World Liberty Monetary worth, or the WLFI worth, surged practically 20% over the previous 24 hours, triggering optimism throughout holders. However three separate metrics now reveal hidden dangers beneath the floor energy.
Distribution occurring throughout whale cohorts and mid-term holders getting ready exits create consolidation stress that would derail the sample completely. Or, is the WLFI worth motion planning a plot twist right here?
Cup Sample Wants Managed Consolidation Above $0.105
The 8-hour chart reveals a rounded backside construction resembling a cup. The cup itself has already accomplished, given the latest worth restoration. Now WLFI must kind the deal with by means of managed consolidation earlier than trying the subsequent breakout.
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The important thing element is the upsloping neckline connecting the rim of the cup on each side. The left rim fashioned at an earlier excessive whereas the fitting rim sits at the next degree. This upward slope signifies that patrons are keen to pay larger costs over time, creating structural energy. The neckline have to be damaged upward to finish the sample and set off the measured 17% transfer.
Between February 4 and February 18, a hidden bearish divergence fashioned on the 8-hour timeframe. WLFI worth made a decrease excessive after peaking at $0.119. Throughout that very same interval, the Relative Power Index made the next excessive. RSI measures momentum energy by evaluating the magnitude of latest positive aspects to latest losses.
WLFI Worth Construction: TradingView
When worth makes decrease highs, however RSI makes larger highs, it alerts {that a} pullback might be coming.
The divergence might really be constructive for the sample. Cup formations require a deal with to finish correctly. The deal with kinds by means of sideways or slight downward worth motion that shakes out weak arms earlier than the subsequent explosive transfer.
The essential degree is $0.105. So long as WLFI consolidates with out breaking beneath this assist, the sample and breakout chance stay intact. A measured transfer from the cup’s low to the neckline initiatives a breakout goal of $0.142, representing roughly 17% further upside from the potential breakout level.
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Mega-Whales Bought 1.1 Billion Tokens as Lengthy Positions Diverged
Whereas new whale cohorts accrued roughly 25 million WLFI tokens through the previous 24 hours, the biggest holders moved in the other way.
Mega-whale addresses holding greater than 1 billion tokens have been steadily lowering their positions since February 6. On February 17, through the worth rally, they dropped holdings dramatically from 9.45 billion to eight.35 billion WLFI. That represents 1.1 billion tokens bought straight into the energy.
The worth didn’t crash as a result of smaller whales and leveraged lengthy positions absorbed the promoting.
However the distribution creates overhead stress.
Knowledge from Hyperliquid derivatives trade reveals diverging habits throughout completely different WLFI dealer cohorts over the previous 24 hours. Normal whale addresses elevated their lengthy positions by 68%, exhibiting continued optimism.
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However the prime 100 addresses (mega whales) by buying and selling quantity diminished lengthy positions considerably.
Sensible Cash, which tracks positioning by skilled merchants, reveals a web brief place over the previous 24 hours, hinting at warning.
This creates a harmful setup the place smaller contributors are shopping for and including leverage whereas the biggest and most subtle gamers distribute and place defensively.
The rally relied on smaller whale shopping for and leverage fairly than conviction from mega-whales. If consolidation turns into a protracted squeeze the place leveraged longs get compelled to promote, the pullback might speed up past the wholesome deal with formation wanted for sample completion.
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Mid-Time period Holders Activate 500 Million Tokens for Exit, May This Affect the WLFI Worth?
The third warning comes from on-chain exercise metrics. Spent Cash Age Band tracks coin motion from particular holder cohorts primarily based on how lengthy they held the tokens. The 90-day to 180-day age band represents mid-term holders who acquired WLFI between three and 6 months in the past.
Earlier than February 17, this cohort confirmed exercise of roughly 949,000 tokens transferring. Between February 17 and 18, that quantity exploded to over 500 million tokens.
This represents a 500-times improve in coin exercise from mid-term WLFI holders. When holders who sat by means of months of worth motion all of a sudden activate cash en masse, it sometimes means preparation for exit. They see the 20% rally as their alternative to take earnings after months of ready. The five hundred million tokens transferring creates vital potential promoting stress on prime of the 1.1 billion already bought by mega-whales and the cautious positioning by Sensible Cash.
All three dangers level towards consolidation. The 8-hour chart RSI divergence predicts it. Mega-whales promoting 1.1 billion confirms it. Mid-term holders activating 500 million validates it. The consolidation is wholesome and obligatory for deal with formation if it stays managed above $0.105 and respects the upsloping neckline. However the market stays weak broadly.
Fibonacci extension to the draw back initiatives $0.090 or decrease if the sample breaks, invalidating your entire setup.
On the upside, breaking above $0.119 reactivates bullish momentum with first resistance at $0.132 earlier than the primary sample goal of $0.142. The $0.105 degree decides all the pieces. Managed consolidation above it permits the cup to finish its deal with. Breakdown beneath it turns the distribution right into a cascade.
