With President Donald Trump calling for regime change in Iran, the nation’s management now faces an existential risk and is probably going to reply to U.S.-Israeli airstrikes accordingly, consultants stated.
Thus far, the Islamic Republic seems to be launching fewer missiles and drones in retaliation in comparison with its barrage in June 2025, when the U.S. joined Israel’s 12-day warfare on Iran to focus on nuclear services.
However retired Admiral James Stavridis, former NATO supreme allied commander, instructed CNN on Saturday that Iran has two choices. One is to proceed launching missiles on the present tempo and hunker down.
“Option two: if they truly believe they’re at the end of the string, they could go big and that would mean closing the Strait of Hormuz, conducting terrorist attacks against American diplomats, businessmen and citizens in the region and elsewhere,” he added. “They could unleash what’s left of their proxies, notably the Houthis who could try to shut down shipping again through the Suez Canal. So they have a lot of cards still to play.”
Power analysts have warned that closing the Strait of Hormuz, via which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, may ship Brent crude costs hovering to $100 a barrel.
Earlier than the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes, Iran performed army workout routines close to the strait to exhibit that risk, although there aren’t any indications but that it’s making an attempt to take action now.
Preliminary U.S. airstrikes on Saturday additionally reportedly focused Iranian naval belongings within the Persian Gulf, doubtlessly degrading Tehran’s potential to close down the strait. Trump vowed to obliterate Iran’s navy.
Stavridis additionally recalled teachings from historic Chinese language army strategist Solar Tzu, who recommended discovering a means out of conflicts with out truly preventing—however preventing when on “death ground.”
“I think the Iranian leadership may feel they are on death ground. I’d look for them to go big,” he predicted.
In the meantime, Colin Clarke, government director of the Soufan Middle safety advisory agency, additionally warned that Iran may resort to excessive measures to retaliate, together with terrorism.
“For Iran, this war is existential. And because it is, I would fully expect Tehran to activate any sleeper cell capacity it has in the West to make this painful for the U.S. & Israel. Hezbollah and other assets could very well seek to conduct attacks in Europe, North America, etc.,” he posted on X.
Thomas Warrick , a scholar on the Atlantic Council and a former deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism coverage within the Division of Homeland Safety, equally raised the likelihood that Iran will use “asymmetric” ways in opposition to the U.S.
In a weblog put up, he stated the regime will seemingly goal Trump and different high U.S. officers, placing strain on the FBI, Secret Service, and Capitol Police.
“Iran will try every cyber trick it can mount, testing the Department of Homeland Security, the private sector, and U.S. cyber defenses,” Warrick added. “Iran tried in the past, unsuccessfully, to meddle in U.S. elections, and would almost certainly fail to have any impact this time. Even though the United States imports very little oil from the Middle East, energy prices may spike, setting back the U.S. economy.”
