Seize a espresso — as a result of whereas headlines scream struggle, oil shocks, and AI nervousness, one Wall Avenue strategist says the panic might already be priced in. Beneath February’s volatility, a quieter shift could possibly be forming as March assessments whether or not worry has overshot actuality.
- Crypto Information of the Day: March Might Be the Market’s Turning Level, Tom Lee Says
- Markets Usually Backside When Worry Peaks
- Oil Shock, However Not a Recession Set off
- A Dovish Fed?
- Crypto within the “Final Stages” of Bottoming
- Progress Scare or Simply Danger Premium?
- Chart of the Day
- Byte-Sized Alpha
- Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview
Crypto Information of the Day: March Might Be the Market’s Turning Level, Tom Lee Says
As geopolitical tensions rise and traders digest a unstable February, Tom Lee is making a contrarian name: March may mark a decisive rebound throughout equities and crypto.
The Head of Analysis at Fundstrat International Advisors believes markets are as soon as once more reacting to headlines reasonably than fundamentals.
Regardless of fears of escalating battle within the Center East and renewed oil volatility, Lee argues that historical past favors resilience, not retreat.
“I think March is going to likely be an up month,” Lee stated in a current tv look, pushing again in opposition to the prevailing warning that adopted February’s weak point.
Markets Usually Backside When Worry Peaks
Lee’s thesis hinges on a well-known market sample: equities are inclined to unload into geopolitical buildups, solely to get better as soon as uncertainty crests.
Whereas the spike in volatility has rattled traders, he doesn’t see a structural deterioration within the US financial system. In prior geopolitical episodes, markets have sometimes stabilized as soon as the worst-case situations fail to materialize.
“The worst of the selloff is going to happen this week,” Lee stated, suggesting that danger premiums might already replicate elevated nervousness.
His view implies that February’s drawdown was extra about sentiment than systemic stress, setting the stage for a March rebound.
Oil Shock, However Not a Recession Set off
Vitality markets stay central to investor considerations. Rising crude costs threaten to filter by provide chains, strain customers, and revive inflation fears.
Lee doesn’t dismiss the inflationary affect. Oil, he famous, touches practically each nook of the worldwide financial system. However traditionally, oil shocks have tended to tip economies into recession solely when development was already fragile.
“That’s not where we are,” he emphasised.
As a substitute of signaling an imminent downturn, Lee sees the oil spike as a short lived worth shock. Whereas it could pressure sentiment and shopper psychology in an inflation-sensitive setting, he doesn’t consider it’s going to basically derail US development.
A Dovish Fed?
Crucially, Lee argues that energy-driven volatility may nudge policymakers in a extra accommodative route.
Reasonably than deciphering greater oil costs as a purpose to tighten coverage, Lee suggests the Federal Reserve might lean dovish if power prices threaten to gradual exercise. This aligns with current assertions from former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
IRAN CONFLICT MAY DELAY FED RATE CUTS
Janet Yellen says the Iran battle is prone to gradual U.S. development and push inflation greater, making the Federal Reserve extra cautious on slicing charges.
Rising oil costs—particularly if disruption within the Strait of Hormuz persists—may hold…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 2, 2026
In line with Lee, nonetheless, policymakers would seemingly prioritize cushioning development dangers reasonably than mechanically reacting to headline inflation. This mirrors current remarks from economics Professor Steve Hanke in a press release to BeInCrypto.
“Commodity prices move; those are relative to the prices of other goods, other services, and so forth. But it depends on what the central banks do because all inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” Hanke instructed BeInCrypto.
That dynamic, if realized, may present a supportive backdrop for danger property into the spring.
Crypto within the “Final Stages” of Bottoming
Lee extends his rebound thesis past equities to digital property. He believes software program shares, the “Magnificent Seven,” and crypto are within the “final stages” of bottoming.
Whereas acknowledging that the market stays in what many describe as a crypto winter, he factors to strengthening fundamentals beneath the floor.
On Ethereum, Lee argues that increasing tokenization exercise, together with the regular rollout of tokenized funds, is constructing long-term worth.
If financial exercise more and more migrates onto Ethereum’s community, he believes worth appreciation will finally comply with. That is as soon as capital rotates again from conventional arduous property like gold and silver.
In brief, Lee sees the divergence between worth and underlying growth as momentary.
Progress Scare or Simply Danger Premium?
Considerations about widening credit score spreads and personal credit score stress have fueled speak of a broader development scare. Lee stays unconvinced.
He factors to indicators reminiscent of trucking rejection charges as proof that the financial system could also be stabilizing and even accelerating, reasonably than contracting.
To him, February “felt worse than it was.” Markets, down modestly on the month, have been grappling with an elevated danger premium reasonably than collapsing fundamentals.
If Lee is correct, March may problem the prevailing narrative, arriving “like a bear,” however exiting like a bull.
Chart of the Day
S&P 500 and VIX. Supply: TradingView
This chart reveals the S&P 500 (black line) holding comparatively secure by the second half of February whereas the VIX (blue line) experiences sharp swings, together with a notable spike towards the tip of the month.
When the VIX rises, it displays growing demand for draw back safety, primarily, rising investor nervousness.
Nonetheless, on this case, regardless of volatility surging, the S&P 500 didn’t collapse proportionally. That implies the danger premium expanded sooner than the precise worth injury.
Byte-Sized Alpha
Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview
FirmShut As of March 2Pre-Market OverviewTechnique (MSTR)$137.65$132.77 (-3.55%)Coinbase (COIN)$185.24$177.99 (-3.91%)Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)$21.73$20.65 (-4.97%)MARA Holdings (MARA)$9.45$9.03 (-4.44%)Riot Platforms (RIOT)$16.43$15.86 (-3.47%)Core Scientific (CORZ)$16.49$15.99 (-3.03%)Crypto equities market open race: Google Finance
