BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects most layer-1 blockchain networks to fade, arguing that solely Ethereum and Solana have the institutional use instances wanted to outlive long run.
In a November 28 look on the Altcoin Day by day podcast, Hayes mentioned the rising listing of different base-layer blockchains has not modified his view. He nonetheless expects the market to consolidate round a small group of dominant networks.
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Why Hayes Thinks Ethereum and Solana Will Endure
Hayes argued that Ethereum’s function in institutional adoption is central to its sturdiness.
In keeping with him, Ethereum might be utilized by these traders to realize their Web3 objectives, whereas he expects a “basket of main public L1s” to stay related within the years forward.
“Ethereum, this whole ecosystem, is going to be used by TradFi to achieve whatever they want to do within Web3…Ethereum is obviously winning and going to keep winning,” he mentioned.
He pointed to Solana as the one different chain with related endurance. Hayes cited the community’s latest rebound, although he mentioned its subsequent development driver is unclear.
In keeping with him, the meme coin frenzy on Solana has petered out, and the community would want to seek out “new tricks” to spice up its development.
“Solana needs a new trick. I don’t know what that new trick is, but again, it’s the number two largest L1. I think they’ll find something,” Hayes famous.
Regardless of that optimism, Hayes mentioned Solana is unlikely to outperform Ethereum over time. He added that “pretty much every other L1 besides Ethereum or Solana is a zero.”
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Ethereum and Solana stay the 2 largest layer-1 networks by market capitalization and have attracted institutional consideration from companies reminiscent of Franklin Templeton.
Bearish View on Monad
In the meantime, Hayes was much more skeptical about Monad, which launched its MON token and public blockchain this week.
The undertaking markets itself as a high-performance layer-1 with parallelized execution suitable with the Ethereum Digital Machine, prompting some trade contributors to name it the “next ETH killer.”
Hayes rejected that characterization by declaring that “pretty much every other L1 besides Ethereum or Solana is a zero and they’re not going to do very well.”
He described Monad as “another bear chain” and predicted the token “is going to go down 99% because it’s another high-FTV, low-float piece of VC lint.”
Although he acknowledged shopping for some MON tokens, he mentioned its early worth strikes don’t translate into sturdy worth.
“Every coin gets their first pump, and people want to believe in the new L1 because everybody wants to invest in the new Ethereum like they would have in 2014 when everyone missed it, me included. But again, that doesn’t mean that it’s going to actually have any real use case,” Hayes emphasised.
Contemplating this, Hayes mentioned his broader market thesis nonetheless facilities on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, however famous that ZCash and Ethena may spherical out his top-five listing.
