Activist investor Invoice Ackman has his sights set on Common Music Group, and he’s launched a posh $64 billion proposal for the label behind Dangerous Bunny, Taylor Swift, Paul McCartney and an extended checklist of different superstars.
To get his palms on the prize although, Ackman will first need to deal with one other large character: Vincent Bolloré, the 74-year-old secretive French billionaire who controls 28% of Common by way of a posh net of holdings.
Often known as the “French Murdoch” for constructing a $14 billion, right-leaning media empire stacked with relations and loyalists, Bolloré is a shrewd businessperson whose ascent to the highest tiers of energy is an object of fascination and awe in France and all through Europe.
“Nine times out of 10 when people are speculating about what Bolloré will do, they get it wrong,” stated Nicolas Marmurek, a London-based analyst who makes a speciality of M&A.
Bolloré’s stake in Common Music Group (UMG), which successfully offers him veto energy over any deal, units the stage for a probably epic showdown between two of essentially the most highly effective figures within the enterprise world. Ackman is known for combating his manner by way of offers, launching aggressive campaigns that put money into firms and power administration to undertake measures like reducing prices or spinning off property. Previous targets have included Wendy’s and Canadian Pacific Railway however he’s softened his method lately, and he complimented UMG’s administration when he launched his bid to merge and relist the corporate within the U.S.
Adrian Edwards/GC Photos
In bidding to revamp UMG, which owns 30% of the world’s recorded music, Ackman is testing a brand new playbook. Fairly than influencing affairs by way of stress techniques Pershing intends to steer a structural recapitalization, shopping for extra shares, placing allies on the board, and re-listing the corporate in New York whereas current administration operates the corporate. It’s all a part of Ackman’s broader imaginative and prescient of remodeling Pershing right into a diversified holding firm within the picture of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.
That makes profitable over the unpredictable Bolloré mission important for Ackman.
“Without Bolloré, we don’t have a transaction,” Ackman advised traders on April 7 when he unveiled the small print of his proposal. Ackman stated his “first phone call” the day earlier than asserting the deal, was to Bolloré Group, and he reportedly spoke with present chairman and CEO Cyrille Bolloré, Vincent Bolloré’s 40-year-old son. Ackman stated he gave the youthful Bolloré a “high-level summary of the transaction.”
“And I guess the words I got back were, ‘These are music to my ears,’” Ackman stated. “They are, I would say, intrigued,” he added later. “But of course, the devil’s in the details.”
A fancy deal and an extended tail
Ackman’s proposed deal is structured as a merger between UMG and a Pershing Sq. special-purpose acquisition rights firm. Pershing Sq.’s money dedication is €2.5 billion euro, and a mix of recent debt, money on UMG’s steadiness sheet, and asset gross sales might be used to finance the remainder of the transaction. However the deal is extremely complicated and will find yourself being consummated in a number of other ways relying on whether or not UMG shareholders elect to swap their shares for money or inventory within the new entity, or a mix.
If shareholders approve the deal, the brand new U.S.-listed entity would have a $64 billion fairness worth as soon as the funds are accomplished, plus $5.8 billion in new debt on UMG’s steadiness sheet. Artists would additionally get what Ackman described as “a nice €750 million euro check” which might come from the sale of UMG’s stake in Spotify.
Yuriko Nakao/Bloomberg by way of Getty Photos
Common’s board confirmed the proposal the identical day as Ackman’s unveiling, describing it as “unsolicited and non-binding.” The UMG board stated administrators would assessment it “in accordance with fiduciary duties” and stated it had “complete confidence in UMG’s strategy and the leadership of Sir Lucian Grainge.” Grainge has been CEO since 2011, when he led UMG’s acquisition of EMI’s recorded-music catalogue.
Ackman additionally pitched refreshing UMG’s board with two new members and naming Hollywood big and Artistic Artists Company co-founder Michael Ovitz as chair. Ovitz has been pals with UMG CEO Grainge for 4 many years, Ackman has advised traders (Ackman additionally famous that he’s been pals with Ovitz for 31 years).
The enchantment of UMG for Ackman is within the shift the music trade has undergone all through a lot of the previous decade. As streaming has reworked the best way shoppers take heed to music, the worth of deep catalogs like Common’s—which incorporates Billie Eilish, Drake, and Kendrick Lamar—has elevated and altered the economics.
“The tail has become fatter and fatter and fatter,” stated Tom Toumazis, MBE and world senior advisor at AlixPartners, describing music that’s greater than 10 years previous however continues to generate income. “A teenager running up that hill with Kate Bush” as we speak is discovering music that didn’t exist a technology in the past, he stated, referring to the large resurgence of Bush’s 1985 tune “Running up That Hill” following its use within the Netflix present Stranger Issues. Each main label has a Kate Bush in its catalogue, he stated. The consequence, stated Toumazis, “is an intrinsic reset over a decade that says, this music just keeps on going, and keeps on going, and keeps on going.”
The pattern caught Ackman’s eye just a few years in the past. Pershing beforehand acquired a ten% stake in UMG in 2021 across the time the label was spun out of French conglomerate Vivendi SE. However Pershing progressively pared its place to 4.5%, and final yr, Ackman left UMG’s board as his efforts to persuade UMG to checklist its shares in New York hit a wall. The present deal would see that stake develop to 11.7%.
