US President Donald Trump’s pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao marks the second main act of clemency towards a outstanding crypto determine since he took workplace. And it has been lower than a 12 months.
This newest improvement has sparked hypothesis over whether or not Sam Bankman-Fried could possibly be subsequent.
Applause, Alarm, and a Surge in Hypothesis
Sponsored
Sponsored
What’s clear is that Trump’s newest pardon has sparked hypothesis about who is likely to be subsequent to profit.
Voters on common prediction market Polymarket are already inserting their bets that FTX alternate founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), who was sentenced to 25 years in jail for a number of counts of fraud, could also be subsequent in line.
Speculators Increase SBF’s Launch Probabilities in Newest Ballot. Supply: Polymarket.
Previously 5 hours, a number of polls on prediction markets noticed the percentages of SBF being launched from custody earlier than the top of this 12 months surge from 4% to 16%.
Whereas the percentages could seem low, the profiles of the crypto figures Trump has pardoned to this point might make clemency for SBF seem extra believable.
A Story of Two Pardons
Trump’s pardon of CZ could seem much less stunning when considered alongside his earlier choice to pardon Silk Highway creator Ross Ulbricht simply two days after taking workplace, particularly contemplating the way more severe prices Ulbricht confronted.
By means of Silk Highway, Ulbricht facilitated nameless transactions of illicit items utilizing Bitcoin.
In 2015, he was convicted on a number of counts, together with narcotics distribution, cash laundering, pc hacking, and working a unbroken felony enterprise. He was finally sentenced to 2 life phrases plus 40 years with out the potential for parole.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Throughout Ulbricht’s sentencing, the choose explicitly justified a life time period, citing the dimensions of the drug commerce that was born out of Silk Highway, together with the oblique deaths that it prompted.
In contrast, CZ pleaded responsible to a single depend of violating the Financial institution Secrecy Act and different regulatory non-compliance. In April 2024, a court docket sentenced him to 4 months in federal jail.
Although severe, the hurt attributable to CZ’s crimes concerned regulatory failures moderately than direct theft of buyer funds.
Contemplating the outcomes of each trials, the dimensions of SBF’s crimes falls someplace within the center.
SBF’s Crimes and the Politics of Clemency
A jury sentenced Sam Bankman-Fried in March 2024 on a number of prices, together with wire fraud, cash laundering, and conspiracy. The scope of his wrongdoing was transcendental.
FTX misused a whole bunch of tens of millions, if not billions, in buyer funds, leading to widespread investor and lender losses and the collapse of one of many crypto trade’s largest exchanges.
To a sure diploma, SBF’s sentencing was thought of lenient. Prosecutors initially sought a 40 to 50-year jail sentence for his conviction.
Sponsored
Sponsored
Nonetheless, whereas the monetary harm attributable to SBF was immense, many courts have regarded his crimes as much less extreme than Ulbricht’s.
The collapse of FTX had huge financial repercussions, however Silk Highway’s actions prolonged into violent crimes, organized trafficking, and drug distribution, posing a far higher menace to public security.
With Ulbricht’s pardon setting a precedent, SBF’s probabilities of receiving clemency from Trump seem stronger. Mixed with the President’s effort to place himself as a crypto ally, the transfer matches inside a broader political technique.
In the meantime, SBF’s dad and mom have been actively lobbying for his launch on Capitol Hill, additional boosting his prospects.
Nonetheless, important obstacles nonetheless stand in the best way of a possible pardon.
The Case In opposition to Forgiveness
SBF’s crimes have been among the many most consequential monetary scandals in trendy historical past.
Sponsored
Sponsored
The sheer scale of his actions, spanning world jurisdictions and involving numerous victims, makes his case way more extreme than the violations seen in different pardoned crypto executives like CZ.
From a public notion standpoint, extending clemency to somebody convicted of such crimes could be a tricky promote.
Not like different figures who struck plea offers, SBF went to trial and was convicted on all counts. His refusal to simply accept duty and courtroom demeanor, broadly perceived as missing regret, have left a long-lasting impression on the judiciary and the general public.
I will likely be really shocked if SBF will get a pardon. SBF and CZ should not comparable in any respect. SBF was a Democratic mega-donor earlier than FTX collapsed and he went to jail bankrupt. His title is half punch line half curse phrase in DC. Not a single severe individual needs this.
Don’t pardon SBF https://t.co/RC1oenk3Jk
— Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) October 23, 2025
In distinction, CZ and different pardoned executives pleaded responsible, cooperated with authorities, and portrayed themselves as reformers—a picture SBF has struggled to domesticate.
Including to the complexity, SBF’s political historical past might work in opposition to him. Earlier than his downfall, he and his community have been important donors to political teams aligned with the Democratic Social gathering.
Given Trump’s pragmatic method to loyalty and optics, he could also be much less inclined to indicate leniency towards SBF. As BeInCrypto has beforehand reported, public notion has typically influenced Trump’s selections on pardons.
This backdrop might make it unlikely he would danger political capital on somebody considered as a part of the opposition.
The President’s earlier gestures towards the crypto trade point out openness to the thought. Nonetheless, in terms of SBF, the prices might simply outweigh the potential advantages.
