Apple (AAPL) shares have seen a turbulent 2025.
Whereas shares are up 14.5% yr thus far, the inventory bottomed out at about $170 per share in early April. Since then, a number of catalysts have pushed Apple’s inventory value nearer to $260 per share.
The corporate’s most vital catalyst emerged September 9, when Apple debuted the most recent variations of its iPhone Professional and iPhone Professional Max and its new ultrathin iPhone Air.
iPhone 17 collection specs:
- All-new titanium casing for sturdiness
- A19 Bionic chip powering new AI options
- Greatest-ever battery life on the Professional Max
- Enhanced digicam sensors and imaging instruments
- Slimmest iPhone design but on choose fashions
Regardless of this thrilling new tech, analysts at Jefferies have had a principally muted response, and on Friday the agency lowered its expectations for Apple shares.
Jefferies is worried about demand for Apple iPhone 17.
Picture supply: Aditya/NurPhoto by way of Getty Photos
Jefferies downgrades Apple to underperform
A refreshed iPhone has historically been sufficient to spice up Apple’s fortunes, however analysts at Jefferies see “excessive expectations” for a foldable model of the iPhone sooner or later.
The agency thinks iPhone followers might skip this alternative cycle to attend for a foldable iPhone that might be utterly new to the market.
Associated: Apple report reveals a worrying iPhone 17 development
Jefferies downgraded Apple to underperform from maintain, saying, “Better demand for (iPhone) 17 is likely driven by no price hike in Pro/Pro Max and effective price cut for the base, not due to new form factor or tech innovations.”
Jefferies analysts imagine “more positive sales momentum has inflated expectations on the replacement cycle and prospects of the (iPhone) 18 Fold.”
Apple followers have anticipated a foldable iPhone for years, particularly as hated rival Samsung has supplied its foldable cellular phone for years.
As soon as Apple debuts a foldable telephone, Jefferies is assured the corporate will make a top-of-the-line model. However there are nonetheless points.
“We don’t doubt AAPL will have the ability to take advantage of stunning foldable telephone out there, however the query is the whole addressable market of a US$2K telephone,” Jefferies’ note says.
Related: T-Mobile CEO sends major Apple iPhone message
The firm notes that although the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 7 is “practically crease-free, and its thickness (unfolded) at 4.2mm is even thinner than the iPhone 17 Air at 5.5mm,” that phone only sells 3 million units annually.
Based on that, Apple’s current valuation is driven by an “overly bullish iPhone outlook.”
The firm says that even with a $100 price hike for the iPhone 18, its own discounted cash flow model “remains little changed at [approximately] US$205, or US$800bn below the current market cap.”
Jefferies has been skeptical of Apple iPhone demand
Earlier this week, Jefferies published a note saying that the initial demand for the iPhone 17, just a month after its debut, appeared stronger than last year’s iPhone 16 launch, but it is already fading.
As a critical gauge, the brokerage points to delivery lead times: the gap between when customers place orders and when they receive their phones. Jefferies tracked six key markets and noticed a clear softening, with the U.S. flagged as the weakest across all four iPhone 17 variants.
However, the firm maintained the company’s rating steady at hold with a $205.82 price target, which represents a 24% downside from the stock’s opening price on Oct. 3.
Associated: Apple raised the value of the iPhone 17 Professional for this fascinating purpose
