The final time an vitality disaster pushed Southeast Asia to contemplate nuclear vitality, it led to a $2.2 billion plant within the Philippines that by no means received switched on.
Half a century later, a brand new disaster is urgent the area to begin excited about nuclear once more. World oil and fuel costs have surged since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most crucial vitality chokepoint. Southeast Asia, comprised primarily of web vitality importers, has been hit particularly laborious by rising vitality costs, accelerating plans to drive down vitality utilization.
On March 23, Vietnam and Russia signed a deal to construct a nuclear energy plant in Vietnam’s Ninh Thuan province. The plant, set to return on-line in a decade, will probably be Southeast Asia’s first trendy nuclear energy plant. Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines have additionally signaled their intention to construct nuclear capability.
“Previously, the clean energy transition in the region was mainly driven by economic considerations—particularly the growing expectations from companies for access to low-carbon electricity,” Tan-Soo Jie Sheng, a professor on the Lee Kuan Yew Faculty of Public Coverage within the Nationwide College of Singapore (NUS), tells Fortune. “However, geopolitical shocks like the Iran war bring the energy security dimension back into sharper focus.”
Southeast Asia’s earlier try and go nuclear
The area’s first try at nuclear energy, the Bataan Nuclear Energy Plant, was constructed within the Philippines in 1976. Commissioned by President Ferdinand Marcos within the wake of the 1973 oil shock, the plant was accomplished in 1984 at a value of roughly $2.2 billion. However the plant was by no means used, because of accusations of presidency corruption and waning public assist for nuclear vitality following the Chernobyl catastrophe in 1986.
“Marcos’ successor said that the plant was corruption-tainted—which is true—and claimed it was substandard and too dangerous to operate,” says Julius Cesar I. Trajano, a analysis fellow at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological College.
Lately, rising vitality demand, spurred partly by an explosion of AI knowledge facilities, is pushing a number of Southeast Asian nations to begin reconsidering nuclear vitality. In 2024, knowledge facilities consumed 415TWh, or 1.5% of the world’s electrical energy, in keeping with the Worldwide Vitality Company; the group additionally famous energy utilization had risen by 12% yearly over the previous 5 years.
“Unlike weather-dependent renewables like solar and wind energy, nuclear gives round-the-clock low-carbon electricity,” explains Tan-Soo of NUS. “That matters in Southeast Asia because electricity demand is rising fast, grids are uneven and governments want cleaner power without sacrificing reliability.”
Indonesia added nuclear energy to its vitality plan final yr, with hopes to construct two small modular reactors (SMRs) by 2034. Thailand desires so as to add 600 MW of nuclear producing capability by 2037.
Advances in nuclear expertise, like SMRs, have made trendy nuclear crops safer, in keeping with Alvin Chew, a senior analysis fellow at NTU. SMRs are reactors of as much as 300 MW per unit, that are about one third the scale of typical giant reactors. SMRs could possibly be higher suited to Southeast Asia, as they are often added to distant areas like islands and be related to smaller or less-developed grids.
Main challenges
But specialists warning in opposition to being too optimistic about nuclear energy, because of gaps in technological and institutional growth.
Many SMR designs are nonetheless within the early phases of commercialization, so “there is no guarantee they will be cheaper, more mobile and safer,” Ian Storey, a principal fellow from Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, explains. “There are only two experimental SMRs in operation, one in China and one in Russia. The rest exist only on paper.”
Others, like Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow on the Council on International Relations, level to low public acceptance for nuclear. “In most of Southeast Asia, except the Philippines where there is very strong support for nuclear energy, members of the public remain cautious about it, especially in countries like Indonesia which have a history of earthquakes and tsunamis,” he explains.
A 2021 survey from NTU reported low assist for nuclear vitality among the many area’s inhabitants. Indonesia was probably the most receptive to nuclear, with 39% assist; Thailand had the bottom share of assist, at simply 3%.
Public considerations might rise as soon as nuclear initiatives get began. “The public’s rating of the risks of nuclear energy will likely change dramatically when presented with an imminent reality closer to home,” suggests Catherine Wong, an environmental sociologist from the College of Amsterdam.
Nuclear crops are additionally capital-intensive and time-consuming to construct. “Nuclear is hard to do well,” explains Tan-Soo. “It requires a capable regulator, long-term political continuity, strong utilities, grid readiness, emergency planning, waste arrangements, and financing discipline. For many countries, those institutional requirements are often more difficult than the technology itself.”
Lastly, there’s the safety dimension. “The 21st century era of drone and cyber warfare makes nuclear power even harder to secure,” Wong suggests. That’s in distinction to extra decentralized renewable vitality: “You can take out five or even fifty wind turbines, and there will still be hundreds more spread across the country supplying electricity to the population.”
