Bitcoin’s (BTC) newest restoration has lifted sentiment throughout crypto markets, with merchants pointing to renewed momentum after weeks of uneven value motion.
Nonetheless, the rebound has additionally revived one thing else: recent allegations towards Jane Avenue, a world quantitative buying and selling agency and main liquidity supplier. However how a lot of the circulating narrative is supported by proof, and the way a lot stays speculative? As the idea resurfaces, separating verifiable info from on-line conjecture has change into important.
Jane Avenue’s Alleged 10 AM Bitcoin Promote-Off: Manipulation Idea or Market Fable?
Jane Avenue is dominating Crypto Twitter discussions, and the surge in consideration extends past social media. Google Tendencies knowledge reveals that search curiosity for “Jane Street Bitcoin” lately reached an all-time excessive. This means a pointy rise in public curiosity.
Search Curiosity for Jane Avenue Bitcoin. Supply: Google Tendencies
What’s driving this renewed focus? A easy search on X reveals quite a few posts linking Jane Avenue to Bitcoin’s value motion. On the middle of the dialogue are allegations of a so-called 10 AM Jap Time Bitcoin sell-off sample.
Since 2024, Zero Hedge has repeatedly pointed to what it describes as a recurring sample. In response to him, Bitcoin usually experiences a pointy decline round 10 AM ET. Jane Avenue is steadily named in reference to the idea.
$BTC has been persistently dumping ~2-3% inside minutes of the US money open (10 a.m. ET) nearly each buying and selling day since early November. Many merchants level to Jane Avenue’s huge $2.5B+ place in BlackRock’s IBIT because the possible driver: engineered liquidity sweeps to build up… pic.twitter.com/jvk7wcBApz
— Whale Issue (@WhaleFactor) December 9, 2025
Related allegations surfaced in December 2025.
“Jane Street is one of the largest high-frequency trading firms in the world. They have the speed and liquidity to move markets for a few minutes. The behavior looks simple: 1. Dump BTC at the open. 2. Push the price into liquidity pockets. 3. Re-enter lower. 4. Repeat daily,” Bull Idea posted.
On the time, BeInCrypto reported that no regulator, change, or unbiased knowledge supply had confirmed any coordinated exercise. Notably, new allegations towards Jane Avenue surfaced lately after Terraform Labs’ administrator sued the buying and selling agency.
“Who crashed Luna and UST to 0 and brought down the entire crypto market in 2022? Jane Street. The same Jane Street accused of ‘10AM manipulation’ also front-ran the 2022 Terra collapse,” Ash Crypto mentioned.
And there it’s: Jane Avenue was behind the 2022 crypto winter, destroying Terraform by first depegging the token and destroying the ecosystem, then pretending it might rescue Terra, whereas successfully it was absorbing what little worth remained. pic.twitter.com/Wo9HnBHAoP
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 24, 2026
Jane Avenue has denied any wrongdoing and said that it intends to defend itself in court docket. Nonetheless, some analysts began making connections between the lawsuit’s timing and Bitcoin’s value.
A number of commentators on X have alleged that the authorized motion towards Jane Avenue might have paused the supposed 10 AM sell-offs. In response to this narrative, the absence of the beforehand noticed intraday declines allowed Bitcoin’s value to climb over the previous two days.
That is INSANE.
Since Jane Avenue was sued two days in the past, the ten AM manipulation has stopped.
Bitcoin is up 10%, including $120 billion to its market cap, and the BTC weekly candle has turned inexperienced after 5 consecutive purple candles.
The whole crypto market has added practically $200… pic.twitter.com/4dCrFewTE4
— Bull Idea (@BullTheoryio) February 25, 2026
In an in depth put up, Justin Bechler instructed that the alleged “daily flash crashes” had beforehand stopped after the Terraform Labs lawsuit filings grew to become public early final 12 months.
Nonetheless, he claims the ten AM sample later resumed in Q3 2025. By December, he mentioned, the intraday declines had returned with full power.
“Basically, the 10 am dumps stopped the moment Jane Street had lawyers looking over its shoulder, and started again when the heat died down,” he wrote. “Bitcoin should be at least $150,000 right now, and everyone knows it. Yesterday, a federal lawsuit was filed in Manhattan that explains exactly why it isn’t.”