Due to its Dutch itemizing, UMG has by no means had the devoted analyst protection that U.S.-listed rival Warner Music Group has and the inventory is out-of-bounds for traders with mandates that don’t permit investments in non-U.S. inventory, Ackman stated in his pitch to UMG. The Dutch itemizing additionally retains UMG exterior of main U.S. index funds that purchase S&P 500 shares. He stated relisting the corporate on the New York Inventory Change would deal with a few of these points.
The brand new construction would generate about $3 billion in incremental money for Bolloré Group, and the household would retain its UMG stake. In response to Ackman, the deal additionally addresses what he stated is a part of the rationale behind UMG’s latest 39% inventory drop from its peak two years in the past: The market was unsure about what the Bolloré household was planning on doing with their stake.
“A very important catalyst was Cyrille Bolloré, the representative from Bolloré Group, surprised the market by resigning from the Universal board,” Ackman advised traders in a name this month. “That sort of put in question their intentions with respect to whether they were going to hold their stake.”
The ‘little prince of cash flow’
Fred TANNEAU / AFP) (Photograph by FRED TANNEAU/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Whereas a lot of Ackman’s proposal makes loads of sense—itemizing UMG within the U.S., getting passive funding from index fund holders, opening the inventory as much as traders who can solely put money into U.S.-listed entities, nobody can predict how Vincent Bolloré will reply, stated Marmurek, the M&A analyst. Bolloré is among the savviest and most secretive traders in France, and making an attempt to gauge how he’ll react is pure hypothesis, Marmurek stated.
“He’s building a legacy and built a crazy amount of wealth over the space of one generation—he wants that wealth protected,” he stated. “Trying to second guess Bolloré is very dangerous.”
Bolloré earned his popularity as an operator after he took over an almost-bankrupt paper mill within the north of France in 1981 at age 29 and turned it right into a diversified industrial group together with logistics, batteries, ports, and African delivery. The cornerstone of his fashion as a company raider is to take a small stake in an undervalued enterprise after which grind his strategy to having an increasing number of management.
In response to Bolloré SE’s 2025 monetary filings, the household’s management runs by way of a cascade of holding firms with varied possession ranges. On the high is Compagnie de l’Odet, the place the Bolloré household holds 93% of the shares and Vicent Bolloré serves as CEO and chairman. In flip, Compagnie de l’Odet owns 71.6% of Bolloré SE, which holds stakes in Vivendi SE, Louis Hachette, Canal+, Havas N.V., and UMG. By way of Bolloré SE, the household holds about 18.4% of UMG straight and Vivendi, by which Bolloré is the biggest shareholder with a 29.3% stake, owns an additional 9.9% of UMG. Mixed, their 28% management is giant sufficient that Vincent Bolloré could make or break Ackman’s deal.
And given Bollore’s observe report, many observers anticipate him to drive a tough cut price.
“I struggle to see why Bolloré would jump at the offer without getting something else from Bill Ackman himself,” stated Marmurek. “In my view, Bolloré will want something more. I’m not saying the deal is not going to happen, but it’s a very uncertain deal at this point.”
What does Vincent need?
Negotiations may focus on one explicit side of the complicated deal that enables sure shareholders to obtain an all cash-payment at a decrease valuation.
In response to Le Monde, the deal requires Pershing Sq. to spend about €2.5 billion euro on the €9 billion euro money portion of the deal, however there’s an all-cash route particularly with Bolloré in thoughts that features as much as €7.5 billion euro at €22 euro per UMG share. Meaning Bolloré must settle for a reduction in change for liquidity, which is a lever he would possibly like to drag, analysts stated.
A possible counteroffer by UMG and its shareholders, together with Bolloré, may embody a bigger money part, a analysis observe from Paris-based monetary companies agency Oddo Bhf states. “A consortium could form and propose a higher cash component (50%?) and an equivalent structure with a listing in the U.S.,” wrote analyst Jérôme Bodin.
At this level, nevertheless, “the market considers it unlikely that the current offer will go through and that Bolloré will accept it,” Bodin’s observe states. He described the deal as a “massive share buyback financed by UMG’s balance sheet, combined with a relocation of the primary listing to the U.S.”
To get the deal over the end line, Ackman might want to draw upon the precise mixture of attraction, persuasion, and resolve—a job that will require exercising new muscle mass for the 59-year-old hedge fund supervisor who has made headlines for his brash posts on X, the place has 2.1 million followers, and for his adventures on the tennis courtroom (he famously competed in 2025 professional match, to combined opinions).
The massive query is whether or not Bolloré, who has spent his profession constructing an empire, is able to relinquish a few of his management over a prized asset—and if Ackman’s entreaties persuade him that it’s time to money out or just persuade Bolloré to pursue Ackman’s imaginative and prescient for UMG himself.
Desmond Kingsford, whose Highwood Worth Companions owns shares in Bolloré and Compagnie de L’Ode, questioned why Bolloré would help Ackman’s proposal “when he could push management to do everything Ackman proposes and not dilute any control or ownership?”
