, telling state tv that Hamas determined to simply accept the deal and that Tehran has “always supported any plan, any action that led to the halt of crimes, genocide” by Israel towards the individuals of Gaza.
However maybe extra tellingly, an adviser to Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recommended the ceasefire would solely result in battle elsewhere within the area.
“The start of the ceasefire in Gaza may be the behind-the-scenes end of the ceasefire somewhere else!” Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Khamenei, wrote on X, referencing Hezbollah, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels and Iraq.
The concern of additional Israeli strikes, notably on Iran, stays acute within the public’s thoughts as a lot of Iranian air defenses possible had been destroyed by Israel in June. Khamenei has not resumed his typical routine of weekly speeches to audiences. With out rationalization, Iran prevented holding a significant army commemoration marking the top of the Iran-Iraq conflict in September, which usually sees high officers watch drones and missile launchers parade previous them.
Iran’s financial system additionally has suffered underneath worldwide sanctions and as international vitality costs fall.
“Iran has always focused on its interests, we do not have resources anymore, our economy has weakened,” mentioned Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leilaz. “Our support to Hamas was a reaction to U.S. to divert conflicts from our borders.”
Others are much less optimistic.
“Iran is like a bankrupt gambler after winning some small money in the first rounds,” mentioned Amir Kazemi, a college pupil in Tehran. “When Hamas attacked Israel, Iran was happy about it. But now, after the ceasefire, Iran finds nothing in its pocket.”
Mideast seems to be far totally different
Within the rapid years after Iran’s revolution, its theocratic authorities sought to export its Shiite revolutionary ideology extra extensively within the Center East. That morphed following its devastating Eighties conflict with Iraq into extra of an effort to offer a stage of deterrence as Arab nations round it bought subtle American bombs, warplanes and tanks that Tehran couldn’t entry as a result of sanctions.
The U.S. army’s presence throughout the Persian Gulf additionally expanded following the 1991 Gulf Conflict, with Arab nations granting basing rights to American forces to Tehran’s fixed anger.
The height of the “Axis of Resistance” got here within the chaotic years after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and Yemen’s subsequent collapse right into a civil conflict. Then, it may rely on Hezbollah, Syrian autocrat Bashar Assad, the Houthis, Iraqi militant teams and even Hamas — a Sunni militant group.
In the present day, the Mideast seems to be far totally different.
In Syria, rebels overthrew Assad final 12 months, Israeli strikes killed Hezbollah and Hamas’ high leaders, whereas Iraqi militant teams pale into the background. Yemen’s Houthis, whereas nonetheless able to launching assaults on Israel and industrial delivery within the Purple Sea hall, discover themselves now focused by more and more exact Israeli strikes.
And the 12-day conflict in June left Iran possible now not enriching uranium for its nuclear program, which the West lengthy has fearful may very well be weaponized.
‘Collapsing regional clout’
Iran, in the meantime, has but to obtain any main assist from both China or Russia, regardless of offering Beijing with possible discounted oil and Moscow with the drones it makes use of in its conflict on Ukraine. Tehran has additionally shied away from confronting girls who’re more and more abandoning the hijab, or headband, as an alternative executing prisoners it already holds at a charge unseen in a long time.
“The ceasefire is reflective of Tehran’s collapsing regional clout following the unraveling of its long-powerful ‘Axis of Resistance’ since 2024,” mentioned Ali Fathollah-Nejad, the director of the Berlin-based Heart for Center East and International Order. “The ceasefire will free Israeli military capacities that would now be used against Iranian interests — whether in Lebanon against Hezbollah or directly against Iran.”
“Time is not on Iran’s side but their problem is no one is really giving them an exit ramp,” Vaez mentioned. However whether or not Tehran would take the ramp additionally stays in query as its leaders nonetheless debate what flip to now take.
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