Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 23.4% to date this yr, after declining greater than 6% in 2025. Costs have remained beneath sustained stress, with the main cryptocurrency presently buying and selling at $67,214.
Amid this, a key query continues to weigh on market sentiment: when will the Bitcoin downtrend finish? 4 key alerts recommend that the asset should be within the early phases of a bear market, elevating the potential for additional draw back.
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Capital Flight Confirms Bearish Sentiment Shift
Investor movement knowledge sends the primary warning signal. CryptoQuant knowledge confirmed new investor inflows have turned destructive. An analyst stated this means the continued sell-off isn’t being absorbed by new capital coming into the market.
Bitcoin New Investor Flows Flip Unfavourable. Supply: CryptoQuant
The analyst defined that in bull markets, capital tends to speed up throughout value drawdowns, as traders deal with dips as shopping for alternatives. In distinction, the early phases of bear markets are sometimes marked by capital withdrawal amid weak spot.
“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows. Without renewed inflows, upside moves remain corrective. This behavior is consistent with early bear market conditions: contracting liquidity and narrowing participation,” the analyst added.
Technical Sample Alerts Room for One other Leg Decrease in Bitcoin
Crypto analyst Jelle pointed to historic cycle knowledge to border the present draw back danger. He defined that in earlier main bear markets, value bottomed under the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement measured from the prior cycle peak.
The earliest cycle noticed a considerably deeper transfer, with Bitcoin falling roughly 64% past the 0.618 stage. In later cycles, nevertheless, the depth of these breakdowns moderated.
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The latest bear market backside fashioned about 45% under that retracement threshold, reflecting a sample of progressively shallower declines.
“0.618 from the current cycle high sits at $57,000. If Bitcoin bottoms just 30% below the 0.618 retracement this time around, we’re still looking at $42,000,” the analyst remarked.
This means the worth might fall additional. Moreover, different consultants have beforehand forecasted that Bitcoin might discover a backside even under $40,000.
Market Cycle Indicator Factors to Additional Draw back Danger
As well as, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which tracks broader market phases, alerts that bearish situations started in October 2025. Nevertheless, the metric has not but entered what is often categorised as an excessive bear section.
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In earlier cycles, the indicator has moved into the dark-blue zone, suggesting that decrease ranges should lie forward.
Whales Stack BTC, But Restoration Could Take Time
Lastly, on-chain knowledge reveals that Bitcoin whales have been accumulating in the course of the latest dip, as trade outflows proceed to rise. The 30-day easy shifting common of trade outflows has climbed to three.2%.
WHALES ARE BUYING THE DIP
This chart reveals the proportion of trade balances flowing out to massive entities every day.
For the reason that drop under $80k, the 30-day SMA of this indicator has step by step risen to three.2%. This mirrors the construction seen in H1 2022, when whales collected… pic.twitter.com/VSxeIepxOm
— CryptoVizArt.₿ (@CryptoVizArt) February 11, 2026
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This sample carefully mirrors the primary half of 2022. Though whale accumulation is commonly interpreted as a constructive sign, historical past suggests warning. Within the earlier cycle, a broader restoration didn’t materialize till early 2023.
The similarity in construction means that whereas sensible cash could also be positioning, it doesn’t essentially imply a direct rebound is imminent. As a substitute, the information implies that the market might stay beneath stress within the close to time period, at the same time as long-term holders proceed to construct publicity.
Individually, Kaiko evaluation advised that Bitcoin nonetheless seems to be monitoring its conventional four-year cycle. Based mostly on that framework, the agency said,
“The four-year cycle framework predicts we should be at the 30% mark.”
Taken collectively, these 4 indicators level to the chance that Bitcoin might stay beneath stress. Nevertheless, when the bear market will finish stays a degree of division amongst consultants.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, stated it’s unlikely that Bitcoin will see a V-shaped restoration earlier than the summer season of 2026. Julio Moreno, Head of Analysis at CryptoQuant, has additionally advised that the present bearish section might finish in Q3 2026.
In distinction, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has expressed a extra optimistic view, indicating that the tip of the crypto winter could possibly be approaching.
