Somebody constructed a money-losing Polymarket bot that solely spends cash on “No” trades, i.e. bets that occasions received’t happen.
It’s a little-known proven fact that roughly three-quarters of all Polymarket bets resolve to a No final result.
Artist and former Apple researcher Sterling Crispin turned that statistic right into a buying and selling bot and open-sourced its code. He printed the bot, dubbed Nothing Ever Occurs, on April 12, warning his followers to look at the journey, however to not anticipate earnings.
The announcement went viral.
“Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No?” Crispin wrote. “Stop over thinking it. Nothing Ever Happens.”
That quantity is fairly shut. Polymarket’s personal accuracy web page put the decision break up at 73.3% No and 26.7% Sure throughout all resolved markets. In different phrases, the thesis does come straight from the platform, in a approach.
Possibilities don’t assure earnings
Nonetheless, realizing that three-quarters of outcomes resolve to No doesn’t essentially produce a worthwhile technique by itself.
Polymarket occasion contracts open for buying and selling with built-in Sure and No contract costs, adjusted for different odds of an idiosyncratic occasion occurring.
Think about a No opening for buying and selling at $0.75, for instance, which return $1 on a win. That 2,500 foundation level revenue barely covers the 26.7% of the time the guess is more likely to lose completely.
Crispin seems to grasp this. After the unique publish went viral, he acknowledged “this has to buy below $0.73 long term, the bot has a configurable ceiling set at $0.65 and checks for new markets buying closer to $0.50.”
A ceiling of $0.65 means the bot solely buys when No is priced on Polymarket at or under 65%. It hunts for markets the place the gang hasn’t but priced within the base charge chance of a No decision.
The GitHub repository carries a disclaimer in daring italic: For leisure solely, use at your personal danger.
One more bot shedding cash on Polymarket
On-chain evaluation of two.5 million wallets by researcher Andrey Sergeenkov discovered that 84.1% of wallets which have traded on Polymarket have misplaced cash. Solely 0.033% have earned greater than $100,000.
The best doable technique — to guess on No and stroll away — outperforms many of the platform’s customers.
Polymarket has leaned into the premise for media consideration. Extremely, the platform hosts a “Nothing Ever Happens” collection of parlay markets.
These parlays bundle unlikely occasions (China invades Taiwan,bitcoin hits $1 million, Trump acquires Greenland) and let merchants guess that none of them happen.
A 2026 annual version carries $489,000 in quantity with “Nothing” priced at 56%.
Unsurprisingly, the parlays haven’t paid off. The Jerome Powell Version resolved to “No,” that means one thing did occur. So did the US Strike Version, after US army motion met one in all its set off circumstances.
Crispin isn’t a typical crypto dealer. He describes himself as a conceptual artist and software program engineer and beforehand spent years at Apple contributing to neurotechnology patents for the Imaginative and prescient Professional headset.
