Apple is about to launch a 'game-changer' iPhone

Apple (AAPL) is ramping up for an eventful spring. It is the sort of “quietly huge” setup that AAPL inventory buyers love.

It plans a number of launches. One massive narrative will dominate. And the scoreboard could not be clearer.

For me, the narrative unfolds with the newest Apple earnings. CEO Tim Cook dinner was dealing in superlatives when he described the December quarter as a “remarkable, record-breaking quarter.”

Apple reported $143.8 billion in income and stated its put in base topped 2.5 billion energetic units. That is the kind of scale that makes even “boring” refreshes grow to be essential occasions within the ecosystem.

However the scoreboard is beginning to shift. Within the earnings name, Cook dinner stated Apple continues to see “market pricing for memory increasing significantly.”

The feedback counsel that Apple is issuing a reminder: The subsequent few quarters could also be much less about demand and extra about defending its margins.

I’m certain you have seen examples inside your loved ones of those that need to cling to their previous, completely useful iPhones. The most typical cause, a minimum of in my expertise, is that the brand new ones are too costly.

Now the biggest-name customers related to the iPhone are Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook dinner, and Mark Zuckerberg. I am assured their wallets won’t get lighter as a result of latest model of the iPhone.

Nevertheless, Apple goals to prioritize the wants of the common consumer this time. It is why within the subsequent wave, it desires to make issues extra reasonably priced, specializing in margin development to widen the funnel.

Apple is loading up releases.

Photograph by ANGELA WEISS on Getty Photographs

iPhone 17e: Apple’s “more for $599” pitch

The launch of iPhone 17e is imminent, in accordance with Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman.

It would carry 4 upgrades that matter in the actual world. A19, MagSafe (as described by The Verge), Apple’s newer C1X modem, and its N1 connectivity chip are the upgrades included in what’s launching “imminently.”

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I guess you are pondering, “Hey, I know a person who skipped the cheaper iPhone because it felt like a ‘yes, but…’ device.” Nevertheless, MagSafe is seeking to shake issues up with automotive mounts, wallets, charging stands, and the entire accent ecosystem.

And Apple is reportedly retaining the worth at $599, concentrating on rising markets and enterprise patrons. These patrons, in precept, care about reliability and complete value of possession greater than standing.

The Apple iPad refresh is boring, and that’s sort of the purpose

The spring iPad story is easy and fundamental. The main target is on the identical shells, with quicker chips.

• The entry iPad is anticipated to leap to A18, in accordance with Mac Rumors. That may convey Apple Intelligence assist to Apple’s least expensive pill for the primary time.
• The iPad Air will transfer to M4.

Should you’re the particular person everybody contacts when an older iPad begins to gradual, that is the kind of replace that issues.

A base mannequin that may function Apple’s AI options cleanly provides Apple an easy pitch for colleges, households, and firms that buy in bulk.

The true catalyst: iOS 26.4 and the “Siri credibility” second

{Hardware} is liable for promoting items, however software program sells belief.

Gurman’s reporting says Apple will launch the primary developer beta of iOS 26.4 the week of Feb. 23.

Siri can even be accessible once more after a prolonged wait. Apple Intelligence components are more likely to pop up there.

Wall Road “upgrades” are rolling in, however the margin story is the watch merchandise

The latest upgrades are usually not eye-popping. I hate it after we converse in hyperbolic phrases about any inventory. That’s what I like concerning the latest upgrades.

• Maxim upgraded Apple to purchase from maintain (PT $300).
• KGI Securities upgraded Apple to outperform from impartial (PT $306).
• Individually, J.P. Morgan reiterated its chubby score and lifted its goal to $315.

The short-term push-pull trajectory is clear, although. Demand, all issues thought-about, stays very sturdy. Nevertheless, the pricing pressure of elements, notably reminiscence, is turning into extra pronounced.

What a “normal strong” Apple March quarter may appear like

Apple will not be conventional with regards to income steering.

Listed here are two easy methods buyers body the following quarter.

• Again-of-the-envelope vary (year-over-year development off final yr’s March quarter): Apple did $95.4B in fiscal Q2 2025 income. If Apple prints +10% to +12% YoY (roughly consistent with the place many sell-side expectations cluster), that suggests about $104.9 billion to $106.8 billion this March quarter.
• “Street” snapshot (consensus-style framing): FactSet estimates cited by Investor’s Enterprise Day by day peg the March quarter round $104.9 billion in income and $1.84 EPS.

Nevertheless, there’s a margin issue as effectively. Apple is guiding towards a gross margin for the continuing quarter at 48% to 49%; Cook dinner is flagging reminiscence bills as a rising headwind past Q2.

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