Picture supply: BT Group plc
Since April 2021, shares in BT Group (LSE:BT.A) have risen 38% in comparison with a acquire of 55% for the FTSE 100. It means a £10,000 funding 5 years in the past would now be value £13,800. A Footsie tracker fund would have delivered £1,700 extra.
However may issues change on 21 Could, when the telecoms group’s as a result of report its outcomes for the yr ended 31 March (FY26)? Let’s take a more in-depth look.
What’s happening?
BT strikes me as a enterprise that’s going nowhere. A overview of its previous and a have a look at its anticipated efficiency means that it’s in a little bit of a rut.
For instance, FY25 income fell 2.2% to £20.4bn in comparison with the earlier yr. Wanting forward, analysts are forecasting a drop after which little change — £19.7bn (FY26), £19.3bn (FY27), and £19.4bn (FY28).
It’s an analogous story relating to EBITDA (earnings earlier than curiosity, tax, depreciation, and amortisation), the group’s most popular measure of profitability. By FY28, it’s anticipated to be solely £108m larger than it was in FY25. Adjusted earnings per share is forecast to be a meagre 2.1% extra.
In some respects, this isn’t stunning. Up till its privatisation in 1984, BT was a state-owned monopoly accountable for the UK’s phone community. At present, it has 1000’s extra shareholders nevertheless it nonetheless owns all of the wires, exchanges, and trunk strains that others need to pay to make use of.
Its steady earnings are typical of a utility firm having fun with a pure monopoly over the infrastructure that it constructed. Nonetheless, buyers count on listed companies to develop quicker than BT’s completed lately.
This lack of momentum most likely explains why analysts’ consensus is that the group’s shares are at present (6 April) pretty valued.
A mountain of debt
One other problem is the group’s borrowings. At 30 September 2025, its web debt was £20.9bn, which is simply £100m under its present market-cap. Once more, this isn’t fully surprising. Telecoms infrastructure is pricey.
For a few years, BT’s Openreach division – which contributes slightly below half of the group’s earnings — has been investing closely in rolling out the UK’s full-fibre community. At the moment obtainable to round 25m properties, it expects to have reached 30m by the tip of the last decade.
However with the tempo of this funding slowing, some analysts predict the group to have reached ‘peak CAPEX’ in FY26. If the group confirms this when it updates buyers in Could, this might give its share value a little bit of a lift.
That’s as a result of an easing of capital expenditure ought to present more money to pay down a few of its borrowings. Certainly, analysts predict free money circulation of £2.4bn in FY28, in comparison with £1.5bn reported in FY26. Importantly, they’re forecasting a £1.9bn discount in web debt. Curiosity prices also needs to fall.
My verdict
To me, BT looks like an organization that ought to be doing a lot better. Previous to Vodafone’s merger of its UK operations with Three, BT had the nation’s largest cellular community, each by way of protection and buyer numbers. And it’s part-way via an enormous £3bn cost-cutting programme supposed to enhance its backside line. Its dividend’s fairly good too. The inventory’s at present yielding an above-average 3.8%.
Nonetheless, its lack of momentum makes me consider there are higher alternatives to contemplate elsewhere.