Bechler additional famous that Jane Avenue disclosed a big IBIT place in its This fall 2025 13F submitting. It additionally sharply elevated its MicroStrategy holdings.
“This looks like bullish accumulation if you don’t understand what Jane Street actually is. Jane Street is one of only four firms authorized to conduct in-kind creations and redemptions for IBIT. The others are Virtu Americas, JP Morgan Securities, and Marex. Jane Street is also an authorized participant for Fidelity’s and WisdomTree’s Bitcoin ETFs,” he mentioned.
In response to him, this position offers the agency “direct access to the mechanism that connects ETF share prices to actual Bitcoin.” Bechler said that Jane Avenue can switch Bitcoin out and in of the ETF construction, arbitrage value variations between the fund and the spot market, and maintain stock positions on a scale far past that of a typical market participant.
He additionally added {that a} 13F solely reveals lengthy inventory positions however doesn’t require disclosure of choices, futures, or swaps.
“When Jane Street reports holding $790 million in IBIT shares, the filing tells you nothing about whether those shares are hedged by puts, offset by short futures, or wrapped in a collar that makes the firm’s net Bitcoin exposure zero or even negative,” he remarked.
He famous that the general public solely sees what seems to be an accumulation. In actuality, the place may symbolize a major quick publicity that resembles an extended, because the offsetting leg of the commerce stays hidden underneath present disclosure guidelines.
A Kind 13F, he added, is merely a snapshot of 1 aspect of the steadiness sheet. The opposite aspect isn’t seen to anybody outdoors the agency.
“If the firm holds $790 million in IBIT shares and offsets that position with $790 million in put options or short futures, the net exposure is zero. If the derivative book exceeds the equity position, the net exposure is negative, meaning Jane Street profits when Bitcoin’s price falls. In either scenario, the firm has every incentive to use its privileged position as authorized participant to suppress the spot price, trigger liquidations, and harvest the spread,” Bechler commented.
The Counterarguments: Volatility, Not Villainy
Not everyone seems to be satisfied. A number of analysts pushed again, arguing the ten AM sample is overstated. Julio Moreno, Head of Analysis at CryptoQuant, instantly questioned the narrative.
He famous that the mechanics described, shopping for Bitcoin on the spot market and promoting futures, aren’t uncommon. In response to Moreno, that is “what any other delta neutral fund does.”
Moreno additionally pointed to the shortage of a broader market context within the dialogue. He confused that total Bitcoin spot demand development has been collapsing since early October 2025, a development he described as an apparent driver of the value decline.
Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, additionally weighed in. He argued that Bitcoin has traditionally rallied into early March throughout each midterm 12 months. He added that every market cycle tends to provide its personal narrative to clarify value actions.
“Bitcoin price action is not a manipulated conspiracy,” he wrote.
Moreover, Jeff Park, chief funding officer at ProCap and an adviser to Bitwise, instructed that the talk displays a misunderstanding of how ETF plumbing really works.
He talked about that the deal with particular person corporations, similar to Jane Avenue, overlooks the structural mechanics governing all Licensed Members (APs) throughout the Bitcoin ETF framework.
Everyone seems to be asking: “Is Jane Street why Bitcoin isn’t at $150k?”
As anticipated, the reply is trickier than the query. Nevertheless it’s additionally extra structurally unsettling than the conspiracy idea itself—and when you perceive the precise mechanics, you will not have the ability to unsee them👇 pic.twitter.com/iLEeJpDeo4
— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 25, 2026
Customers on X additionally started declaring that Jane Avenue appeared to have deleted each put up from its account following the lawsuit. This additional fueled hypothesis on-line.
Nonetheless, that declare was rapidly debunked. Economist Alex Krüger clarified that Jane Avenue had no posts on its X account to start with.
Why the ten AM Jane Avenue sell-off Idea Resonates
Retail merchants have watched Bitcoin shrug off bullish developments, together with MicroStrategy purchases and a good regulatory surroundings, whereas value motion remained weak and sentiment slid into excessive worry. In that context, a easy and identifiable clarification could be compelling.
The obvious pause within the alleged 10 AM sample following a high-profile lawsuit suits neatly right into a correlation-as-causation narrative that usually beneficial properties traction on Crypto Twitter.
Nonetheless, correlation doesn’t represent proof. For now, the ten AM idea stays merely an allegation, not a reality.
